????消費(fèi)信貸放緩——隨著消費(fèi)信用放緩，零售額依然保持韌性，特別是年初以來(lái)。在這方面，年均以來(lái)意大利的3月均值同比好于歐元區(qū)。我們將此歸因于消費(fèi)信貸的黏性以及儲(chǔ)蓄消耗。

????失業(yè)壓力——另一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的問(wèn)題是意大利年輕人的失業(yè)率高達(dá)39%，雖然仍低于西班牙年輕人50.2%的失業(yè)率，但如果將“迷惘的一代”與意大利人口老齡化（幾乎是歐洲最年長(zhǎng)的）這一人口結(jié)構(gòu)不利因素疊加，未來(lái)一些年社會(huì)服務(wù)以及債務(wù)和赤字的壓力沉重。

????滯漲——我們預(yù)計(jì)2012年下半年通脹將放緩，但美元疲軟環(huán)境下能源價(jià)格高企，導(dǎo)致滯漲揮之不去（以及實(shí)際收益率為負(fù)）已成為全球很多地區(qū)的主題。

????過(guò)去兩年，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在歐元區(qū)邊緣國(guó)家之間忽來(lái)忽往（停留時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的是希臘），并不是什么秘密，這被稱為歐債危機(jī)和銀行業(yè)危機(jī)。不過(guò)，當(dāng)談到“歐豬五國(guó)”中最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體——意大利的救助需求時(shí)，事實(shí)上我們要討論的是對(duì)歐洲大陸經(jīng)濟(jì)體和國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（沖擊），由此不可避免地歸結(jié)到一個(gè)問(wèn)題：意大利大到不能倒？

????過(guò)去幾年，我們看到歐盟官員在三駕馬車的支持下每每為主權(quán)國(guó)家提供了救助：希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙以及如今的西班牙。不幸的是我們認(rèn)為意大利可能大到?jīng)]法救。簡(jiǎn)單說(shuō)，我們相信中期唯一的出路是德國(guó)人反對(duì)的“發(fā)行歐元債券”，但德國(guó)人不愿承擔(dān)意大利的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，確實(shí)也無(wú)可厚非。

????畢竟，為何德國(guó)人要讓意大利用他的信用卡?

????顯然，歐洲已無(wú)路可退，因?yàn)槌蓡T國(guó)不太可能為救助機(jī)制拿出更多的資金（在這里，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織或許需要超越日常權(quán)責(zé)，承擔(dān)起更大的責(zé)任）。但我們擔(dān)心的以及市場(chǎng)可能還沒(méi)有認(rèn)識(shí)到的是世上沒(méi)有什么“火箭炮”或萬(wàn)靈丹可以一勞永逸地消除歐洲的集體主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)和銀行業(yè)危機(jī)。當(dāng)然，意大利的威脅會(huì)給歐洲的未來(lái)增加更多不確定性，所有這些預(yù)示著歐洲資本市場(chǎng)的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)尚未在市場(chǎng)定價(jià)中完全得到反映。

????接下來(lái)的兩年會(huì)像過(guò)去兩年一樣嗎？我們認(rèn)為，答案是有保留的“是”，但做這樣的預(yù)測(cè)可能失之草率，因?yàn)闅W洲的走向幾乎每天都在變。目前，意大利和歐洲其他國(guó)家的命運(yùn)掌握在歐盟官員的手中。攤在桌上的主要議題包括：財(cái)政協(xié)議；泛歐存款保險(xiǎn)；歐元債券；歐洲贖回基金（European Redemption Fund）；ESM（和EFSF）獲得通過(guò)的條款；以及歐洲金融交易稅。要商討的議題一大堆；我們相信歐盟官員還是希望能掌控好歐元區(qū)的秩序的。

????譯者：早稻米

????Consumer Credit Drying Up – As the pace of consumer credit has slowed, retail sales have still remained resilient, especially in the year-to-date period. Here Italy has shown a positive divergence over the Eurozone since the start of the year based on a 3-month average compared to the previous year. We chalk this up the sticky levels of consumer credit, and continued draining on savings.

????Unemployment Hooking - Another grave dynamic is the underemployment across Italian youths at 39%. While short of the 50.2% for Spanish youth, combine "a lost generation" with Italy's demographic headwinds of an aging population (near oldest in Europe) and you have a cocktail that puts great pressure on social services, and the debt and deficit loads in the years ahead.

????Square Stagflation - While we expect inflation to moderate into the back half of 2012, sticky stagflation (and negative real yields) has been a theme across much of the globe as energy prices remain elevated in the weak dollar environment.

????It's no great secret that risk has shifted quite precipitously from peripheral to peripheral over the course of the last two years (with the longest stay in Greece) in what has been called Europe's sovereign debt and banking crisis. However, when we discuss the bailout needs of Italy, the largest economy of the PIIGS, we're talking about risks (disruptions) to continental and global economies that inevitably lead one to the question: Is Italy too big to bail?

????Over the last years we've seen Eurocrats, under the support of Troika, coming to aid the sovereigns at every step: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and now Spain. Unfortunately, we think Italy is far too large to rescue. In short, we believe the only way out over the intermediate term is the issuance of Eurobonds, a position the Germans are against, and rightfully so in our eyes for they do not wish to take on Italy's credit risk.

????After all, why would a German give an Italian use of his credit card carte blanche?

????Clearly, Europe's back is against a wall, as member countries are unlikely to post more capital upfront for bailout facilities (and here the IMF may have to take on a much larger role outside of its mandate). But what we fear, and the market may not understand, is that there is no "bazooka", no panacea, to cure Europe's collective sovereign and banking risks in one shot. Surely, the threat of an Italian default leads us down a road of even higher uncertainty on Europe's future, all of which portends that the downside in European capital markets is not fully priced in.

????Could the next two years look like the last two years? We think the answer could be a qualified yes, however making such calls is reckless given that the direction of Europe changes on a nearly daily basis. For now, the fate of Italy, along with the rest of Europe, will be wrapped in the hands of Eurocrats. The main topics on the table include: a Fiscal Compact; a Pan-European Deposit Insurance; Eurobonds; a European Redemption Fund; the terms of passage of the ESM (and EFSF); and a European Financial Transactions Tax. There's obviously a lot on the table; we do believe that Eurocrats wish to maintain the exiting Eurozone fabric.