????法國(guó)政府預(yù)計(jì)新的富人稅將為國(guó)庫增加23億歐元稅收收入。當(dāng)然，前提是“富有的”法國(guó)人和企業(yè)不會(huì)大舉逃離法國(guó)，前往稅收制度更友好的國(guó)家。根據(jù)歐盟（European Union）公民自由遷移法案，人們輕輕松松就可以收拾行囊，前往鄰國(guó)定居，藉此避免本國(guó)的高稅率。目前還不清楚有多少法國(guó)人會(huì)想辦法回避這項(xiàng)新稅收政策，但上個(gè)月英國(guó)首相戴維?卡梅倫聲稱，將“鋪上紅地毯”歡迎那些為逃避加稅而來到英國(guó)的法國(guó)企業(yè)，這番表態(tài)還是令法國(guó)政府暴跳如雷。

????雖然高達(dá)75%的富人稅令輿論嘩然，但其實(shí)它至多也只能填補(bǔ)今年預(yù)算缺口的1/4。因此，法國(guó)政府又瞄上了投資者，主張對(duì)公司派息征收3%的稅，這一項(xiàng)預(yù)計(jì)將帶來3億歐元稅收。另一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃是將金融交易稅稅率從0.1%提高到0.2%，此舉預(yù)計(jì)將產(chǎn)生3.50 億歐元稅收收入。

????這兩項(xiàng)稅將令法國(guó)金融企業(yè)承受壓力，因?yàn)樗鼈儗⒋驂和顿Y、交易、經(jīng)紀(jì)和撮合交易等活動(dòng)的熱情。投資者將想方設(shè)法避免繳稅，很多人可能會(huì)選擇放棄與法國(guó)的注冊(cè)公司進(jìn)行交易。而且，法國(guó)跨國(guó)公司在決定是否將海外利潤(rùn)匯回國(guó)內(nèi)時(shí)也會(huì)更加猶豫，擔(dān)心法國(guó)政府會(huì)拿走其中的大部分。

????提案中缺失的是大舉削減開支的舉措，因?yàn)榇笈e削減開支與社會(huì)黨“促增長(zhǎng)”/“反緊縮”的主題不搭調(diào)。但是如果他們打算填上2013年330億歐元的缺口，最終可能還是得縮減開支。繼續(xù)減稅的空間有限，再減就會(huì)鉗制法國(guó)業(yè)已疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。上上周在布魯塞爾會(huì)議中，法國(guó)敦促歐元區(qū)鄰國(guó)批準(zhǔn)了一項(xiàng)1,200億歐元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激一攬子計(jì)劃，希望藉此提振整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。想法固然不錯(cuò)，但它需要時(shí)間，不會(huì)取得立竿見影的效果。在歐洲，大型項(xiàng)目的順利啟動(dòng)可能需要幾年，甚至幾十年的時(shí)間。而且，1,200億歐元僅及歐元區(qū)GDP總量的1/10，分散到幾年的時(shí)間跨度里，刺激力度也不算大。況且，就算法國(guó)能分到一杯羹，到底能拿到多少也還值得懷疑，因?yàn)檫@些錢是被指定用于歐元區(qū)最孱弱的國(guó)家，而不是像法國(guó)這樣一般被視為“核心”的國(guó)家。

????毫無疑問，法國(guó)明年需要采取一些真正的緊縮措施。但如果要達(dá)到歐元區(qū)預(yù)算赤字上限要求，法國(guó)所需的縮減開支幅度很可能會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)構(gòu)成負(fù)面影響，進(jìn)一步加深法國(guó)的痛苦。很快，法國(guó)就會(huì)看起來更像意大利：債臺(tái)高筑，增長(zhǎng)疲弱。

