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西班牙有話要說

西班牙有話要說

Cyrus Sanati 2012-09-29
眼下,西班牙向市場(chǎng)傳遞的一個(gè)信息非常有力:歐洲確實(shí)沒有準(zhǔn)備好,也不是非常迫切地想構(gòu)建一個(gè)更強(qiáng)大的財(cái)政聯(lián)盟。鑒于此,歐元可能難逃一劫。隨著西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入停滯,該國已爆發(fā)了民眾騷亂,并扯開了舊的政治裂痕,威脅到國家領(lǐng)土的完整統(tǒng)一。

????隨著歐債危機(jī)不斷加深,從馬德里爆發(fā)游行騷亂到巴塞羅那威脅退出西班牙聯(lián)邦,西班牙已經(jīng)搖搖欲墜,看上去隨時(shí)都可能墜入政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)毀滅的深淵。上個(gè)月歐洲央行(European Central Bank)經(jīng)改進(jìn)的債券購買計(jì)劃使歐元區(qū)暫時(shí)得以保全,但西班牙等成員國的結(jié)構(gòu)性效率低下問題每況愈下,可能從內(nèi)拖垮歐元區(qū)。

????歐洲和西班牙將沿著這一經(jīng)濟(jì)裂口的高速路繼續(xù)飛奔,直到它們都愿意做出艱難的讓步,建立更協(xié)調(diào)一致的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟。

????但西班牙緩慢演化的經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰似乎說明,只有情況變得越來越糟,歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人才會(huì)愿意放下面子來做出改觀。

????歐洲央行的債券計(jì)劃為共同協(xié)作贏得了一些時(shí)間,但這點(diǎn)時(shí)間的流逝速度看來快于人們的預(yù)期。隨著西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入停滯,該國已爆發(fā)了民眾騷亂,并扯開了舊的政治裂痕,威脅到國家領(lǐng)土的完整統(tǒng)一。

????這也扭轉(zhuǎn)了西班牙利率的下行走勢(shì),自歐洲央行上個(gè)月宣布了改進(jìn)后的債券購買計(jì)劃,西班牙利率都是保持下行走勢(shì),直到本周二。周三早間,西班牙10年期國債利率突破了6%大關(guān),躍升0.26%,是自8月份以來西班牙國債收益率的最大漲幅。周二,西班牙財(cái)政部發(fā)行52億美元短期債券時(shí)也不得不向投資者支付更高的收益率。3個(gè)月債券的利率達(dá)到1.2%,顯著高于8月份發(fā)行類似期限債券時(shí)支付0.9%的利率。

????目前歐洲央行的無限量債券購買計(jì)劃尚未啟動(dòng),因?yàn)闅W元區(qū)成員國批準(zhǔn)的多項(xiàng)幾十億歐元的救助計(jì)劃仍陷于無盡的官僚繁縟中(歐洲央行計(jì)劃動(dòng)用部分該救助基金,幫助支付最初的債券購買)。歐洲央行可以現(xiàn)在就出手干預(yù),但這意味著將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大其早已膨脹的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模,歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧?德拉吉不希望在救助基金用盡前就陷入這樣的困境。

????救助基金承諾向西班牙提供約1,000億歐元,幫助其陷入困境的銀行體系。此協(xié)議于今夏早些時(shí)候達(dá)成,最初提供給西班牙時(shí)不附帶任何先決條件或預(yù)算承諾。但周二,這項(xiàng)協(xié)議看來有點(diǎn)懸了,德國、荷蘭和芬蘭的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)們發(fā)表了一份聯(lián)合聲明稱,各國應(yīng)當(dāng)承擔(dān)起本國銀行業(yè)資本重整的成本,然后才能向救助基金求助。

