????美國(guó)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)在一年的頭三個(gè)月出現(xiàn)下降，為大蕭條以來(lái)首次。雖然降幅有限，但下降64億美元（降幅0.3%）仍不容忽視，因?yàn)檫@可能預(yù)示著美國(guó)企業(yè)的盈利趨勢(shì)正在發(fā)生改變。此前，盡管美國(guó)失業(yè)問(wèn)題依舊，但美國(guó)企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)卻保持了增長(zhǎng)。

????不過(guò)出人意料的是，利潤(rùn)下降也有好處：因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)高管們或許會(huì)意識(shí)到需要增加投資。誠(chéng)然，利潤(rùn)下降會(huì)讓公司對(duì)擴(kuò)張更為謹(jǐn)慎，但鑒于導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)減少是海外市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售滑坡所致，可能會(huì)讓公司有壓力在國(guó)內(nèi)尋找新的增長(zhǎng)途徑。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們擔(dān)心，糟糕的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)可能會(huì)將經(jīng)濟(jì)推入全面衰退。目前，尚不清楚最近的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)下降想過(guò)去的兩次衰退一樣，是新趨勢(shì)的開(kāi)始，還是1998年景象的重演。當(dāng)時(shí)，即便企業(yè)利潤(rùn)大幅下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)依舊。這次利潤(rùn)下降來(lái)得很不是時(shí)候，因?yàn)楫?dāng)前勞動(dòng)力成本上升，同時(shí)海外的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也導(dǎo)致制造企業(yè)無(wú)法上調(diào)產(chǎn)品售價(jià)。

????當(dāng)然，盈利和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系并不總是涇渭分明。利潤(rùn)下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)并不一定會(huì)下滑。2007年的金融危機(jī)中，企業(yè)利潤(rùn)與就業(yè)同步下降。但在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退結(jié)束后的幾年里，隨著很多公司削減成本，擴(kuò)張進(jìn)入新興市場(chǎng)尋找新的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)，利潤(rùn)隨之快速回升。

????盈利糟糕也可能導(dǎo)致股市螺旋向下。當(dāng)人們期待增加派息時(shí)，盈利糟糕對(duì)股市而言無(wú)疑是個(gè)壞消息。但正如Money Magazine的保羅?林姆最近所指，盈利下降或許不會(huì)像有些人擔(dān)心地那樣大幅拉低股價(jià)。

????盈利影響股市表現(xiàn)，但主要是長(zhǎng)期影響。從過(guò)去來(lái)看，林姆稱(chēng)，盈利增長(zhǎng)和股價(jià)波動(dòng)之間并沒(méi)有直接關(guān)聯(lián)。1938年以來(lái)，股市最好的16年中有8年趕上了企業(yè)利潤(rùn)下降。而且，在股市最差的16年中有13年企業(yè)利潤(rùn)是增長(zhǎng)的——這說(shuō)明利潤(rùn)并非股價(jià)表現(xiàn)的晴雨表，事實(shí)上可能正好相反。利潤(rùn)放緩或許有好處。

????過(guò)去兩年企業(yè)利潤(rùn)回升并大幅增長(zhǎng)，但企業(yè)依然不愿擴(kuò)大招聘或投資。高管們手握創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金，聲稱(chēng)經(jīng)濟(jì)看來(lái)非常不確定，在美國(guó)增加招聘和投資的理由不夠充分。事實(shí)上，很多公司都依賴(lài)海外銷(xiāo)售，特別是在中國(guó)、巴西和印度等新興市場(chǎng)。但最近的盈利下滑說(shuō)明這一策略的作用有限。

????For the first time since the Great Recession, corporate profits fell during the first three months of this year. While the dip may be small, the $6.4 billion (or 0.3%) decline is significant as it just might inspire a shift in tone within corporate America, which saw profits soar even as joblessness has persisted.

????Ironically enough, there's an upside to down profits: Executives may realize they need to invest more. Admittedly, weaker profits could make companies even more fearful about expanding, but given that the decline reflects slumping sales from overseas markets, it could also put new pressures on companies to find new ways to grow at home.

????Economists worry that lousy corporate profits could send the economy into a full-fledged recession. It's still unclear if the latest decline in earnings will be the first of many, similar to the past two recessions, or if we will see a repeat of 1998, when the economy continued to grow even as corporate profits fell sharply. The pinch came amid rising labor costs and the inability of manufacturing companies to raise prices on its products in the face of stiff competition from abroad.

????To be sure, the relationship between profits and GDP growth is not always clear cut and just because earnings fall doesn't mean the economy will follow suit. During the 2007 financial crisis, corporate profits fell in tandem with employment. But in the years following the end of the recession, profits quickly rebounded as many companies cut costs and expanded into emerging markets for growth.

????Weak earnings could also send the stock market spiraling downward. This would spell bad news to shareholders in a year when some expect stronger dividend payouts. But as Paul Lim ofMoney Magazine pointed out recently, the fall in earnings might not drive stocks down as much as some think.

????Profits influence the stock market's performance, but primarily in the long-term. Using the past as a guide, Lim argues that there's no direct correlation between earnings growth and stock price movements. Since 1938, eight of the 16 best years for stocks have coincided with declines in corporate earnings. What's more, profits rose in 13 of the 16 worst years for stocks -- further illustrating that earnings aren't a predictor of stock performance and, in fact, it just might be the other way around. There may actually be an upside to slower profits.

????As corporate earnings rebounded, and then soared, over the past two years, companies remained reluctant to hire or invest more. Executives continued building record levels of cash reserves, claiming the economy looked too uncertain to justify the costs of more hiring and investing at home. Instead, many banked on sales overseas, particularly in emerging markets including those in China, Brazil and India. However, the latest earnings decline suggest that this strategy can only take companies so far.