????由于投資者對(duì)法國(guó)的主權(quán)債務(wù)抱有信心，法國(guó)素來又是德國(guó)在歐元區(qū)“北部堅(jiān)定的同盟軍，你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為法國(guó)將一直作為歐元的共同守護(hù)人。確實(shí)，目前10年期法國(guó)國(guó)債的利率僅為2%，只比德國(guó)國(guó)債高一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。瀏覽一下收支數(shù)據(jù)，法國(guó)沒有像葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、意大利、希臘和西班牙那樣被戲稱為”歐豬五國(guó)“（PIIGS），法國(guó)沒有承受很多壓力。迄今為止，法國(guó)的債務(wù)和預(yù)算赤字趨勢(shì)沒有像歐豬五國(guó)那么嚴(yán)重，甚至還趕不上英國(guó)和美國(guó)。

????法國(guó)對(duì)于創(chuàng)立歐元、以及推動(dòng)歐元初期的成功功不可沒，這也強(qiáng)化了法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的光環(huán)。1989年，時(shí)任法國(guó)總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯·密特朗說服德國(guó)總理赫爾穆特·科爾支持這一貨幣聯(lián)盟以換取法國(guó)對(duì)德國(guó)統(tǒng)一的支持。實(shí)際上，法國(guó)、德國(guó)還有荷蘭的做法是將法國(guó)法郎和德國(guó)馬克納入一個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟，將貨幣間匯率保持在一個(gè)狹窄區(qū)間內(nèi)，成為1999年歐元誕生的前奏。在21世紀(jì)第一個(gè)十年中期經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮增長(zhǎng)之時(shí)，法國(guó)基本上與德國(guó)并駕齊驅(qū)，成為歐元區(qū)（由17個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)欣欣向榮的成員國(guó)組成）兩大增長(zhǎng)引擎。

????細(xì)細(xì)看來，法國(guó)正在陷入不亞于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的困境之中。這個(gè)歐元區(qū)第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體（2012年GDP為2萬億歐元）面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降問題，比歐元區(qū)其他任何成員國(guó)都要嚴(yán)峻。 簡(jiǎn)言之，法國(guó)產(chǎn)品（汽車、鋼鐵、服裝和電子產(chǎn)品）的成本遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于亞洲和歐洲鄰國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性產(chǎn)品；這些鄰國(guó)不僅包括德國(guó)，甚至還包括西班牙和意大利。因此，法國(guó)出口呈現(xiàn)急劇加速下降，制造業(yè)及配套服務(wù)業(yè)也顯著下滑。

????法國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)事實(shí)上已經(jīng)瀕臨崩潰，但分析師和專家們卻視而不見。他們認(rèn)為，歐元區(qū)已經(jīng)躲過一劫，進(jìn)入了一個(gè)更加穩(wěn)定持續(xù)的全新經(jīng)濟(jì)階段。事實(shí)上，如今對(duì)歐元存亡構(gòu)成最大威脅的不是希臘和西班牙，而是法國(guó)。法國(guó)是歐元所面臨問題的縮影：那些生產(chǎn)成本高昂并持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家無法通過調(diào)整本幣匯率來保持產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

????Given investors' confidence in its sovereign debt, and its image as Germany's principal partner in the sturdy, sensible "northern" eurozone, you'd think that France endures as the co-guardian of the endangered single currency. Indeed, the rate on France's ten-year government bonds stands at just 2%, just a few ticks above Germany's. From a quick look at the headline numbers, France doesn't appear nearly as stressed as the derisively titled "PIIGS," Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. So far, the trajectory of its debts and deficits isn't as distressing as the figures for the PIIGs, or even the U.K. and the U.S.

????France's vaunted role in the creation and initial success of the euro enhances its aura of solidity. It was President Francois Mitterrand who in 1989 persuaded Chancellor Helmut Kohl to back monetary union in exchange for France's support for German reunification. In fact, France and Germany, along with the Netherlands, dramatized their commitment by effectively uniting the franc and deutschemark in a currency union that held their exchange rates in a narrow band, and heralded the euro's birth in 1999. In the boom years of the mid-2000s, France virtually matched Germany as the twin growth engine of the thriving, 17-nation eurozone.

????A deeper look shows that France is mired in no less than an economic crisis. The eurozone's second-largest economy (2012 GDP: 2 trillion euros) is suffering more than any other member from a shocking deterioration in competitiveness. Put simply, France's products -- its cars, steel, clothing, electronics -- cost far too much to produce compared with competing goods both from Asia and its European neighbors, including not just Germany but even Spain and Italy. That's causing a sharp and accelerating fall in its exports, and a significant decline in manufacturing and the services that support it.

????The virtual implosion of French industry is overlooked by analysts and pundits who claim that the eurozone had dodged disaster and entered a new, durable period of stability. In fact, it's France -- not Greece or Spain -- that now poses the greatest threat to the euro's survival. France epitomizes the real problem with the single currency: The inability of nations with high and rising production costs to adjust their currencies so that their products remain competitive in world markets.