????信用評級下調(diào)風暴現(xiàn)在終于刮向了處在金字塔尖的國家。本周早些時候，穆迪（Moody's）將歐元區(qū)的優(yōu)等生德國、荷蘭和盧森堡列入了負面信用觀察，認為這三個國家，特別是德國，很難不受歐洲大陸經(jīng)濟困境的影響。受此消息影響，德國國債收益率在周二交易中小幅上揚，周三繼續(xù)走高，因為德國10年期國債拍賣對投資者的吸引力降到了異乎尋常的低谷。

????德國經(jīng)濟目前雖無大礙，但也談不上健康。近幾個月來把一些歐元區(qū)鄰國拉下馬的經(jīng)濟問題事實上同樣也困擾著德國。但與鄰國不同，德國在此次危機中并未倒下，甚至還實現(xiàn)了略微的經(jīng)濟繁榮，這要感謝德國強勁的出口以及審慎資本管家的聲譽。但隨著出口放緩，名聲受損，德國看起來已經(jīng)沒有那么火熱了。加上它承諾向歐元區(qū)救助計劃提供的所有資金，德國不免看起來有些外強中干。

????德國在國家名聲遭受到永久性傷害前，應當趁自己還有能力的時候，運用各種力量推動建設一個更緊密的歐元區(qū)。希望藉此德國能避免陷入壓垮鄰國的那種經(jīng)濟混亂，確保自己在歐元區(qū)金字塔體系中應有的地位。

????德國一直極大地受益于歐元，如果德國愿意掏錢讓歐元活下去，也不難理解。這一共同貨幣消除了匯率風險，使德國能夠更加容易地向歐元區(qū)伙伴國出口。與此同時，德國能增加向非歐元區(qū)國家的出口。假設其他條件不變，德國保留原有貨幣德國馬克，其匯率肯定會高于當前的歐元匯率。

????整個歐元區(qū)危機期間，德國一直被指責沒有顯示出足夠的領導力，任由這場危機不斷延續(xù)，拿不出一個持續(xù)的解決方案。但一直到最近以前，這場遷延經(jīng)年的危機看來在某種程度上還推動了德國經(jīng)濟增長。比如，由于歐元在市場中遭受的打壓，德國對非歐元區(qū)國家的出口獲得了有益的提振。它幫助德國在2011年創(chuàng)下了強勁的GDP增速（增長3.5%），同期歐元區(qū)兄弟國家大多都在遭受深度的經(jīng)濟衰退。

????但這些好事最終會到頭。今年以來，德國官方的2012 年GDP增速預測已經(jīng)數(shù)次向下修正，最新預計將顯著低于1%。這種情況一部分與德國的出口有關。德國對歐元區(qū)伙伴國的依賴程度超出了最初的想象。今年5月，歐元走軟幫助德國對非歐元區(qū)國家的貿(mào)易同比增長了3.4%，但歐洲持續(xù)經(jīng)濟衰退將德國與其他16個歐元區(qū)成員國的貿(mào)易拉低了2.3%。由于歐元區(qū)貿(mào)易占德國出口的三分之二，德國對非歐元區(qū)的出口增長不足以彌補歐元區(qū)內(nèi)部貿(mào)易的下降。

????與此同時，本周發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)似乎也印證，德國的出口引擎已經(jīng)熄火。7月份，對德國制造的新產(chǎn)品的需求下降到了2009年5月以來的最低點。7月份德國采購經(jīng)理人綜合指數(shù)也因此被推低至47.3，為2009年6月以來最低。采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)低于50，基本上表明經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)處于收縮期，因此，德國很可能也處于經(jīng)濟零增長時期。

????鑒于德國越來越不可靠的財政狀況，這種情形令人擔憂。雖然德國經(jīng)濟規(guī)模龐大，但該國仍沒有創(chuàng)造出足夠的稅收收入來滿足支出需求。歐盟統(tǒng)計局（Eurostat）周一發(fā)布的報告稱，今年第一季度德國的債務/GDP比率為81.6%，較前一季度增加了0.4%。雖然這一數(shù)據(jù)低于肆意揮霍的鄰國（像希臘和法國分別達到了123%和89%），但仍遠遠高于歐元區(qū)成員國本應遵循60%的上限。另外，雖然德國成功地縮減了開支，但該國2011年財政赤字仍然高達258億歐元。隨著經(jīng)濟下滑，預算缺口預計還將進一步擴大。

