????在美國看來，歐債危機(jī)就像是由地域特色鮮明的老套人物扮演的一場荒誕喜劇：吝嗇的盎格魯撒克遜人、不負(fù)責(zé)任的地中海人以及盛氣凌人的布魯塞爾官僚。如果置身其中，這可一點也不好笑。用英格蘭銀行（Bank of England）行長默文?金恩的話講，歐洲正在“分崩離析，看不到顯而易見的解決方案”。

????由于6月17日的第二次希臘大選尚未進(jìn)行，現(xiàn)在很難做出預(yù)測。很多評論人士認(rèn)為，希臘退出歐元區(qū)將成為歐盟大范圍瓦解的前奏。在布魯塞爾，一些歐盟資深人士的看法則正好相反。他們認(rèn)為，一旦歐元大家庭將總是惹事生非的壞小子希臘驅(qū)逐出去，歐元區(qū)將能更緊密地融合在一起，穩(wěn)步前行。到現(xiàn)在為止，我傾向于認(rèn)為不管希臘是否留下，歐洲人應(yīng)該都能應(yīng)付得過去。如果希臘退出，歐元區(qū)將必須想辦法如何啟動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

????緊縮政策已經(jīng)一敗涂地。除了德國，整個歐洲大陸已陷入衰退。為謀求預(yù)算平衡而大幅縮減開支，有太多國家卷入了凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告的惡性循環(huán)：當(dāng)政府縮減開支，需求出現(xiàn)下降，公司進(jìn)行更多裁員，失業(yè)率上升，稅收減少，而預(yù)算赤字卻依然頑固地居高不下。

????很多學(xué)術(shù)派經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家贊成放棄歐元（或?qū)⑵涓臑閮H由德國和歐洲其他核心經(jīng)濟(jì)體采用的貨幣），允許愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、甚至意大利和西班牙將本國貨幣貶值，從而拉動出口。紙上談兵的話，這個方案聽起來還不錯。但歐元區(qū)的無序瓦解將引發(fā)金融混亂，導(dǎo)致銀行擠兌、股市崩盤、更多的政局動蕩，并很可能引發(fā)新一輪的全球衰退。

????一個更溫和的選擇是全歐洲范圍內(nèi)的財政刺激措施，支出側(cè)重外圍成員國家。新任法國總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯?奧朗德支持這一想法。德國總理安格拉?默克爾在接受消費者新聞與商業(yè)頻道（CNBC）電視采訪時表示，她對此持開放態(tài)度。不過，即便實施刺激方案，效果可能也只是暫時的、有限的。要讓歐洲重回增長通道，必須進(jìn)行永久性的債務(wù)免除，將外圍經(jīng)濟(jì)體的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)降至更可控的水平。

????債務(wù)仍是問題之源。如果3月份簽署的第二輪希臘救助方案能按照計劃，一步步實現(xiàn)，希臘原本應(yīng)該已經(jīng)走出困境——但當(dāng)前希臘的債務(wù)/GDP比率仍超過160%，光是為這些債務(wù)支付利息就會消耗掉五分之一的稅收收入，這種日子會持續(xù)多久仍未可知。完全按債權(quán)人要求來做的愛爾蘭，情況也沒好多少。難怪選民們已經(jīng)對緊縮政策喪失了興趣。

????From the U.S., the European debt crisis can seem like a black comedy populated by regional stereotypes: iron-fisted Anglo-Saxons, feckless Mediterraneans, and haughty Brussels bureaucrats. Closer to the action, it isn't funny at all. In the words of Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, Europe is "tearing itself apart with no obvious solution."

????Pending the second Greek election on June 17, it is hard to make predictions. Many commentators see a Greek exit from the euro as the precursor to a broader breakup. In Brussels some EU veterans argue the opposite. They say that once the euro family has ejected Greece, which has always been a problem child, it will come closer together and forge ahead. Until now, my inclination has been that the Europeans would muddle through, with or without the Greeks. But for that to happen, the continent must find a way to kick-start growth.

????Austerity has failed miserably. Outside of Germany, the continent is mired in recession. In seeking to slash their way to a balanced budget, all too many countries have fallen victim to the vicious circle that Keynesian economists warned about: When government spending is cut, demand slumps, firms lay off more workers, unemployment increases, tax revenue falls, and the deficit remains stubbornly high.

????Many academic economists favor abandoning the euro (or restricting it to Germany and a few other core countries) because that would allow nations like Ireland and Portugal, and even Italy and Spain, to devalue their currencies and give their exporters a boost. That looks good on paper. But a disorderly breakup of the euro would create financial chaos. There would be bank runs, stock market collapses, more political instability, and quite possibly another global recession.

????A less drastic option would be a Europe-wide fiscal stimulus, with spending focused on the periphery countries. Fran?ois Hollande, the new French President, supports the idea, and Angela Merkel, in an interview with CNBC, suggested she was open to it. But even if a stimulus program materialized, it would be modest and temporary. To really get Europe back on track, it would need to be combined with permanent debt write-offs designed to bring the financial burdens of the periphery countries down to more manageable levels.

????Debt remains at the root of the problem. If Greece's second bailout, which was agreed upon in March, had worked as planned, the country would have emerged with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 160%, and the interest on that debt would have consumed one in five tax dollars into the indefinite future. Ireland, which has done everything its debtors demanded, is in a similar bind. No wonder voters have tired of austerity.