全球最大對(duì)沖基金2012失手之謎
????如果債市下跌,達(dá)里奧投資的股票理論上應(yīng)該能平衡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。真正的問(wèn)題在于,債券投資的安全性已經(jīng)今非昔比。貝萊德(Blackrock)基礎(chǔ)債券投資組合的首席投資官瑞克?萊德稱,去年30年期債券的波動(dòng)率事實(shí)上比股票還要高。 ????因此,2012年達(dá)里奧真正的押注(即債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低于股票)完全押錯(cuò)了寶,而且看上去,當(dāng)前處于歷史低點(diǎn)的利率可能還會(huì)再延續(xù)一段時(shí)間。 ????這個(gè)分析很簡(jiǎn)單化。事實(shí)上,達(dá)里奧只是用了不到一半的管理資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平價(jià)配置。2012年橋水有一只基金的表現(xiàn)就優(yōu)于Pure Alpha,那就是All Weather基金。而且,ZeroHedge提供的數(shù)字顯示,Pure Alpha也進(jìn)行了其他幾十種押注,涉及各類投資。從中各位也可以看到這種變遷。近來(lái)其投資組合中變動(dòng)最大的頭寸是歐美債券。股票投資波動(dòng)相對(duì)較小。 ????大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為,達(dá)里奧的成功過(guò)去是建立在他對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)精準(zhǔn)判斷的基礎(chǔ)上,總能比全球經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)先一步。雖然Pure Alpha不像All Weather那樣高度多元化,但其它出色的回報(bào)率也是得益于達(dá)里奧同樣的投資理論:傳統(tǒng)上投資者承擔(dān)了過(guò)多的股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要分散投資。 ????這一直是達(dá)里奧成功的真正關(guān)鍵。在利率下降時(shí)代,這套理論非常管用。而且,可能繼續(xù)如此。但在泡沫行將破裂之際,可能突然大熱、被奉為福音的也正是這類說(shuō)法,比如提高投資組合的杠桿比率購(gòu)買債券是安全的選擇。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:早稻米 |
????If bonds do drop, Dalio's bets on stocks in theory should balance that out. The real problem is bonds are no longer the safe bet they once were. Rick Rieder, who is chief investment office of fundamental fixed income portfolios at Blackrock (BLK), says 30-year bonds were actually more volatile than stocks last year. ????So Dalio's real bet -- that bonds are less risky than stocks -- is what was really off in 2012, and with interest rates at all-time lows that looks likely to continue for some time. ????This is a simplistic analysis. Dalio only really practices risk parity with a little less than half of the money he manages. It's called the All Weather fund, which actually did better than Pure Alpha in 2012. Pure Alpha, on the other hand, as you can see from the numbers from ZeroHedge makes dozens of bets on all types of investments. But here too you can see the shift. Among the biggest movers in its portfolio recently are investments in US and European bonds. Its stock market investments, by comparison, have been less volatile. ????Most people believe Dalio's success was built on his great macro calls, a swashbuckler able to stay one step ahead of the global economy. But while Pure Alpha is not the fully diversified All Weather, its outsized returns have been driven by the same general Dalio investment thesis: That investors have traditionally taken on too much stock market risk, and need to spread their bets. ????That's been the true key to Dalio's success. And during a time of falling interest rates, it has worked great. And it may continue to. But it's also just the type of talk - that something like levering up your portfolio is safe as long as you use that leverage to buy bonds - that always pops up, and gets taken as gospel, just as bubbles are about to burst. |