????當(dāng)然，沒人認(rèn)為德國會(huì)很快就會(huì)破產(chǎn)。即便失去AAA信用評(píng)級(jí)，面臨種種經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)的德國仍被視為信譽(yù)卓著的國家。但前提是歐元繼續(xù)存在。根據(jù)瑞銀（UBS）去年的估算，如果歐元區(qū)瓦解，第一年就會(huì)給德國造成約5.14-6.42億歐元的損失，約占其GDP的 20-25%。此后，隨著德國經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮以適應(yīng)其堅(jiān)挺的貨幣，德國每年還將損失約3,000-3,500億歐元。

????穆迪發(fā)出的警告就是這樣。警告會(huì)不會(huì)最終導(dǎo)致信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)，甚至連降多級(jí)，就要看德國人的表現(xiàn)了。維護(hù)歐元區(qū)的完整性是德國的首要任務(wù)，但也需要分散未來救助行動(dòng)的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。團(tuán)結(jié)起來，歐洲就可以著手解決財(cái)政問題，并同其債權(quán)人談判達(dá)成公平的和解。但德國確實(shí)需要向鄰國施壓來達(dá)成一致。如果它能夠利用自己手頭掌握的全部政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)資本做到這一點(diǎn)，穆迪的警告也就達(dá)到目的了。

????譯者：早稻米

????To be sure, no one is saying that Germany is going to go bankrupt anytime soon. Even if it loses its triple-A credit rating, it will still be seen as more than creditworthy, notwithstanding all of the current economic headwinds. That is, of course, if the euro stays together. If it breaks, UBS estimated last year that it would cost Germany around 20% to 25% of its GDP or around 514 billion to 642 billion euros in the first year off the euro. It would then cost the country around 300 to 350 billion euros every per year going forward as its economy shrinks to match its strong currency.

????The warning from Moody's (MCO) is just that – a warning. It is now up to Germany to make sure that this warning doesn't result in a downgrade, or a more dangerous multi-notch downgrade. Keeping the euro together should be Germany's number one priority but it needs to spread out the financial risk of any future bailout. United, Europe can set about to address its fiscal troubles while negotiating fair settlements with debt holders. But Germany needs to really put pressure on its neighbors to fall in line. If it successfully uses all its political and economic capital to get this done, then this warning would have done its job.