????美國詩人艾略特在那首著名的《荒原》中把四月稱為最殘忍的月份。不過對(duì)于那些把信心放在科技股上的投資者來說，剛剛過去的五月也令他們很不好過。一向仁慈的五月也成了一個(gè)殘忍的月份。究竟為什么，還沒有一個(gè)明確的原因。

????今年五月，科技板塊發(fā)生了一些奇怪的事。在沒有明確賣出信號(hào)的情況下，科技股似乎一下被股民棄之如敝履。首先是Facebook在上市頭幾日市值就蒸發(fā)了四分之一。Facebook的節(jié)節(jié)敗退也影響到了其他新近IPO的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股。自從Facebook上市后，Groupon的股票下跌了15%，收益相當(dāng)依賴Facebook的社交游戲公司Zynga的股票更是下跌了29%。

????不過許多人都忽略了一點(diǎn)：股民們不僅對(duì)最近IPO的幾支網(wǎng)絡(luò)股反應(yīng)冷淡，而且近來不少老牌藍(lán)籌股也出現(xiàn)了暴跌。Facebook的走勢(shì)雖慘，戴爾（Dell）、思科（Cisco）等歷史悠久的科技股上個(gè)月的表現(xiàn)也很慘淡。與此同時(shí)，其他大牌科技股也出現(xiàn)了意想不到的下跌。對(duì)此沒有什么單獨(dú)的原因可以解釋，可能只是股民們厭倦了科技板的增長。

????從五月初到上周二，納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)已經(jīng)下跌了7%，許多大盤股的表現(xiàn)更差。戴爾股價(jià)下跌23%，思科下跌19%，甲骨文（Oracle）下跌11%，惠普（HP）、微軟（Microsoft）和英特爾（Intel）都下跌了8%。IBM是少數(shù)幾個(gè)表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于納斯達(dá)克綜指的科技公司之一，它只下跌了6%。

????當(dāng)然，從一個(gè)月的交易表現(xiàn)很難推斷出太多，尤其是這個(gè)月，幾乎全球各地都面臨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性。不過以往當(dāng)股市其他板塊出現(xiàn)下跌時(shí)，這些藍(lán)籌科技股歷來被投資者當(dāng)成避風(fēng)港。但是現(xiàn)在當(dāng)廣域市場(chǎng)面臨不確定性時(shí)，投資者們卻有了出售科技股的傾向。

????這究竟是怎么回事？罪魁禍?zhǔn)讘?yīng)該是全球IT支出的下降，歐洲金融危機(jī)和強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元應(yīng)對(duì)此負(fù)主要責(zé)任。據(jù)研究機(jī)構(gòu)高德納公司（Gartner）預(yù)計(jì)，今年全球企業(yè)和政府的IT支出有望達(dá)到3.75萬億美元。不過高德納公司最近把今年全球IT支出增幅的預(yù)測(cè)由之前的3.7%調(diào)低到2.5%。去年由于全球企業(yè)開始走出經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的陰影，因而去年全球IT支出的增幅達(dá)到了6.8%。

????有些領(lǐng)域的表現(xiàn)很可能會(huì)超過其他板塊。比如電信設(shè)備領(lǐng)域今年有望增長6.9%，接近2011年的速度。另外全球在企業(yè)軟件和計(jì)算機(jī)硬件上的支出將分別增長5%和4.3%，增幅都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于去年。電信和IT服務(wù)有望增長1%左右，也遠(yuǎn)低于去年的6%。

????April, as T.S. Eliot famously said, is the cruelest month. But for investors who put their faith in tech stocks, it's hard to look back on the past month and feel good. No, the merry month of May has been cruel. And there's no clear reason why.

????Something strange happened in the tech sector in May. Without a clear sell signal, tech stocks seemed to slip into some kind of investor oblivion. Exhibit A, of course, is the Facebook (FB) IPO, which in its first trading days has lost a quarter of the value that Wall Street's supposedly smartest underwriters thought it was worth. Facebook has pulled down other recent web IPOs as well: Groupon (GRPN) is down 15% since Facebook listed and Zynga (ZNGA), which relies in good part on Facebook for revenue, is down 29%.

????But overlooked in all the coverage about the cold shoulder investors have given to recent web IPOs is the slump that good old-fashioned, blue-chip tech giants have faced. As bad as Facebook has fared since its IPO, old-line tech brands like Dell (DELL) and Cisco (CSCO) have fared just as poorly this month. Meanwhile, others big-name tech stalwarts have also declined unexpectedly. And there's no single piece of bad news to explain it. It's just that investors seem to be weary of tech as a growth sector.

????As of Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite is down 7% so far in May. Many large-cap stocks have fared much worse. Dell is down 23%, Cisco is down 19%, and Oracle (ORCL) is down 11%. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) have all dropped 8%. IBM (IBM) is among the few tech giants that has outperformed the Nasdaq, falling a mere 6%.

????Of course, there is always a risk in extrapolating too much from a single month of stock trading, especially one that faced economic uncertainty in nearly every part of the world. But it used to be these same blue-chip tech names were seen as safe havens when other sectors were declining. Now, investors are inclined to sell tech when the broader market faces uncertainty.

????What gives? The biggest culprit seems to be a broad-based slowdown in the pace of spending on information technology, thanks to financial turmoil in Europe and a stronger dollar. Global IT spending by companies and governments is expected to total $3.75 trillion this year, according to research firm Gartner. But Gartner recently lowered its forecast for the pace of spending. Instead of expecting a 3.7% growth this year, the firm now expects IT spending to rise by only 2.5%. Last year, IT spending grew by 6.8% as companies straightened themselves out after the 2008 crisis.

????Some sectors are likely to fare better than others. Telecom equipment spending is expected to rise by 6.9%, close to the 2011 rate. Spending will rise 5% for enterprise software and 4.3% for computing hardware, both down significantly from last year. Telecom and IT services, however, are expected to grow by about 1%, well below the 6% rate for 2011.