????私募股權(quán)投資公司銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）在以250多億美元的價(jià)格對戴爾公司（Dell Inc.）實(shí)施私有化收購之后，未來會如何出售戴爾公司呢？

????是的，這個(gè)想法可能有點(diǎn)超前。因?yàn)槟壳般y湖還沒有提出正式收購要約，更不用說戴爾公司或其股東是否會接受其收購要約。而我對此仍持懷疑態(tài)度。但是，在還沒有設(shè)計(jì)出一個(gè)可行的退出計(jì)劃之前，私募股權(quán)投資公司不會進(jìn)入到交易談判進(jìn)程中如此深度的階段，即便其交易細(xì)節(jié)通常會隨著時(shí)間的推移而有所改變。

????通常情況下，私募股權(quán)投資公司會通過未來出售所收購的公司或者讓該公司上市來收回他們的投資。然而，戴爾公司未來很難以溢價(jià)出售（當(dāng)然，如果戴爾公司倒閉的話，那么這種估算總體上也就無關(guān)緊要了）。不僅是由于此項(xiàng)收購交易的規(guī)模，而且也是因?yàn)榭赡艹霈F(xiàn)的戰(zhàn)略收購者為數(shù)很少。它或許是聯(lián)想（Lenovo）?；蛟S是甲骨文（Oracle）。也或許是思科（Cisco）。又或者，或許IBM現(xiàn)在后悔當(dāng)初賣出旗下個(gè)人電腦業(yè)務(wù)。值得一提的是，據(jù)傳言，上述公司沒有一家準(zhǔn)備提出與銀湖相競爭的收購要約。

????銀湖對戴爾公司實(shí)施私有化收購之后，未來也可能會把自己持有的戴爾股票出售給另一家私募股權(quán)投資公司，從而讓戴爾公司保持獨(dú)立及非上市狀態(tài)——雖然這種控股變更通常會引發(fā)債務(wù)重組（值得一提的是，對于戴爾公司現(xiàn)有的大部分債務(wù)而言，這樣的觸發(fā)因素似乎并不存在）。

????未來更有可能發(fā)生的情況是，銀湖對戴爾公司進(jìn)行首次公開募股（IPO）上市，因?yàn)樗侥脊蓹?quán)投資公司在進(jìn)行150億美元以上規(guī)模的私有化收購交易之后，幾乎都會采取這種退出方式【值得注意的一個(gè)例外是移動運(yùn)營公司Alltel，該公司最后出售給了威瑞森通信公司（Verizon）】。但是，問題是，這整個(gè)私有化收購交易背后的驅(qū)動因素是邁克爾?戴爾對運(yùn)營一家上市公司的厭惡情緒。

????請記住，是戴爾主動聯(lián)系私募股權(quán)投資公司，而不是私募股權(quán)投資公司主動聯(lián)系戴爾。邁克爾?戴爾不僅會繼續(xù)持有其現(xiàn)有的16％股份，而且很可能還會從其個(gè)人財(cái)富中拿出大量資金來增持股份。換句話說，此項(xiàng)收購交易不會是為了讓公司創(chuàng)始人拋股套現(xiàn)。相反，這位創(chuàng)始人將加倍增持股份，并且希望保住自己對公司的控制權(quán)。銀湖究竟會如何說服他在2017年或2018年重新啟動IPO路演呢？難道銀湖真的指望戴爾在遠(yuǎn)離銀行分析師之后（也就是私有化之后）就會增強(qiáng)上市的信心嗎？

????那么，如果在私有化之后戴爾和公司在未來既不出售也不上市的話，還有哪些退出方式呢？對此，一位匿名者通過電子郵件提出了下面這個(gè)建議：

????“實(shí)施私有化的5至7年之后，等到戴爾公司償付了因私有化收購而背負(fù)的大部分債務(wù)之后，邁克爾?戴爾可以從參與私營化收購的私募股權(quán)投資公司那里買回公司股份。屆時(shí)，邁克爾?戴爾可以對公司進(jìn)行資本重組，并且利用所得資金來償還銀湖的投資——讓銀湖獲得超過一倍的投資收益。”