????發(fā)表聲明的時(shí)機(jī)絕非巧合。周四,西班牙政府將發(fā)布2013年預(yù)算。周五,獨(dú)立咨詢公司奧緯咨詢(Oliver Wyman)按計(jì)劃將發(fā)布其對(duì)西班牙銀行進(jìn)行壓力測(cè)試的最終結(jié)果。德國似乎是在傳遞這樣一個(gè)信息:如果西班牙想獲得1,000億歐元,就要大幅削減預(yù)算,雖然最初的協(xié)議是他們可以無條件地獲得這筆錢。

????西班牙已為國內(nèi)17個(gè)省區(qū)政府設(shè)立了總計(jì)180億歐元的救助基金,不到西班牙銀行業(yè)資本重整預(yù)計(jì)所需資金600億歐元的三分之一。如果西班牙必須要先用這筆錢,明年西班牙各省的預(yù)算將出現(xiàn)巨大的缺口。如果西班牙大量發(fā)行新債,債券收益率將升至令人不安的高位。因此,要再拿出420億歐元(或許通過更多的緊縮措施)根本就是不可能,特別是考慮到西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀。

????From riots in Madrid to talk of secession in Barcelona, Spain appears to be teetering on the edge of political and economic ruin as the European debt crisis intensifies. While the European Central Bank's revamped bond buying scheme unveiled last month was successful in keeping the eurozone together temporarily, the structural deficiencies inside member states, like Spain, continue to fester, threatening to rot the eurozone from the inside out.

????Europe and Spain will continue down this autopista of economic tears until they are both willing to make the tough sacrifices that come with establishing a more coherent political and economic union.

????But Spain's slow motion implosion seems to indicate that things will have to get much worse before eurozone leaders are willing to swallow their pride to make things better.

????The ECB's bond scheme bought the continent some time to get its act together, but that time seems to be fading much faster than anyone had predicted. Spain's economic troubles are boiling over as its economy stalls, creating civil unrest and exposing old political cleavages threatening the nation's sovereign integrity.

????This has reversed the downward trend in Spanish interest rates, which until Tuesday had been falling since the ECB announced its revamped bond buying scheme last month. The Spanish 10-year bond jumped 0.26% in early Wednesday morning trading to break 6%, which is the biggest jump in yield for Spanish debt since August. Meanwhile, yesterday, the Spanish treasury was forced to pay investors a higher yield as it issued $5.2 billion in short term debt. The interest rate on three-month bills came in at 1.2%, which was significantly higher than the 0.9% it paid to issue similarly dated debt back in August.

????The ECB's unlimited bond buying plan has yet to take off as the various multi-billion dollar bailout schemes, which have already been approved by eurozone members, continue to linger in bureaucratic limbo (the ECB plans on using part of the bailout fund to help pay for its initial bond purchases). The ECB could intervene now, but that would mean it would be increasing the size of its already bloated balance sheet, something Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, wants to avoid until the bailout fund is drained first.

????The bailout fund has already committed around 100 billion euros to Spain to help its crippled network of banks. The deal, agreed to earlier this summer, was extended to Spain initially without any preconditions or budgetary promises. But yesterday, that deal appeared to be in doubt as the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland issued a joint statement that individual nation states should bear the cost of recapitalizing their banking sector first before coming to the bailout trough.

????The timing of the announcement is no coincidence. On Thursday, the Spanish government will unveil its 2013 budget while on Friday the independent consulting firm of Oliver Wyman is set to release the final results of the stress test it conducted on Spanish banks. Germany seems to be sending a message that Spain's budget needs to incorporate some serious cuts if it plans on getting its 100 billion euros, despite the original agreement that they would get the money with no preconditions.

????Spain has set up a bailout fund for its 17 provincial governments totaling 18 billion euros, which is less than a third of the projected 60 billion euros needed to recapitalize its banks. If it has to use that money first, then Spain's provinces will see massive holes in their budgets next year. If it issues a lot of new debt, yields will rise to uncomfortably high levels. So coming up with the other 42 billion euros, possibly through further austerity measures, is simply impossible, especially given how poorly the Spanish economy is doing at the moment.

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