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歐元區(qū)改革:德國勝券在握

歐元區(qū)改革:德國勝券在握

Cyrus Sanati 2012-06-11
德國掌握著歐元權(quán)力斗爭(zhēng)中所有的牌:即便周邊國家經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰,德國經(jīng)濟(jì)依然欣欣向榮,這一切都結(jié)束之后,德國可能最終獲得對(duì)歐元區(qū)的更大掌控力。

????坐在駕駛座上的是德國總理安吉拉?默克爾。

????歐洲越早認(rèn)識(shí)到德國掌握著大部分(如果不是全部)終結(jié)歐元區(qū)債務(wù)危機(jī)的牌,就能越早找到一個(gè)持久的解決方案。擁有經(jīng)濟(jì)正增長(zhǎng)、低失業(yè)率和極低利率的德國并不急于實(shí)施經(jīng)濟(jì)較弱的鄰國提議的改革措施,這些措施會(huì)對(duì)德國的廉價(jià)信貸和擴(kuò)大出口能力構(gòu)成負(fù)面影響。

????能讓這個(gè)歐盟最大成員國確信實(shí)施改革(比如發(fā)行歐元債券)的唯一辦法是看到改革帶來的好處,比如掌控整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的財(cái)政政策。歐元區(qū)其他成員國,如法國,對(duì)于把更多經(jīng)濟(jì)權(quán)力交給布魯塞爾,并最終交給法蘭克福持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。但是,像把歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有債務(wù)匯集起來、阻止危機(jī)蔓延的解決方案是一個(gè)良好的開端,它們需要讓德國看到一些好處并參與進(jìn)來。

????從這場(chǎng)危機(jī)之初,德國總理安吉拉?默克爾就一直被批評(píng)在解決歐元區(qū)危機(jī)問題上不給力?!暗聡谀膬??”、“默克爾未能擔(dān)起領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色”這樣的標(biāo)題充斥著大西洋兩岸報(bào)紙的版面。

????但與歐元區(qū)其他國家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人不同,從兩年多前這場(chǎng)危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,默克爾一直在位。這部分是由于德國的選舉規(guī)定,但德國經(jīng)濟(jì)也是原因——雖然現(xiàn)在有點(diǎn)搖擺不定,但自2010年危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,德國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上一直在改善。2010年德國GDP增長(zhǎng)3.5%,遠(yuǎn)超鄰國。2011年德國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)2.7%,鄰國大多陷入衰退。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家原本預(yù)計(jì)今年一季度可能表現(xiàn)糟糕,但德國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)0.5%,比預(yù)測(cè)值高5倍。

????鑒于德國主要貿(mào)易伙伴國很多是陷入困頓的歐元區(qū)成員國,這或許有些讓人困惑不解,但德國看起來極大地受益于歐元走軟,這增強(qiáng)了德國向非歐元區(qū)國家出口的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。與歐元區(qū)其他國家不同,德國是一個(gè)出口大國,制造全球熱銷的高品質(zhì)產(chǎn)品。諷刺的是,歐元區(qū)危機(jī)反而增強(qiáng)了德國的出口實(shí)力,繼續(xù)成為全球第二大出口經(jīng)濟(jì)體,僅次于中國。

????與此同時(shí),德國也受益于投資者對(duì)德國國債的需求增長(zhǎng)。德國的債務(wù)/GDP比率約為80%,高于陷入困境的西班牙(68%),但德國國債的收益率為零,而西班牙的國債收益率接近7%。本月由于需求旺盛,某些時(shí)候德國國債的收益率甚至變成了負(fù)值。購買德國國債的投資者,從德國銀行到美國養(yǎng)老基金不一而足。但最近,增長(zhǎng)最快的是來自西班牙和希臘的存款人,他們瘋狂地取出畢生積蓄買入德國國債,因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心本國政府可能決定脫離歐元區(qū),貨幣貶值可能將他們的儲(chǔ)蓄毀于一旦。

????In the driver's seat: German Chancellor Angela Merkel

????The faster Europe realizes that Germany holds most, if not all, of the cards when it comes to ending the eurozone debt crisis, the faster a lasting solution can be found. With positive economic growth, low unemployment and fantastically low interest rates, Germany is simply in no rush to implement reforms that have been proposed by its economically weaker neighbors, as they would negatively impact Germany's ability to borrow cheaply and expand exports.

????The only way the EU's biggest member can be convinced to take on reforms, like issuing eurobonds, would be if it were granted incentives, such as control over the fiscal policy of the eurozone. Other members of the eurozone, namely France, have been wary about handing more of their economic power over to Brussels and ultimately to Frankfurt. But while solutions like the pooling of eurozone's existing debt is a good first step to diffusing the crisis, they still require incentives for Germany to get on board.

????Since the start of the crisis, Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel has been accused of dragging her feet when it comes to ending the eurozone crisis. Headlines like, "Where is Germany?" or "Merkel's failure to lead," have graced newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic.

????But unlike nearly every other eurozone leader, Merkel hasn't been thrown out of power since the crisis began more than two year ago. While that is due in part to election rules in Germany, it is also due to Germany's economy, which, while a little wobbly now, has actually improved since the crisis began in 2010. That year, Germany's GDP grew at 3.5% - much faster than its neighbors. In 2011, it grew at 2.7% at the same time most of its neighbors slipped into recession. And while economists had predicted a terrible first quarter for Germany this year, its economy actually grew five times more than expected, at 0.5%.

????That might seem puzzling given that many of Germany's main trading partners are crippled eurozone members, but the country seems to have benefitted greatly from the weakening of the euro, since it has increased the competitiveness of its exports in non-eurozone countries. Unlike the rest of the eurozone, Germany is an exporting powerhouse, making high-quality goods that are in demand across the world. The eurozone crisis has ironically only increased its export strength, continuing to make it the world's second-largest export economy in the world, behind China.

????At the same time, Germany has also benefitted from an increase in investor demand for its debt. Germany has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 80%, which is higher than troubled Spain at 68%, yet its debt is trading at zero, while Spain's debt is trading near 7%. Demand for German debt was so great this month that at some points it actually traded at a negative yield. Investors buying this debt range from German banks to U.S. pension funds. But the big surge in buying lately has come from Spanish and Greek depositors who are frantically withdrawing their life savings and putting them in German bonds on fear that their respective governments will leave the eurozone and destroy their savings through devaluation.

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