????如果借貸利率繼續(xù)上漲，意大利將需要歐洲央行（European Central Bank）提供特別幫助，才能避免債券市場的崩潰。歐洲央行自去年推出旨在弱化債券收益率漲勢的債券購買計劃以來，已累計購買意大利債券近2, 690億歐元。它似乎不愿意永遠地這樣大量地買入意大利債券。而意大利有高額的融資需求，今年需要發(fā)行約1,200億歐元的債券來填補預算赤字和支付現(xiàn)有債務利息。

????意大利曾經活躍的龐大債市如今需要讓私人投資者確信，該國正在盡其所能解決債務問題，并保持相對償付能力。意大利需要在其債券收益率達到危急關頭前，迅速獲得投資者的信任。首先，不妨從為意大利債券附加一項政府承諾，政府必須在償付債券投資者后才能用于支付諸如教育或醫(yī)療保健費用等。

????意大利還應當更積極地出售國有資產。這不僅有助于償還日益增長的債務，也能表明意大利政府仍在掌控全局。蒙蒂暗示，意大利政府正在考慮進行這樣的出售，但對于將出售什么資產或何時出售的問題含糊其辭。關鍵是蒙蒂迅速啟動大甩賣，別等到投資者都開始懷疑是否有這回事。這樣做好處巨大，有些人預計約有5,700億歐元的資產可能會被出售。這些錢不僅對意大利償債大有幫助，還將大大推高其信用評級，有可能的話，還會降低借貸利率。

????市場也希望看到意大利開始認真對待經濟增長問題。如果意大利公司的經營和結構方式不作顯著調整，意大利經濟就會繼續(xù)蹣跚前行。放寬雇傭和解雇條例，是蒙蒂推動經濟發(fā)展的第一步，但這應當延伸至所有行業(yè)，特別是政府崗位。還需要更多資金用于研發(fā)計劃，特別是在高科技領域。意大利經濟仍是十分老式的經濟，汽車制造和紡織業(yè)是GDP頂梁柱。如果不采取措施建立適應21世紀的經濟，意大利將繼續(xù)面對黯淡的經濟增長。

????但如果意大利不想最后四處求助，這些還只是所需實施內容的一部分。歐盟領導人必須要動真格的，通過提供真正的解決方案、解決共同貨幣面臨的現(xiàn)實問題（比如，缺乏一個財政聯(lián)盟）。只有組建財政和政治聯(lián)盟，德國才可能同意與歐元區(qū)成員更多地分享其資產負債表和信用。創(chuàng)立歐元債券和將歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有債務融合，將有助于市場重獲平衡，不會出現(xiàn)邊緣經濟體負債累累、核心經濟體欣欣向榮這樣鮮明的反差。

????歐元區(qū)危機已進入倒計時。未來一些天至關重要，希臘大選最終結果將公布，而歐元區(qū)領導人將齊聚布魯塞爾商討構建一個更緊密的財政聯(lián)盟。兩件事任何一件傳出壞消息，都將沖擊意大利債券市場，大幅推高債券收益率至危機關頭。債券投資者將細心留意任何樂觀情緒、迅速重返歐洲市場。希望歐洲人最終能不負眾望。

????譯者：早稻米

????If borrowing rates continue to rise, Italy would need extraordinary help from the European Central Bank to keep its debt market from collapsing. The ECB has already bought up around 269 billion euros worth of Italian debt since launching its bond-buying program last year in an effort to blunt the rise in bond yields. It seems reluctant to just continue buying Italian paper in such large quantities in perpetuity. Italy has major funding needs and will need to issue around 120 billion more euros in debt this year to cover its budget shortfall and make its interest payments on existing debt.

????Italy's large and once active debt market needs private investors who believe that the country is doing all it can to dig itself out of debt while remaining relatively solvent. It needs to quickly regain investor trust before its bond yields hit critical levels. A good start would be to attach a guarantee on Italian debt that forces the government to pay off its bond investors before paying for anything else, like education or health care.

????Italy should also get more aggressive in selling off state-owned assets. This will not only help to pay down its growing debt load but it would also show that the government still runs the show. Monti hinted that the government was considering such a sell-off, but was vague as to what assets might be up for sale or when they would hit the block. It is critical that Monti starts his big garage sale quickly and before investors start to doubt if it will ever happen. The payoff could be huge, with some estimates of around 570 billion euros potentially up for sale. That money will go a long way in helping to pay down Italy's debt load, which will push its credit rating much higher and hopefully lower borrowing rates.

????The market also wants to see Italy getting serious on growth. The Italian economy will continue to putter along unless there are significant changes to the way companies are run and structured. Liberalizing hiring and firing laws was a good first step Monti helped push forward, but it should extend to all industries, especially government positions. There also needs to be a lot more money earmarked for research and development schemes, especially those in the high tech sector. Italy's economy is very old school with car manufacturing and textiles anchoring its GDP. Italy's economy will continue to experience anemic growth if steps aren't taken to build an economy for the 21st century.

????But this is just part of what needs to occur if Italy wants to avoid a trip to the bailout court. EU leaders need to finally get real when talking about solving the eurozone crisis by offering up real solutions that address the tangible problems facing the common currency, like the lack of a fiscal union. Creating a fiscal and political union is the only way Germany will agree to share more of its balance sheet and credit with its eurozone partners. The creation of Eurobonds and the pooling of the eurozone's existing debt will help to rebalance the market so that it isn't so lopsided with the periphery debt-ridden and the core humming along.

????The clock is now ticking on the eurozone crisis. The next few days will prove critical with the final results of the Greek election coming in while eurozone leaders meet in Brussels to discuss forming a closer fiscal union. A negative outcome from either event could spook the Italian debt markets, sending bond yields critically higher. Bond market investors will be looking for a hint of optimism so they can jump back in the European markets. Hopefully the Europeans can finally deliver.