????雅芳依然在接受《反海外腐敗法》（Foreign Corrupt Practices Act）的調(diào)查。這項調(diào)查不僅讓他們付出了高額的代價，還失去了許多潛在客戶。檢察官們一直在調(diào)查雅芳的高管們是否接受了來自海外市場的賄賂。面對質(zhì)詢和審查，公司已經(jīng)花費(fèi)了幾億美元支付法律費(fèi)用和專家費(fèi)用——這還不包括任何判決結(jié)果將導(dǎo)致的支出。倫敦大西洋證券公司（Atlantic Equities）的分析師維多利亞·科林稱，雅芳的反腐敗調(diào)查“可能會讓它變成燙手的山芋”。

????歷史情況也顯示，雅芳對收購不感興趣。公司董事會拒絕了科蒂按每股23.25美元出價的100億美元收購要約，并很快從強(qiáng)生公司（Johnson & Johnson）挖到經(jīng)驗豐富的麥科伊就任首席執(zhí)行官?！狙欧挤Q會考慮科蒂在伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的支持下提出的更為優(yōu)厚的報價，不過科蒂隨后撤回了收購要約?！?/p>

????短短半年的時間，董事會的觀念可能不至于轉(zhuǎn)變到想要去接受收購——尤其是新一屆首席執(zhí)行官上任不久，還沒來得及徹底實(shí)施重整計劃。沒有董事會的首肯，這類收購也就不會發(fā)生。

????以消費(fèi)者為導(dǎo)向的私人股本公司舊金山股本合伙人（San Francisco Equity Partners）的任事股東斯科特·波特說：“在這樣的情況下，私人股本也不會進(jìn)行惡意收購?！?/p>

????私人股本交易最大的障礙是雅芳的現(xiàn)金流問題和高資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率。

????雅芳的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)資金在第三季度減少了2,700萬美元，降至2.2億美元。盡管首席財務(wù)官金伯利·羅斯說公司將積極減少開支，雅芳依然決心在商業(yè)上再次投資。盡管這些舉措很有必要，但是無法緩解現(xiàn)金流的壓力。

????晨星公司的拉什為了衡量雅芳的杠桿率，查看了雅芳的債務(wù)與稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤之比，這一比率在過去五年的平均值為2.0。晨星預(yù)計在接下來的五年中，這一比率將會升至平均3.2。她指出，該比率已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出其他化妝品公司，例如歐萊雅（L'Oreal）（比率分別為0.8和0.2）和雅詩蘭黛（Estee Lauder）（比率分別為1.1和0.5）。

????拉什在一份電子郵件中寫道：“雅芳債臺高筑。部分原因在于，公司的資本支出和股息支出要高于其產(chǎn)生的營運(yùn)現(xiàn)金流。我們認(rèn)為，雅芳面臨的高負(fù)債率會讓想要收購該公司的私人股本望而卻步?！毕胍黾痈軛U率，私人股本公司將會舉步維艱。

????舊金山股本合伙人的波特說：“我長期關(guān)注各種事物的發(fā)展，借此促進(jìn)增長。一般情況下，債務(wù)是發(fā)展的大敵?！?/p>

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????Avon's costly and ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation could put off any potential buyer. Prosecutors have been investigating whether or not Avon executives accepted bribes in several overseas markets. The company has already spent hundreds of millions on legal and professional fees associated with the inquiry and compliance reviews—and that's even before any settlement costs.?Atlantic Equities analyst Victoria Collin says that Avon's FCPA probe "probably makes it a little bit untouchable."?

????History also suggests that Avon (AVP) isn't interested in putting itself up for sale: The company's board turned down Coty's initial $10 billion bid at $23.25 per share and installed McCoy, a Johnson & Johnson veteran, soon after. (Avon did say it would consider a sweetened offer that included backing from Berkshire Hathaway, but Coty went on to withdraw the proposal.)

????It's unlikely the board's thinking has altered so significantly in half a year that it would jump behind a deal -- especially with a new CEO, who hasn't had the chance to fully implement a turnaround plan. And these kinds of deals don't tend to happen without the consent of the board.

????"You haven't really seen private equity go hostile in these types of situations," says Scott Potter, managing partner of San Francisco Equity Partners, a consumer-focused private equity firm.

????The biggest hurdle for a private equity deal is Avon's cash flow issues and high level of debt.

????Cash from operations fell $27 million to $220 million during the third quarter, and while CFO Kimberly Ross said the company will aggressively cut costs, Avon has also committed to reinvesting in the business. While necessary, these moves won't loosen the pressure on cash flow.

????Morningstar's Lash looks at Avon's debt to EBIDTA ratio as a measure of leverage, which over the last five years averaged 2.0 times. Morningstar forecasts it will increase to 3.2 times on average over the next five years. She noted that Avon's levels greatly exceed beauty companies L'Oreal (0.8 times and 0.2 times, respectively) and Estee Lauder (1.1 times and 0.5 times, respectively).

????"Avon's debt was amassed partly because the firm was expending more on capital expenditures and on dividends than it was generating in operating cash flow," she wrote in an email. "We think the high level of debt that AVP is already operating with would be an impediment to a private equity firm being interested in a deal."

????A private equity firm would have a hard time adding more leverage.

????"I tend to put my growth lens on everything," says Potter of San Francisco Equity Partners, "which is what can I do to get that thing growing again, and typically debt is the enemy of a growth thesis."