????不久以前，人們還在對(duì)任何與歐洲有丁點(diǎn)關(guān)系的投資避之不及。如今，在希臘投票可能讓歐洲財(cái)政問(wèn)題再陷僵局的前夕，美國(guó)投資者卻已對(duì)歐洲危機(jī)的說(shuō)法不以為然。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)正在從5月份的跌跌不休中反彈。再出一個(gè)雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）？不可能。如今，絕大多人相信希臘退出歐元區(qū)是“可控”的。（注：原文寫(xiě)于希臘投票前）

????幾天前，我與一位過(guò)去交易大盤(pán)金融股的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理聊天，“謹(jǐn)慎”一詞或許還不足以形容他。早在上世紀(jì)90年代中期，他就曾警告我要提防證券化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，正是證券化帶來(lái)了次級(jí)債、債務(wù)擔(dān)保憑證（CDO）和其他很多最終引發(fā)金融危機(jī)的“創(chuàng)新”。不過(guò)，最近當(dāng)另外一位交易員買(mǎi)下大都會(huì)人壽（MetLife）持有的相當(dāng)一部分與希臘、葡萄牙和其他一些歐洲財(cái)政弱國(guó)相關(guān)的債券時(shí)，他說(shuō)，他基本上瞧不上這個(gè)人了。“他們知道這風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已有兩年了。”他說(shuō)，“你是在告訴我，他們還沒(méi)有采取行動(dòng)？”

????看起來(lái)這就是當(dāng)今市場(chǎng)大多數(shù)投資者的假定。既然我們知道希臘和歐債危機(jī)至少已有一年，實(shí)際上可能比這更早，大都會(huì)人壽和其他公司肯定早已采取自我保護(hù)措施？但他們做了嗎？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是投資者對(duì)大都會(huì)人壽和其他公司的自我保護(hù)措施可能估計(jì)過(guò)高。

????比如，美國(guó)大銀行已基本結(jié)清希臘風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口或進(jìn)行了對(duì)沖。但近來(lái)，他們一直在增加對(duì)意大利和法國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。因此，如果希臘違約，他們的問(wèn)題不大。但如果這導(dǎo)致歐洲銀行業(yè)更廣泛的擠兌，美國(guó)大銀行仍將損失巨大。

????去年夏季令人憂心的另一類(lèi)歐洲資產(chǎn)——貨幣市場(chǎng)基金也不像一年前那么讓人操心了。Federated Investors管理的資產(chǎn)約有3/4是貨幣市場(chǎng)基金。盡管如此，該股今年仍大漲43%。

????像其他貨幣基金公司一樣，F(xiàn)ederated也將投資主要貨幣市場(chǎng)基金的敞口從去年的45%降到了今年的21%。盡管如此，F(xiàn)ederated在歐洲的投資仍超過(guò)了任何一個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。跟蹤Federated的10位華爾街分析師無(wú)一推薦該股。不過(guò)，看起來(lái)這些分析師擔(dān)心的主要是懸而未決的貨幣市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管改革，而不是歐洲問(wèn)題。

????“過(guò)去五年我們倍受歐洲問(wèn)題困擾，”給予Federated“弱于大盤(pán)”評(píng)級(jí)的瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）分析師克雷格?西根塔勒說(shuō)，“現(xiàn)在的投資者不太擔(dān)心歐洲商業(yè)票據(jù)敞口?！彼J(rèn)為，F(xiàn)ederated的貨幣市場(chǎng)基金很難會(huì)有重大損失，除非出現(xiàn)像雷曼那樣的事件。這正是問(wèn)題所在。

????譯者：早稻米

????Not too long ago investors were running scared from any investment that seemed remotely tied to Europe. Now, on the eve of a Greek vote that could throw the continent's finances into question again, U.S. investors are blowing off the idea that Europe's a major risk. The S&P 500 is rebounding from its May pummeling. Another Lehman Brothers. No way. The prevailing line these days is that a Greek exit from the Euro would be "manageable."

????Yesterday I was talking to a hedge fund manager who used to trade the shares of large-cap financial stocks. To say he is a cautious guy would be an understatement. Back in the mid-1990s, he warned me about the dangers of securitization, the process that created subprime mortgage bonds and CDOs and many of the other "innovations" that led to the financial crisis. Yet, when another trader recently brought up MetLife's (MET) significant holdings of bonds tied to Greece, Portugal and some of Europe's other weaker financial nations, he said he mostly dismissed the guy. "They've known about the risk for two years," he says. "You're telling me they haven't dealt with it?"

????And that appears to be the presumption running the market right now. Since we have known about Greece and the European debt crisis for at least a year now, and really much longer than that, MetLife and others have surely acted to protect themselves. But have they? The risk is that the market is presuming that MetLife and others have done more than they actually have.

????Large U.S. banks, for instance, have mostly sold off or hedged nearly all of their exposure to Greece. But they have recently been increasing their exposure to Italy and France. So they are protected if Greece defaults. But if that leads to a wider run on European banks, large U.S. banks could still lose billions.

????Money market funds, another source of European worry last summer, are eliciting fewer concerns than they were a year ago. About three-quarters of the assets under management at Federated Investors (FII) are in money market funds. Nonetheless, shares of the company are up 43% this year.

????Federated, like other money market fund managers, has cut the European exposure of its prime money market funds from 45% a year ago. At 21%, though, Federated has more invested in Europe than any of its competitors. None of the 10 Wall Street analysts who follow Federated are currently recommending the stock. Still, it appears most of the analysts' worries are related to pending money market regulatory changes, not fears about Europe.

????"We've been stressed on Europe three times in the past five years," says Credit Suisse analyst Craig Siegenthaler, who gives Federated's shares an "underperform" rating. "Investors are less worried about European commercial paper exposure this time around." Siegenthaler says it would be very hard for Federated's money market funds to have major losses. You would have to have a Lehman-like event, he says. And that's exactly the point.