????這個(gè)推測很有吸引力，因?yàn)楦鞣蕉寄軌虻玫礁髯运胍臇|西。銀湖得到了一個(gè)有盈利的退出途徑，貸款人得到了貸款償付，而邁克爾?戴爾則可以繼續(xù)運(yùn)營戴爾公司，只是屆時(shí)戴爾公司已成為一家獨(dú)立的非上市實(shí)體。

????顯然，這種假設(shè)情形取決于戴爾公司是否能夠成功地把其核心焦點(diǎn)從硬件業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)，以及各種其他商業(yè)因素。此外，戴爾公司不能通過大規(guī)模收購來達(dá)到上述目標(biāo)—— 因?yàn)樽罱扇〉氖召彶呗哉谴鳡柟敬罅拷?jīng)營現(xiàn)金流持續(xù)遭到吞噬的原因（從而限制了該公司償還債務(wù)的能力）。

????但是，銀湖顯然有興趣押注于這個(gè)有利的前景（即戴爾公司能夠成功地把核心業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到服務(wù)領(lǐng)域），這意味著銀湖可能會使邁克爾?戴爾能夠重新獲得最初在25年前將戴爾公司推上市之后失去的自主權(quán)。難怪他一直如此渴望找到一家私募股權(quán)投資公司作為自己此項(xiàng)“宏偉計(jì)劃”的合作伙伴。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者: iDo98

????How would Silver Lake Partners sell Dell Inc. after taking it private for upwards of $25 billion?

????Yes, this is getting ahead of ourselves a bit. Silver Lake hasn't even made a formal offer yet, let alone one that Dell (DELL) or its shareholders have accepted. And I remain skeptical. But private equity firms don't get this far into deal talks without having mapped out a viable exit plan, even if the specifics usually change over time.

????Typically, private equity firms exit their investments either by selling the company or taking it public. Dell, however, would be a very difficult company to sell at a premium (if it were to collapse, of course, then this exercise is largely irrelevant). Not only because of its size, but also because the universe of possible strategic acquirers could probably fit on a chip. Maybe Lenovo (LNVGY). Maybe Oracle (ORCL). Maybe Cisco (CSCO). Or maybe IBM (IBM) is having PC seller's remorse. Worth noting that none of these companies are rumored to be prepping a rival bid to Silver Lake.

????It's also possible that Silver Lake could simply sell its equity position to another private equity firm-- thus keeping Dell private and independent -- although such changes in control typically trigger debt restructuring (worth noting that such triggers don't seem to exist on most of Dell's existing debt).

????A more likely scenario would an IPO, since that is what ultimately happens to almost all $15 billion+ companies that get acquired by private equity (a notable exception being Alltel, which was sold to Verizon). The problem here, however, is that this entire deal is being driven by Michael Dell's abhorrence of running a publicly-traded company.

????Remember, it was Dell that reached out to private equity firms -- not the other way around. And Michael Dell not only would be expected to roll over his existing 16% stake, but chances are he'd also invest significantly more capital from his personal fortune. In other words, this buyout wouldn't be about founder liquidity. Instead, the founder would be doubling down and expecting to retain control. How exactly would Silver Lake convince him to go back out on an IPO road show in 2017 or 2018? Is it really betting that time away from bank analysts makes the heart grow fonder?

????So if not a sale and not an IPO, what's left? Well, an anonymous emailer suggests the following:

????"Michael Dell could take out the PE sponsor in 5-7 years, once the company has paid down a good portion of the acquisition debt. At that point, Michael Dell would recap the company and use the proceeds to repay Silver Lake at more than two times its original investment."

????This is an appealing theory, because everyone gets what they want. Silver Lake has a profitable exit path, lenders get paid and Michael Dell gets to keep running his company as a private, independent entity.

????Obviously such a scenario is dependent on Dell successfully transitioning its core focus from hardware to services, and a variety of other business factors. Moreover, it must do so without relying on large acquisitions -- since that recent strategy is the reason Dell's massive operating cash flows keep getting gobbled up (thus hampering its ability to service and repay debt).

????But Silver Lake is clearly has interest in betting on that upside, which means it might enable Michael Dell to regain the autonomy he first lost upon taking his company public 25 years ago. No wonder he's been so eager to find a private equity partner.