????德國居高不下的債務/GDP比率或許還只是冰山一角。穆迪在將德國列入負面信用觀察時指出，它關注德國由于此次歐債危機所增加的債務，包括向各種歐洲救助基金提供的數(shù)以十億計的歐元。據(jù)估算，德國提供的與救助相關的現(xiàn)金和擔保達到了約2,110億歐元。如果把這個數(shù)字加在德國當前2萬億歐元的負債之上，德國的債務/GDP比率將躍升至近90%。另外，這些債務數(shù)字還沒有包含德國理應承擔的社會保障、醫(yī)療和養(yǎng)老支付義務面臨的資金缺口。弗萊堡大學（Freiburg University）經(jīng)濟學教授伯德?哈夫拉辛稱，把所有這些加起來，德國國家債務將再增5萬億歐元。這將使德國的債務/GDP比率飆升至令人瞠目的284%。

????The downgrade machine has finally worked its way up to the top. Moody's earlier this week placed the crème-de-la-crème of the troubled eurozone - Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg - on negative credit watch, noting that the three nations, especially Germany, were not immune to the economic troubles on the continent. German bond yields nudged slightly higher in trading on the news Tuesday, and went even higher on Wednesday as a German 10-year bond auction drew uncharacteristically weak demand from investors.

????Germany isn't in grave economic trouble at the moment, but it isn't the picture of economic health, either. It actually suffers from some of the same underlying economic problems that have caused its neighbors to keel over in recent months. Unlike its neighbors, Germany has been able to stay afloat, even somewhat prosper, during the crisis, thanks to its strong export machine and its reputation as a prudent steward of capital. But with its export machine slowing and its reputation now bruised, Germany isn't looking so hot. Add in all the money it has committed to the eurozone bailout and Germany starts to look somewhat weak.

????Before any permanent damage is done to its reputation, Germany should use its clout to push for a much closer eurozone now while it still can. This will shield it from experiencing the kind of economic dislocation that has crushed its neighbors. It will also ensure its rightful place at the top of the eurozone pyramid.

????Germany has benefitted greatly from the euro, so it makes sense that it would spend money to keep it alive. The currency eliminated exchange rate risk, making it much easier for Germany to export to its eurozone partners. At the same time, Germany, in particular, has also been able to increase exports to non-eurozone countries. The exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if Germany had kept its old currency, the Deutsche Mark.

????Germany has been criticized throughout the eurozone crisis for not showing enough leadership, by allowing the crisis to drag on and on without a lasting solution. But up until very recently it appeared that the prolonged crisis has in some ways helped Germany grow its economy. Its exports outside the eurozone for instance have received a healthy boost thanks to the hammering the euro has taken in the markets. This helped Germany record strong GDP growth in 2011 (up 3.5%) while its eurozone brethren were suffering in deep recession.

????But all good things eventually come to an end. Germany's estimated GDP growth rate for 2012 has been revised down several times throughout the year and is now expected to come in well below 1%. Part of that has to do with its export machine. It turns out that Germany needs its eurozone partners more than originally believed. For example, while the cheap euro helped Germany grow its trade with nations outside of the eurozone by 3.4% this past May, on an annual basis, the chronic recession in Europe pushed trade with the other 16-members of the eurozone down 2.3% during the same time period. Since inter-eurozone trade makes up two-thirds of German exports, the incremental benefits of exporting outside the eurozone are no longer covering the loss in trade from Europe.

????Meanwhile, new data out this week seems to confirm that Germany's export engine has stalled. The demand for new German manufactured goods fell in July to the lowest level since May 2009. That pushed the German composite purchasing manager's index down to 47.3 in July, the lowest level since June of 2009. A score below 50 in the PMI largely indicates that an economy is in contraction, so Germany could very well be experiencing no economic growth at all.

????This is concerning, given Germany's increasingly precarious fiscal situation. It turns out that while Germany does have a big economy, it doesn't generate enough tax revenue to cover its bills. Eurostat reported on Monday that Germany had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.6% in the first quarter of the year, which is up 0.4% from the previous quarter. While that is lower than that of its profligate neighbors, like Greece at 123% and France at 89%, it is still far higher than the 60% cap to which eurozone members are supposed to adhere. Furthermore, while Germany has been successfully cutting spending it still ran a budget deficit of 25.8 billion euros in 2011. As the economy contracts, that budget gap is projected to grow.

????But Germany's already high debt-to-GDP ratio may not be telling the whole story. In putting Germany on a negative credit watch, Moody's noted that it was concerned about the liabilities the country has taken on as a result of the crisis. Those liabilities are the billions of euros that have been supplied to the various EU bailout funds. It turns out that Germany is on the hook for an estimated 211 billion euros in cash and guarantees connected with the bailouts. If that number is added to Germany's current debt load of 2 trillion euros, the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio jumps to nearly 90%. In addition, the current debt number doesn't account for unfunded liabilities in social security, healthcare and pensions that the state is responsible in paying out. Adding that all up would tack on an additional 5 trillion euros to Germany's national debt, according to Bernd Raffelhueschen, an economics professor at Freiburg University. That would push Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio to a mind-blowing 284%.