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Facebook焦頭爛額,LinkedIn風(fēng)景獨(dú)好

Facebook焦頭爛額,LinkedIn風(fēng)景獨(dú)好

Kevin Kelleher 2012年05月28日
過(guò)去,與Facebook相比,職業(yè)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn顯得沒什么吸引力。但現(xiàn)在時(shí)來(lái)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),LinkedIn成了投資者的避風(fēng)港。Facebook更像是不諳世事的年輕人熱衷的游戲,而LinkedIn則是成年人的職業(yè)平臺(tái),后者顯然對(duì)投資者具有更高的商業(yè)價(jià)值。

????上周,F(xiàn)acebook的投資者們憤怒不已,該公司的承銷商也極為尷尬,而批評(píng)者們則幸災(zāi)樂(lè)禍,我不禁被這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題所困擾:假如說(shuō)這么多投資者都不看好Facebook 的首次公開募股,認(rèn)為估價(jià)過(guò)高,他們?yōu)楹稳匀皇挚春蒙虅?wù)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn?

????同F(xiàn)acebook 一樣,LinkedIn是一家社交媒體先鋒,打造了穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)且盈利的業(yè)務(wù)。通過(guò)建立一個(gè)社區(qū),讓人們之間定期互動(dòng),兩家公司成為了社交網(wǎng)站中的翹楚。Facebook與LinkedIn都利用自身用戶的個(gè)人資料賺錢。兩家公司都是作為技術(shù)界最熱門新領(lǐng)域的代表進(jìn)軍股票市場(chǎng)。

????兩家公司都選擇在5月中旬上市:Facebook是2012年,正值希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)和歐元區(qū)危機(jī),投資者信心普遍備受打擊之際;而LinkedIn則是2011年,當(dāng)時(shí)希臘及歐元區(qū)問(wèn)題也正如火如荼,市場(chǎng)信心同樣不足。不過(guò)Facebook目前股價(jià)相比其發(fā)行價(jià)已下跌16%,而LinkedIn當(dāng)前股價(jià)比發(fā)行價(jià)足足上漲了130%。

????當(dāng)然,LinkedIn在IPO后也飽受挫折。LinkedIn在上市首日,股價(jià)便上漲超過(guò)100%,達(dá)到122.70美元,但僅一月之后,其股價(jià)迅速下挫,最低探至60.14美元。本月初,LinkedIn股價(jià)又重新回到120.63美元。換句話說(shuō),F(xiàn)acebook投資者們也許能從中看到自己股票一年之后咸魚翻身的情形。但話說(shuō)回來(lái),這也并非板上釘釘之事。Facebook認(rèn)股權(quán)證的投資者們正雙倍買入看跌期權(quán),很多人都下注該公司股票到12月將跌破每股22美元。

????這種看跌情緒也可以理解,鑒于Facebook發(fā)行價(jià)定為每股38美元,即公司估值相當(dāng)于其年?duì)I收的26倍,相當(dāng)于其年凈利潤(rùn)額的100倍以上(目前這兩個(gè)比例已分別下降至21倍和74倍)。不過(guò)LinkedIn目前市值相當(dāng)于其營(yíng)收的17倍,與其近期凈利潤(rùn)相比,比例則高達(dá)700倍之多。Facebook目前股價(jià)較其上周五(5月18日)的發(fā)行價(jià)已大幅下跌24%,而同期LinkedIn股價(jià)僅下滑1%。

????Facebook股價(jià)下滑的主要原因是自己在首次公開發(fā)行上犯了愚蠢錯(cuò)誤——向熱門投資者們通告了較疲弱的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期,而這些數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自Facebook自己和為了挽回顏面的證券分析師們,然后內(nèi)部人士又宣布待售股票數(shù)量增多,同時(shí)提高發(fā)行價(jià)格。至于華爾街為什么在Facebook首次公開發(fā)行前對(duì)其股票給出“賣出”評(píng)級(jí)的,目前還不得而知。

