????眼下的歐洲一片混亂，很難搞明白應(yīng)該重點關(guān)注哪兒。周日希臘公布的議會選舉初步統(tǒng)計結(jié)果顯示，希臘選民給予支持救助方案的新民主黨（New Democracy）略微多數(shù)支持。上上周，西班牙10年期國債收益率創(chuàng)下了7%的歐元區(qū)紀(jì)錄，這樣岌岌可危的收益率水平曾迫使希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭尋求代價高昂且顏面盡失的主權(quán)救助。但在所有這些亂象中，歐洲最大的問題可能是意大利。這個國家實在是大到救不了。

????如果想避免意大利金融和銀行危機的全面爆發(fā)，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最終必須認真對待如何建立一個真正的財政和政治聯(lián)盟。與此同時，意大利人也必須拿出態(tài)度，認真對待疲弱的國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟和分裂的政治體系。如果雙方不迅速作出回應(yīng)，債券民團將就此施壓，可能令歐元陷入混亂，并將歐洲推入更深的經(jīng)濟衰退。

????上上周末，在馬德里宣布的1,000億歐元西班牙銀行救助方案本應(yīng)安撫市場，降低整個歐洲的利率。但這個糟糕的計劃并沒有糊弄過市場——西班牙和其他歐元區(qū)國家的借貸利率并沒有出現(xiàn)下跌，而是繼續(xù)走高。

????如今人們越來越擔(dān)心，由馬里奧?蒙蒂領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的、未經(jīng)選舉產(chǎn)生的技術(shù)官僚政府可能不會以足夠快的速度來實施經(jīng)濟改革，幫助支離破碎的經(jīng)濟回復(fù)正軌。還有人擔(dān)心，一旦蒙蒂將政府控制權(quán)交回意大利腐敗的政治黨派，蒙蒂推行的積極改革可能會被逆轉(zhuǎn)，這一幕最早會在明年春季出現(xiàn)。

????這些天，意大利人的日子顯然不好過。首先，令人失望的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年一季度意大利經(jīng)濟萎縮0.8%，連續(xù)第三個季度負增長。上周晚些時候，意大利財政部（Italian Treasury）不得不為1年期主權(quán)債券支付高達4%的收益率來吸引投資者，大大高于上個月的2.3%。與此同時，公開市場上的意大利10年期國債收益率漲至6.2%，遠高于3月份的僅4.8%。日前，直言快語的奧地利財政部長瑪麗亞?費科特的一句話震驚了市場，她說意大利可能需要救助。這造成意大利國債收益率再次飆升，投資者要求獲得5.3%的收益率來購買意大利3年期國債，大大高于上個月3.9%的收益率。

????意大利國債收益率的躍升，部分與西班牙危機相關(guān)，但主要還是因為擔(dān)心意大利自己的問題。意大利的債務(wù)/GDP比率已達到 123%（而且還在攀升），債務(wù)總額正在快速逼近2萬億歐元，意大利確實有些麻煩了。

????投資者正在要求更高的收益率，因為如果意大利出現(xiàn)問題，歐洲救助基金根本沒辦法相助。歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（EFSF）和歐洲穩(wěn)定機制（ESM）手頭所有的資金加起來僅及意大利債務(wù)總額的一半，而且這還沒有考慮兩項救助基金已經(jīng)對愛爾蘭、希臘、葡萄牙以及將來可能將拯救的西班牙做出的承諾。

????There is so much turmoil in Europe right now, it's hard to know where to focus. It looks like Greek voters have given the pro-bailout New Democracy party a slim lead according to early returns on Sunday, while Spanish 10-year bond yields hit a euro record high of 7% last week, an ominous level that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek costly and humiliating sovereign bailouts. But amid all of this, Europe's biggest problem may actually be Italy. The country is simply too big to bail.

????European Union leaders must finally get serious about creating a true fiscal and political union if they want to head off an all-out Italian financial and banking crisis. At the same time, the Italians need to do their part by showing the market that they are serious about growing and modernizing the country's anemic economy and fractured political system. Without a quicker response from both sides, the bond vigilantes will end up forcing the issue, which could bring a chaotic end to the euro and plunge the continent into an even deeper recession.

????The 100 billion euro Spanish banking bailout announced in Madrid last weekend was supposed to bring calm to the markets and help lower borrowing rates across the continent. But the poorly constructed plan did not fool the markets – borrowing rates in Spain and in other eurozone countries went up instead of down.

????Now there is growing concern that the unelected technocrat government in Italy led by Mario Monti isn't moving fast enough to implement economic reforms that would help put that cracked economy back together again. There is also concern that any positive reforms Monti ends up making will simply be reversed once he returns control of the government back to Italy's notoriously corrupt political parties, which could occur as early as the spring of next year.

????It has certainly been a tough week for Italy. First there was the gloomy economic data release showing that Italy's economy shrank 0.8% in the first quarter of the year, marking the third consecutive quarter of negative growth for Italy. Later in the week, the Italian Treasury watched in horror as it had to pay a whopping 4% yield on its one-year sovereign bonds to attract investors, up from 2.3% last month. At the same time, Italian 10-year bond rates rose to 6.2% on the open market, up from just 4.8% in March. Then yesterday, Maria Fekter, the outspoken Austrian finance minister, shocked the markets when she said that Italy may be in need of a bailout. This caused Italian yields to shoot up again with investors demanding a high 5.3% yield to buy Italian 3-year bonds, up sharply from the 3.9% they garnered just last month.

????The jumps in yields were partially related to the troubles going on in Spain, but the bulk of the concern was centered squarely on Italy's own internal problems. With a debt-to GDP ratio of 123% (and rising) and a total debt load quickly approaching two trillion euros, Italy is in some serious trouble.

????Investors are demanding the extra yield because if Italy experiences problems there is no way the European bailout fund can come to its rescue. Both the EFSF and ESA have a combined firepower that is half that of Italy's total debt load – and that's before counting bailout commitments already made to Ireland, Greece, Portugal and a possible future bailout of Spain.