????2012年，法國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅0.2%；過去3年的平均實(shí)際增長率為1.2%，不到德國2.7%的一半。對于2013年，法國ODDO Securities的分析頗有說服力，它預(yù)計(jì)2013年法國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長。目前，法國失業(yè)率處于14年高點(diǎn)10.9%，顯著高于德國的6.7%，而且還在繼續(xù)上升。債務(wù)/GDP比率正在接近危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域90%，2013年則可能會(huì)達(dá)到97%。

????這倒不是因?yàn)榉▏翢o節(jié)制地提高政府開支。問題是一個(gè)原本支出水平就高、缺乏經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的國家現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒有余地去繼續(xù)增加支出和負(fù)債。另外，不尋常的一點(diǎn)是，從2004年至2012年，法國私營部門經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后基本沒有增長。八年來，法國GDP累計(jì)增長僅7.3%，全部都來自于政府支出。正是私營經(jīng)濟(jì)支撐這些政府支出，私營經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)萎縮，把法國一步步拖入債務(wù)泥潭。

????如今，法國政府支出占GDP比例為57%，比德國高出12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并且還在繼續(xù)增長。可資比較的是，德國的私營部門表現(xiàn)出增長的活力，政府支出在GDP中的占比呈現(xiàn)下降。情況與它的長期伙伴法國截然相反。

????將法國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長低迷歸咎于“緊縮”根本說不通。緊縮的通常定義是大幅削減預(yù)算赤字，主要通過降低政府支出形式。但剔除通脹因素后，法國的實(shí)際支出呈現(xiàn)增長趨勢。2011年和2012年，法國預(yù)算赤字一直保持在較高的5%左右，今年也可能維持同樣的數(shù)字。

????不知道這場投資者和奧朗德政府基本上還沒有意識到的危機(jī)何時(shí)會(huì)激發(fā)恐慌。法國將勞動(dòng)力成本降低20%-30%以恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的概率基本上是零。改革時(shí)機(jī)只能出現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張、民眾對未來有良好預(yù)期之時(shí)，而不是像法國現(xiàn)在這樣被蕭條所籠罩的時(shí)候。

????法國正向經(jīng)濟(jì)巴士底獄進(jìn)發(fā)。它在這條路上走得越久，它百般努力打造的歐元區(qū)走向瓦解的可能性就越大。

????譯者：早稻米

????In 2012, the French economy expanded at just 0.2%, and its real growth rate for the past three years averaged 1.2%, less than half Germany's 2.7% performance. For 2013, France's ODDO Securities makes a persuasive case that the economy will actually shrink. The unemployment rate stands at a 14-year high of 10.9% and rising, compared 6.7% for Germany. Debt to GDP is nearing the danger zone of 90%, and could hit 97% in 2013.

????It's not that France has been raising government spending at an outrageous rate. The issue is that a nation with already high spending levels and no growth has run out of room to keep lifting spending, and debt, at all. It's extraordinary that from 2004 to 2012, the private sector in France showed no growth whatsoever, adjusted for inflation. The entire rise in GDP, a mere 7.3% over eight years, came from government spending. It's the private economy that supports that spending, and it will keep dwindling, driving France further and further into debt.

????Government spending now accounts for 57% of GDP and increasing, 12 points higher than Germany. By the way, Germany's private sector is growing briskly as public expenditures drop as a share of national income. The opposite dynamic is plaguing its long-time partner.

????It's totally implausible to blame "austerity" for France's poor growth. Austerity is generally defined as large reductions in budget deficits, mainly driven by falling government spending. But France's spending has increased in real terms, and its deficits have been remained at a substantial 5% or so of GDP in 2011 and 2012, with the same figure likely for this year.

????It's unclear when the crisis that's going mostly unacknowledged by investors and the Hollande government will erupt into a panic. The chance that France will lower labor costs by the 20% to 30% needed to restore growth is practically zero. Reforms can only happen when the economy is expanding and citizens feel good about the future, the antithesis of the gloom now enveloping France.

????France is heading towards an economic Bastille. The longer it stays on that path, the more possible that the eurozone regime it labored so hard to create will crumble.