????此外，法國(guó)可能還需要應(yīng)對(duì)與西班牙一樣的銀行業(yè)危機(jī)，即便它不打算支持跛行的金融業(yè)。法國(guó)社會(huì)黨與法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行（Société Générale）、法國(guó)巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）等銀行巨頭關(guān)系緊張。除了對(duì)銀行加稅達(dá)5億歐元，現(xiàn)在似乎還有分拆銀行的說法。上周二，法國(guó)總理埃羅在法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)（National Assembly）發(fā)表預(yù)算案演講時(shí)稱，他贊成將銀行的貸款業(yè)務(wù)從更具“投機(jī)性”的交易業(yè)務(wù)中分離出來。拆分具體如何進(jìn)行，目前仍未可知。從嚴(yán)，可能會(huì)強(qiáng)制商業(yè)銀行剝離全部投行業(yè)務(wù)——法國(guó)版的《格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案》（Glass-Steagall）。從寬，可能只要求分拆那些過度投機(jī)的業(yè)務(wù)，類似于《沃克爾法則》（Volcker rule）。

????The government projects its new wealth tax will bring in an additional $2.3 billion to the nation's coffers. That is, of course, assuming that many "wealthy" Frenchman and businesses simply won't flee France to a more friendly tax jurisdiction. The European Union's law of free movement of peoples makes it easy to pack up and establish residency in a neighboring country to avoid higher taxation in their own country. It is unclear how many of Frenchmen will make an effort to avoid the new tax, but the French government was livid last month when David Cameron, the United Kingdom's Prime Minister, said he would, "roll out the red carpet," for French businesses seeking to essentially dodge the tax hike.

????But for all the commotion over the 75% tax rate, it will only, at best, close a quarter of the budget gap for this year. So the government is now targeting investors, pushing for a 3% tax on company dividends, which is projected to bring in an estimated 300 million euros. There is also a plan to increase the financial transaction tax from 0.1%. to 0.2%, which will bring in an estimated 350 million euros.

????Both taxes will weigh heavy on French financial companies as it will discourage investment, trading, brokering and deal making activities. Investors will be looking for ways to avoid the tax, so many might choose to do business with a firm that is not domiciled in France. Furthermore, French multinationals will now be more hesitant to repatriate their earning back to France amid fear the government will snatch up most of it.

????Absent from the proposals are any major cuts in spending, as that would not jive with the Socialist Party's "pro-growth" versus "anti-austerity" theme. But they will eventually need to slash spending in a significant way if they are to close the 33 billion euro shortfall projected for 2013. There isn't much taxing left they can do without severely hampering the nation's already anemic economic growth. The French were able to get its eurozone partners to agree to a 120 billion euro economic stimulus package at last week's conference in Brussels to help jumpstart economies across the eurozone. While that is a good idea, its impact won't be felt for a while, as it takes time it takes years, even decades for a big project to get off the ground in Europe. Furthermore, 120 billion euros spread out over several years isn't that much stimulus considering that it is around a tenth of the eurozone's total combined GDP. And it is doubtful France will see much, if any, of that cash as it is earmarked for the weakest eurozone members, not for a supposedly "core" member like France.

????There is no doubt that France will be in need of some serious austerity in the next year. But spending cuts of the size France needs to move into compliance with eurozone debt caps will most likely have a negative impact on its economic growth, further exacerbating the nation's pain. Soon, France will start to look more like Italy with its high debt and weak economic output.

????But France may also have to deal with a Spanish-like banking crisis, as well, if does not support its crippled financial sector. The Socialist Party has a strained relationship with France's Megabanks like Société Générale and BNP Paribas. In addition to slapping the banks with a higher tax bill to the tune of 500 million euros, there now seems to be discussion around splitting the banks up. In his budget speech to the National Assembly Tuesday, Mr. Ayrault said that he was in favor of hiving a bank's lending operations away from their more "speculative" trading operations. How such a split could be done remains up in the air. It could be as harsh as forcing commercial banks to spin-off their entire investment banking unit, a la Glass-Steagall, or somewhat lighter by forcing to spin-off only those units that were deemed to be excessively speculative, similar to the Volcker rule.