????眼下看起來歐元危機(jī)似乎有所緩解，歐洲議員們都去享受夏日假期了。但隨著9月份他們回到辦公室，幾乎肯定會發(fā)現(xiàn)家里的烈火仍在熊熊燃燒。

????下個月將做出的很多政策決定很多可能改變這場危機(jī)的走向：從確立歐洲央行（European Central Bank）作為“首席債券買家”的新職責(zé)，到想辦法如何再次救助希臘。要想讓市場相信歐洲央行已經(jīng)掌控了這一混亂局面，歐洲央行將必須跨越重重阻礙。

????下個月至少有一天，所有的目光都將聚焦柏林：德國憲法法院將對該國參與歐洲新的救助基金一事是否違憲做出判決。如果法院判定違憲，等于是救助行動還未實施，核心部分就已夭折，屆時幾乎肯定會出現(xiàn)恐慌情緒席卷各個市場的情況。

????8月初，歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉吉公開承諾將盡其所能來拯救歐元。此后，德國總理安吉拉?默克爾在柏林做出了類似的響應(yīng)。這些擲地有聲的聲明意在注入信心，但兩人都沒有就如何兌現(xiàn)承諾給出明確說法。盡管如此，交易員和投資經(jīng)理們還是姑且信其有，給了危機(jī)一段“暫?！睍r間。

????隨后，所有各方都收拾行囊，分赴地中海、漢普頓或好望角等度假勝地，盡管歐元區(qū)危機(jī)的烈焰仍在熊熊燃燒。

????現(xiàn)在，是時候來想想歐元的下一步了。9月份，基金經(jīng)理和政府官員們返回工作崗位時面對的將是毫無希望的局面。歐洲央行明里暗里地都在努力想讓華爾街和其他投資者們相信，他們已經(jīng)有了一項計劃，將能讓現(xiàn)金緊缺的歐元區(qū)成員國更容易借到足夠多的資金來滿足還債所需。

????歐洲央行具體將怎么做來平息投資者的擔(dān)憂，將是進(jìn)入9月份后最大的一個問號之一。從德拉吉迄今的講話來看，似乎他想對此次危機(jī)中的兩個壞小子，也就是意大利和西班牙，施以歐元區(qū)十二步計劃。首先是讓這兩個壞小子最終承認(rèn)它們有問題，向歐元區(qū)設(shè)立的兩個救助基金尋求資金幫助——這兩個基金是早已設(shè)立的歐洲金融穩(wěn)定安排（EFSF）和即將設(shè)立的歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制（ESM）。一旦完成這一步，它們就可以向歐洲央行申請救助。

????救助的性質(zhì)、時機(jī)和附加條件是其中最大的秘密。市場中將會流傳各種版本的傳言和猜測，直到9月6日歐洲央行開會討論其策略。最可能的救助方式將是建立某種形式的永久性債券購買機(jī)制，讓歐洲央行成為歐元區(qū)債券（說的更具體點，就是西班牙和意大利債券）的最后買家。

????如果各位還記得，這并不是歐洲央行第一次以這種方式干預(yù)市場。歐洲央行第一次開始購買西班牙和意大利債券是在去年，當(dāng)時這兩個國家的債券收益率都達(dá)到了危急水平。但今年早些時候，歐洲央行停止了購買債券，并稱購買債券計劃的本意是應(yīng)急，而不是解決危機(jī)的長久之計。此后，兩國的債券收益率現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)重新回到了危急水平，投資者要求高溢價來持有這些債券。事實上，西班牙債券收益率自那以來已多次反彈至7%的危急水平附近，迫使該國取消了債券拍賣，同時真正開始著手縮減開支。

