????在我們等待決策者們制定計(jì)劃時(shí)，歐洲發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)繼續(xù)惡化。新近發(fā)布的歐洲重要經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)包括：

????? 德國(guó)4月份出口下降1.2%，是今年以來(lái)首度下降（弱于預(yù)期）；

????? 法蘭西銀行（Bank of France）將法國(guó)二季度GDP增速預(yù)期調(diào)低至-0.1%（弱于預(yù)期）；

????? 意大利4月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)值較上月縮減1.9%（弱于預(yù)期）；

????? 荷蘭4月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)值較上月縮減2.7%（弱于預(yù)期）；

????? 希臘一季度GDP同比萎縮6.5%，弱于5月15日預(yù)測(cè)的下降6.2%。

????最令人震驚的數(shù)據(jù)可能是最后一個(gè)希臘數(shù)據(jù)。不是因?yàn)橄ＥD經(jīng)濟(jì)影響巨大，而是希臘政府看來(lái)仍難掌握真實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)。我個(gè)人已基本接受這樣一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)：大多數(shù)政府都在編造數(shù)據(jù)，因此數(shù)據(jù)修正，無(wú)論是向上還是向下都 不值得大驚小怪。

????談到政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)政府很快將發(fā)布一大批數(shù)據(jù)，包括消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)、工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、零售額和生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)。很多人的計(jì)劃是如果中國(guó)真地進(jìn)入降息周期，就買(mǎi)入大宗商品和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。在下圖中你可以看到為什么這不是一個(gè)好計(jì)劃，至少?gòu)纳洗谓迪⒅芷诳础?/p>

????As we wait for the central planners to stop their planning, the economic data out of Europe continues to deteriorate. The key European economic data from the last 24 hours includes:

????? German exports declining in April by 1.2%, the first decline this year (worse than expected);

????? Bank of France cuts its French GDP forecast in Q2 to -0.1% (worse than expected);

????? Italian industrial output for April comes in weaker at -1.9% month-over-month (worse than expected);

????? Netherlands April industrial production comes in at -2.7% month-over-month (weaker than expected); and

????? Greek GDP contracted by 6.5% in Q1 from a year ago, versus the -6.2% projected decline on May 15th.

????The most startling data point is likely the last one. Not because the Greek economy matters all that much anymore, but rather because the Greek government continues to have a difficult time getting a handle on the actual data. Personally, I've basically accepted that most governments make up the numbers, so revisions, either up or down, are really of no great surprise.

????Speaking of government data, the Chinese government will be releasing a broad swath of data soon, including consumer price index, industrial production, retail sales, and producer price index. For many, the plan is to buy commodities and risk assets if a Chinese rate cutting cycle begins in earnest. In the chart below, you can see why this may not be such a good plan, at least according to the last cycle.

????具體來(lái)說(shuō)，2008年9月16日是中國(guó)上次降息周期的開(kāi)端。可能正如預(yù)料的那樣，涵蓋19種大宗商品的商品研究所指數(shù)（CRB index）六天內(nèi)大漲9.5%。但到2009年3月2日，CRB 指數(shù)累計(jì)下跌46.4%。中國(guó)降息對(duì)有些投資者可能是萬(wàn)靈丹，但不適合做多大宗商品的投資者。（感謝我的同事Darius Dale提供上述分析）

????當(dāng)然，如果中國(guó)開(kāi)始大舉降息，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)這次可能有不同表現(xiàn)。我的觀點(diǎn)是搶跑央行，正如塞思?克拉曼所言是個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的計(jì)劃，如果這還算是一個(gè)真正的投資計(jì)劃的話。

????Specifically, on September 16th, 2008, China cut rates for the first time in the cycle. As might be expected the 19-commodity CRB index ripped +9.5% in six days. By March 2, 2009, the CRB index had fallen 46.4% lower. Chinese rate cutting may have been a panacea for some, though not for those investors levered long of commodities. (Thanks to my colleague Darius Dale for putting this analysis together.)

????Certainly, risky assets may act differently this time around if China starts to cut interest rates aggressively. My point is simply that front running central planners, to Seth Klarman's point above, is a dangerous plan, if it is a true investment plan at all.