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2013投資熱點:華爾街看好中國

2013投資熱點:華爾街看好中國

Geoff Colvin 2012-12-17
如今全球金融市場充滿了種種不確定性,不論是美國,還是中國。但華爾街的理財專家們相信,只要投資有道,2013年仍然有望發(fā)財。其中,在中國市場和中國公司股票身上都可以找到不少投資的良機。

????“對于很多優(yōu)質的歐洲銀行而言,它們唯一的過錯就是總部設在歐洲,可能還持有一些意大利或西班牙的主權債券?!薄笮l(wèi)·赫羅
?

??? 不確定性四處彌漫。投資者在哪里能找到一些安心?

????赫羅:這樣的不確定性事實上對股票投資者是件好事,特別是像我們這樣的價值投資者。我們倒是愿意在低價時買進股票。而且,談到買進質優(yōu)價廉的股票,經(jīng)濟不確定性和宏觀經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定實際上幫了我們大忙。因此,如果你打算中長期投資——我得說,所謂投資就得中長期——現(xiàn)在是非常好的時機。

????萊維倫茨,你對新興市場頗有研究。你認為投資者可以安心投資新興市場嗎?

????萊維倫茨:爭議代表著投資機會,我同意這一點?,F(xiàn)在真正是投資者(而非投機者)入市的時機。我認為,這一點對于新興市場不能一概而論。中國市場可能是爭議較多的一個時長。人們對它的權力交接交接有很多擔憂。人們對于中國經(jīng)濟經(jīng)過十年的兩位數(shù)增長后,長期均衡增長率將何去何從有很多的擔憂,對于中國的會計問題和企業(yè)治理也有很多疑慮。而中國也的確有一些出色的公司。因此,新興市場中我看好中國。

????奧斯,如果普遍來看,你認為投資者可以放心投資的地方在哪里?

????奧斯:目前我沒有看到哪里可以讓人很放心。我們事實上是短線看空——這也是2008年以來我們首次回避投資股市。我們擔心美國經(jīng)濟正在放緩。而與此同時,中國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)放緩,而歐洲經(jīng)濟即將步入衰退。因此,短期內我們告訴投資者要謹慎。但我們依然相信,我們正處于一個長期牛市之中,預計2013年下半年股市表現(xiàn)會相當不錯。假如華盛頓最終就稅收政策和減稅措施達成長期協(xié)議,美國經(jīng)濟中大量被抑制的需求將得到釋放。歐洲可能已經(jīng)進入了復蘇模式。而且,我們已經(jīng)兩年來首次開始買進中國股票。

????蘇博拉瑪尼亞,美國股市是你重點關注的領域。它的情況怎么樣?

????蘇博拉瑪尼亞:在美國,過去一年,幾乎所有有海外業(yè)務(不論比重大?。┑墓善倍荚獾搅讼喈?shù)膾伿?,目前估值極有吸引力。因此,我認為,現(xiàn)在確實是買入一些全球周期性股票的好時機,它們的估值比一、兩年前便宜了很多。

????Uncertainty abounds. Where can an investor turn for a little comfort?

????Herro: This uncertainty is actually good for?an equity investor, especially one who has a value bent, as we do. So we'd rather be buying stocks at low prices. And in order to get quality at low prices, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic instability are actually very good for us. So if you have a medium- or long-term investment horizon -- which, I would argue, is what investing is all about -- this is a very good time.

????Justin, the emerging world is where you spend a lot of time. Do you find comfort for investors there?

????Leverenz: I agree that controversy represents meaningful opportunity. It really is an entry point for investors rather than speculators. I think that that's not broadly true in emerging markets. I think China is perhaps the one really significant area of controversy. There is a lot of concern about political transition. There is enormous concern about where normalized growth will be after a decade of double-digit growth and a lot of concern about accounting difficulties, corporate governance in China. And there are some really wonderful companies. So I like China within the emerging world.

????Steve, you look broadly at everything that's available. Where do you find a little comfort for investors?

????Auth: Well, right now I don't find a lot of comfort. We're actually fairly near-term bears -- the first time we've pulled back on equities since 2008. We are nervous that the U.S. economy is slowing. It's coming at the same time that you've got a slowdown in China and?Europe heading into recession. So near term, we're telling people to be cautious. However, we still think we're in a secular bull market for equities, and we think the second half of 2013 could be pretty good. We're going to have a lot of pent-up demand released on the economy, presuming Washington finally comes to a long-term agreement on?tax policy and entitlements. Europe probably enters a recovery mode. And we've started to buy China for the first time in two years now.

????Savita, U.S. equities are your focus. How do things look to you?

????Subramanian: In the U.S., equities with any width of foreign exposure have sold off significantly over the year and are now trading at a pretty attractive valuation. So I think this is actually a good entry point for buying some of the global cyclicals that could be a lot cheaper than they were a year or two ago.

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