????但縮減開支并不能解決兩國賬上已有的債務(wù)問題。過去西班牙的狀況看起來要比大多數(shù)國家都要好，但馬德里中央政府已經(jīng)不得不承擔(dān)起陷入困境的地區(qū)政府和破產(chǎn)銀行的債務(wù)。意大利在總理馬里奧?蒙蒂的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，在改革過時、失靈的稅收及支出政策上有了很大推進(jìn)，但債務(wù)問題幾乎毫無改觀，這個國家依然在2萬億美元債務(wù)中掙扎。兩國都需要一次經(jīng)濟(jì)大繁榮或類似的刺激推動，才能獲得足夠的財政收入來滿足償還債務(wù)所需要的資金。不幸的是，從它們兩位數(shù)的高失業(yè)率來看，兩個國家哪個都不會取得這樣的大繁榮。

????It may seem like the euro crisis is on hold at the moment as European lawmakers take their summer vacations. But upon their return in September, they will almost certainly find that their house is still very much on fire.

????A number of policy decisions will be made in the next month that could alter the direction of the crisis, from establishing the European Central Bank's new role as "bond-buyer-in-chief" to figuring out how to bail out Greece yet again. There are a number of large hurdles the ECB will need to hop over before the markets accept that it is in control of the chaos.

????But all eyes will be on Berlin for at least one day next month as the German constitutional court rules on the constitutionality of the nation's participation in Europe's new bailout fund. If the court rules against German participation, panic will almost surely sweep through the markets as the core of the rescue operation fizzles before it is even able to get off the ground.

????Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, took to the stage at the beginning of August to reassure the markets that he would do everything in his power to save the euro. He was followed by German chancellor Angela Merkel who echoed similar sentiments from her perch in Berlin. The strongly worded statements were supposed to instill confidence, despite the fact that neither gave concrete answers as to how they would go about backing up their statements. Nevertheless, traders and money managers gave them the benefit of the doubt and agreed to what has amounted to a sort of "timeout" in the crisis.

????All parties then packed their bags for the Mediterranean, the Hamptons or the Cape as the eurozone remained alight.

????But it is now time to think about what's next for the euro. Fund managers and government officials will be returning in September to what appears to be a hopeless situation. The ECB has tried to reassure Wall Street and the City publicly and through backchannels that they have a plan in place that will make it easier for cash-strapped eurozone members to borrow enough money to meet their debt obligations.

????What exactly the ECB will do to calm investor fear is one of the biggest question marks going into September. From what Draghi has said so far, it seems he wants to put Italy and Spain, the current bad boys of the crisis, in what amounts to be a eurozone twelve-step program. The first thing would be for both of them to finally admit that they have a problem and to seek financial help from the two bailout funds set up by the eurozone – the already established EFSF and the coming ESM. Once they do that, then they can apply for help from the ECB.

????The nature, the timing and the conditions attached to that help is the main mystery here. Rumors and speculation will hang over the market until September 6th when the ECB gets together to talk about their strategy. The help will most likely come in the form of some sort of permanent bond-buying mechanism by which the ECB would become the buyer of last resort for eurozone debt, but more specifically, Spanish and Italian debt.

????As you may recall, this isn't the first time the ECB will be intervening in the markets in such a fashion. They first started buying up Spanish and Italian debt last year as yields reached critical levels for both countries. But the ECB stopped buying bonds earlier this year, noting that the program was supposed to be an emergency fix, not a permanent solution to the crisis. Since then bond yields in both countries have drifted back up to critical levels as investors demand a high premium to hold on to their debt. Indeed, Spanish debt bounced about the critical 7% level several times since then, forcing it to cancel debt auctions and really tighten its belt.

????But belt tightening won't work with the level of debt both nations have on their books. Spain looked like it was better off than most nations but the central government in Madrid has had to take on the liabilities of Spain's troubled regions and its insolvent banks. Italy has made great strides in reforming its antiquated and dysfunctional tax and spend policy under the leadership of Mario Monti, but it has hardly moved the needle as the nation drowns in $2 trillion in debt. Both nations would need the equivalent of a huge economic boom in order to raise enough revenue to cover their debts. Unfortunately, that isn't going to happen for either country given their double-digit unemployment numbers.