????美國企業(yè)利潤在一年的頭三個(gè)月出現(xiàn)下降，為大蕭條以來首次。雖然降幅有限，但下降64億美元（降幅0.3%）仍不容忽視，因?yàn)檫@可能預(yù)示著美國企業(yè)的盈利趨勢正在發(fā)生改變。此前，盡管美國失業(yè)問題依舊，但美國企業(yè)的利潤卻保持了增長。

????不過出人意料的是，利潤下降也有好處：因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)高管們或許會意識到需要增加投資。誠然，利潤下降會讓公司對擴(kuò)張更為謹(jǐn)慎，但鑒于導(dǎo)致利潤減少是海外市場銷售滑坡所致，可能會讓公司有壓力在國內(nèi)尋找新的增長途徑。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們擔(dān)心，糟糕的企業(yè)利潤可能會將經(jīng)濟(jì)推入全面衰退。目前，尚不清楚最近的企業(yè)利潤下降想過去的兩次衰退一樣，是新趨勢的開始，還是1998年景象的重演。當(dāng)時(shí)，即便企業(yè)利潤大幅下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依舊。這次利潤下降來得很不是時(shí)候，因?yàn)楫?dāng)前勞動力成本上升，同時(shí)海外的激烈競爭也導(dǎo)致制造企業(yè)無法上調(diào)產(chǎn)品售價(jià)。

????當(dāng)然，盈利和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系并不總是涇渭分明。利潤下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)并不一定會下滑。2007年的金融危機(jī)中，企業(yè)利潤與就業(yè)同步下降。但在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退結(jié)束后的幾年里，隨著很多公司削減成本，擴(kuò)張進(jìn)入新興市場尋找新的增長點(diǎn)，利潤隨之快速回升。

????盈利糟糕也可能導(dǎo)致股市螺旋向下。當(dāng)人們期待增加派息時(shí)，盈利糟糕對股市而言無疑是個(gè)壞消息。但正如Money Magazine的保羅?林姆最近所指，盈利下降或許不會像有些人擔(dān)心地那樣大幅拉低股價(jià)。

????盈利影響股市表現(xiàn)，但主要是長期影響。從過去來看，林姆稱，盈利增長和股價(jià)波動之間并沒有直接關(guān)聯(lián)。1938年以來，股市最好的16年中有8年趕上了企業(yè)利潤下降。而且，在股市最差的16年中有13年企業(yè)利潤是增長的——這說明利潤并非股價(jià)表現(xiàn)的晴雨表，事實(shí)上可能正好相反。利潤放緩或許有好處。

????過去兩年企業(yè)利潤回升并大幅增長，但企業(yè)依然不愿擴(kuò)大招聘或投資。高管們手握創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金，聲稱經(jīng)濟(jì)看來非常不確定，在美國增加招聘和投資的理由不夠充分。事實(shí)上，很多公司都依賴海外銷售，特別是在中國、巴西和印度等新興市場。但最近的盈利下滑說明這一策略的作用有限。

????For the first time since the Great Recession, corporate profits fell during the first three months of this year. While the dip may be small, the $6.4 billion (or 0.3%) decline is significant as it just might inspire a shift in tone within corporate America, which saw profits soar even as joblessness has persisted.

????Ironically enough, there's an upside to down profits: Executives may realize they need to invest more. Admittedly, weaker profits could make companies even more fearful about expanding, but given that the decline reflects slumping sales from overseas markets, it could also put new pressures on companies to find new ways to grow at home.

????Economists worry that lousy corporate profits could send the economy into a full-fledged recession. It's still unclear if the latest decline in earnings will be the first of many, similar to the past two recessions, or if we will see a repeat of 1998, when the economy continued to grow even as corporate profits fell sharply. The pinch came amid rising labor costs and the inability of manufacturing companies to raise prices on its products in the face of stiff competition from abroad.

????To be sure, the relationship between profits and GDP growth is not always clear cut and just because earnings fall doesn't mean the economy will follow suit. During the 2007 financial crisis, corporate profits fell in tandem with employment. But in the years following the end of the recession, profits quickly rebounded as many companies cut costs and expanded into emerging markets for growth.

????Weak earnings could also send the stock market spiraling downward. This would spell bad news to shareholders in a year when some expect stronger dividend payouts. But as Paul Lim ofMoney Magazine pointed out recently, the fall in earnings might not drive stocks down as much as some think.

????Profits influence the stock market's performance, but primarily in the long-term. Using the past as a guide, Lim argues that there's no direct correlation between earnings growth and stock price movements. Since 1938, eight of the 16 best years for stocks have coincided with declines in corporate earnings. What's more, profits rose in 13 of the 16 worst years for stocks -- further illustrating that earnings aren't a predictor of stock performance and, in fact, it just might be the other way around. There may actually be an upside to slower profits.

????As corporate earnings rebounded, and then soared, over the past two years, companies remained reluctant to hire or invest more. Executives continued building record levels of cash reserves, claiming the economy looked too uncertain to justify the costs of more hiring and investing at home. Instead, many banked on sales overseas, particularly in emerging markets including those in China, Brazil and India. However, the latest earnings decline suggest that this strategy can only take companies so far.