????這些美國大銀行的歐洲風(fēng)險有多高？華爾街對此似乎也不明了。歐洲危機看來正在影響到當(dāng)?shù)氐臉I(yè)務(wù)。例如，歐洲并購交易和美國銀行在這些交易上獲得的咨詢費目前都接近歷史低點。相比這些美國銀行在按揭債券或美國房地產(chǎn)上的投資，歐洲敞口看來還比較小。只要它們的對沖交易能起作用，似乎不太可能有哪家美國銀行會因為歐洲敞口而倒閉或瀕臨倒閉。衡量美國銀行體系風(fēng)險高低的堪薩斯城金融壓力指數(shù)（The Kansas City Financial Stress Index）5月份為-11。低于零，就意味著美國大銀行出問題的風(fēng)險低于通常水平。

????不過，這并不意味著所有人都高枕無憂。資深銀行業(yè)分析師湯姆?布朗最近就告訴彭博新聞社（Bloomberg News） 稱，美國一家大銀行的高管稱，他現(xiàn)在“怕得要死”。這位高管最大的擔(dān)心是如果歐洲出現(xiàn)違約，美國銀行進行對沖的對手可能都沒錢付清。

????銀行業(yè)分析師克里斯托弗?惠倫說，現(xiàn)在很多人都在關(guān)注外匯風(fēng)險。高盛的科恩表示，高盛花了很多時間來分析交易對手是否最終會付給它德拉克馬或其他重新推出的貨幣?；輦愓f，談到大銀行，他并不是特別擔(dān)心歐洲，但他也坦陳我們真的不知道?！叭A爾街的新游戲是猜測歐洲風(fēng)險在哪里?！被輦愓f，“我們會看到的?！?/p>

????譯者：早稻米

????How much are the big U.S. banks at risk in Europe? Wall Street seems mixed on this. Europe's troubles seem to be costing them business. European M&A, for example, and the advisory fees that U.S. banks get on those deals, is around an all-time low for number of deals. Compared to say how much the U.S. banks had riding on mortgage bonds or U.S. real estate, the European bets appear to be small. As long as their hedges work, and that is a big if, it looks unlikely that any U.S. bank would fail, or even come close, due to its exposures in Europe. The Kansas City Financial Stress Index, which ranks how much risk there is in the U.S. banking system, had a reading of -11 in May. Anything under zero means that the risk of having trouble at any of the U.S.'s largest banks is lower than usual.

????That doesn't mean everyone thinks there is nothing to worry about. Veteran bank analyst Tom Brown recently told Bloomberg News that a director at one of the nation's largest banks told Brown that he is "scared to death." The director's main fear was that the counterparties that U.S. banks have placed their hedges with might not have the money to pay up if there were a default in Europe.

????Bank analyst Christopher Whalen says there are a lot of people looking into currency risk. Goldman's Cohn said his firm has spent a lot of time looking into whether trading parties could eventually pay the firm in drachma or other currencies should they reemerge. Whalen says he is not particularly worried about Europe when it comes to the big banks, though he says we really don't know. "The new game on Wall Street is guessing where the European risk is," says Whalen. "We'll find out."