????展望未來(lái)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)五股力量將合力加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本生態(tài)體系：

????1. 顛覆: 社交/局域/移動(dòng)/web 2.0是實(shí)現(xiàn)人類(lèi)前所未見(jiàn)偉大動(dòng)力，將帶來(lái)顛覆和革新。

????2. 創(chuàng)業(yè)者: 投入到創(chuàng)業(yè)的熱情空前高漲。

????3. 天使投資: 天使投資者的種子基金已經(jīng)遍地開(kāi)花，將繼續(xù)成長(zhǎng)。

????4. 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資金供應(yīng)減少。

????5. 退出機(jī)制豐富，成長(zhǎng)道路寬廣。

????1. 顛覆。移動(dòng)、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、云和“數(shù)碼土著”一代正在改變一切。他們已經(jīng)比個(gè)人電腦的浪潮來(lái)勢(shì)更兇猛，并將帶來(lái)更大變革。耐用品的銷(xiāo)售和媒體（電影、書(shū)刊和音樂(lè)）已被徹底顛覆。本地商家現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)感受到風(fēng)暴將至。醫(yī)療保健和教育不相信會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊，咱們等著瞧。數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元的現(xiàn)存市值將被摧毀，而顛覆者將創(chuàng)造更大的價(jià)值。

????2. 創(chuàng)業(yè)者。我有四個(gè)兒子，其中一個(gè)明年將升入大學(xué)。他現(xiàn)在就已經(jīng)想成為高科技的創(chuàng)業(yè)者。當(dāng)年我們讀大學(xué)的時(shí)候，那可不是主流選擇。但是今天的楷模正在穿著連帽衫奔忙于上市路演，創(chuàng)業(yè)隊(duì)伍中的學(xué)生軍也不再是神話(huà)傳說(shuō)，而像Facebook這樣的科技平臺(tái)公司極大地降低了靠軟件發(fā)家的生意門(mén)檻。

????3. 天使在飛翔。2010年，天使投資者向6.19萬(wàn)家公司投入201億美元。當(dāng)《就業(yè)法案》（JOBS Act）的大眾融資條款在2013年1月生效時(shí)，我們相信公司的數(shù)目將急劇增長(zhǎng)，達(dá)到數(shù)十萬(wàn)量級(jí)。大眾融資法限定每家公司每年向大眾融資不超過(guò)100萬(wàn)美元。這筆錢(qián)足夠讓公司生產(chǎn)原型產(chǎn)品，但要商業(yè)化或者上規(guī)模則遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。風(fēng)投將會(huì)有巨大的機(jī)會(huì)帶領(lǐng)其中最優(yōu)秀的公司和創(chuàng)業(yè)者走出下一步。

????Looking forward, we see five converging forces that will strengthen the venture capital ecosystem:

????1. Disruption: Social/local/mobile/web 2.0 is the greatest engine for disruption and innovation man has yet seen

????2. Entrepreneurs: There has never been more energy for creating businesses

????3. Angels: Seed funding by angels has bloomed and will grow further

????4. Reduced Supply of venture capital

????5. Exits are way up, and the road is paved for growth

????1. Disruption. Mobile, social networks, the cloud, and the "digital native" generation are changing everything. They are already growing faster, and will be much bigger than the PC wave. Hard goods retailing and media (movies, books, and music) have already been uprooted by this tsunami. Local commerce feels the storm rising now. Healthcare and education don't believe it will hit them – just wait. Trillions of dollars of existing market value will be destroyed, and the disruptors will create even more value.

????2. Entrepreneurs. One of our sons is going to college next year and wants to be a technology entrepreneur. That was not a mainstream choice when we went to college. But today's role models are on IPO road shows dressed in hoodies, student-entrepreneurs have cred and technology platform companies like Facebook have dramatically lowered the hurdle for software-based businesses.

????3. Angels Take Flight. In 2010, angels invested $20.1 billion into 61,900 companies. When the crowdfunding provision of the JOBS Act goes live in January 2013, we think that number will grow dramatically – into the hundreds of thousands. The crowdfunding bill limits annual fundraising per company from the "crowd" to $1 million. That's enough money to prototype a company, but not enough to commercialize or scale it. There will be huge opportunity for VCs to carry the best companies and entrepreneurs forward.