????上周五,在開盤后最初幾個(gè)小時(shí),LinkedIn股價(jià)并未大幅波動(dòng)。不過(guò),隨著剛剛上市的Facebook股票上漲無(wú)力之勢(shì)愈加明顯,LinkedIn股價(jià)也開始聞風(fēng)下跌。LinkedIn在收盤時(shí)跌幅達(dá)到了6%,而Facebook股價(jià)較其發(fā)行價(jià)幾乎原地踏步。其它互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司股票也受到Facebook拖累:社交游戲公司Zynga下跌了14%,團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon和在線音樂(lè)服務(wù)商Pandora均下跌7%。從本周四的收盤情況看,自Facebook上市交易以來(lái),LinkedIn的股價(jià)下跌了約1%,同時(shí)Pandora和Groupon的股價(jià)也下跌了1%左右。

????這種情況或許表明,投資者們開始意識(shí)到,F(xiàn)acebook不會(huì)波及其它近期IPO的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司——除了Zynga,因?yàn)槠錉I(yíng)收嚴(yán)重依賴于Facebook。但這并不能解釋為什么這些人會(huì)重新轉(zhuǎn)向LinkedIn,一個(gè)市盈率要比Facebook高出許多的社交網(wǎng)站。

????原因可能在于投資者們注意到了其它因素:其中之一是LinkedIn的未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)率要高于Facebook,甚至在Facebook非正式地公布其較低的營(yíng)收指導(dǎo)前,LinkedIn仍要超出一截。在截止3月21日的上個(gè)季度,F(xiàn)acebook營(yíng)收為10.6億美元,增長(zhǎng)45%。LinkedIn的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)率是Facebook兩倍以上,達(dá)到101%,數(shù)額為1.88億美元。

????Amid the anger this week of Facebook investors, the embarrassment of the company's underwriters and the schadenfreude of its detractors, a question has been bugging me: If so many investors are skeptical of Facebook's (FB) overvalued IPO, then why are they still so positive on LinkedIn (LNKD)?

????Like Facebook, LinkedIn is a social-media pioneer that has built up a steadily growing and profitable business. Both have achieved what few social networks have by creating a community of people who regularly interact with each other. Both exploit the personal data of their users to make money. Both entered the stock market as proxies for one of the hottest new areas in technology.

????And both went public in mid-May: Facebook in 2012, while concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets; and LinkedIn in 2011, when concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets. But Facebook is trading around 16% below its offering price, while LinkedIn has gained 130% from its offering price.

????Of course, LinkedIn also sagged after its initial debut. After more than doubling on its first day to $122.70, the stock had drifted down as far as $60.14 a month later. Earlier this month, LinkedIn had rallied back to $120.63. On the one hand, that may give hope to Facebook investors for a similar rebound over the next year. On the other, it may not. Investors in Facebook warrants are buying twice as many puts as calls, with many betting the stock will be below $22 a share by December.

????Such bearishness is understandable, given that Facebook's offering price of $38 a share valued the company at 26 times revenue and more than 100 times profits (it's now down to 21 times revenue and 74 times earnings). But LinkedIn is trading at 17 times its revenue and about 700 times its recent earnings. And while Facebook's stock has dropped 24% from its initial trading price last Friday, LinkedIn is down only 1% over the same period.

????Much of Facebook's slide is due to the ham-fisted bumbling of its IPO – notifying favored investors of weaker growth forecasts from the company and face-saving securities analysts, then announcing more shares for sale by insiders while lifting the offering price. Just how Wall Street managed to slap a sell rating on Facebook shares before the IPO is a tale yet to be told.

????Last Friday, LinkedIn's stock didn't move much for the first couple of hours. But once it became clear that Facebook's newly listed shares were faltering, LinkedIn began to fall, closing the day down 6% while Facebook closed largely unchanged from its offering price. Other web stocks also fell on the Facebook effect: Zynga (ZNGA) was down 14%, Groupon (GRPN) and Pandora (P) were both down 7%. And as of Thursday's close, LinkedIn is down about 1% since Facebook started trading, as are Pandora and Groupon.

????That may suggest that investor disenchantment in Facebook hasn't spread to other recent web IPOs -- except Zynga, since its revenue relies heavily on Facebook's fortunes. But it doesn't explain why investors would return to LinkedIn, when its PE is so much higher than that of Facebook's.

????The reason may be that investors are looking at other metrics, ones that suggest more future growth than Facebook was promising even before its (unofficially) lower guidance. In the quarter ended March 21, Facebook's revenue rose 45% to $1.06 billion. LinkedIn's grew more than twice as fast: 101% to $188 million.

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