????一場(chǎng)十年股市賭局如今已經(jīng)時(shí)間過(guò)半。在這場(chǎng)“百萬(wàn)美元賭局”中，沃倫?巴菲特看好標(biāo)普指數(shù)基金的表現(xiàn)，而一家紐約投資管理公司Protégé Partners則看好5只對(duì)沖基金母基金。現(xiàn)在，有兩個(gè)消息。

????消息一：自從5年前約下這場(chǎng)十年之賭，巴菲特終于取得領(lǐng)先地位，而且領(lǐng)先幅度尚可。消息二：這也是五年來(lái)雙方首次扭虧為盈(母基金勉強(qiáng)持平)。

????談到幾年來(lái)糟糕的表現(xiàn)，不得不提的是，這場(chǎng)賭局始于慘淡的2008年，讓雙方都虧了很多錢。但巴菲特?zé)o疑虧得更多：巴菲特支持的標(biāo)普指數(shù)基金、先鋒集團(tuán)（Vanguard）的Admiral基金 2008年跌幅37%，大于Protégé 公司5只母基金24%的平均跌幅。

????《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）對(duì)這場(chǎng)賭局第一年形勢(shì)的報(bào)道曾援引過(guò)巴菲特的話，他希望自己能像龜兔賽跑故事里的那只烏龜，最終能超過(guò)兔子。

????如今，這只烏龜經(jīng)過(guò)四年的緩慢爬行，終于取得了領(lǐng)先地位。進(jìn)入賭局的第五年，巴菲特支持的先鋒指數(shù)基金累計(jì)上漲8.69%。Protégé為這場(chǎng)賭局選擇的五只母基金也轉(zhuǎn)跌為升，平均漲幅0.13%，用Protégé合伙人泰德?塞德斯的話說(shuō)，終于“長(zhǎng)喘了口氣”。

????按賭局約定，這五只基金的名稱從未透露。但外界一直認(rèn)為，其中有一只基金是Protégé自己管理的一只母基金。

????2012年股市表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，對(duì)于雙方扭虧為盈自然功不可沒(méi)。指數(shù)基金的表現(xiàn)便極好地體現(xiàn)了股市的強(qiáng)勁，去年指數(shù)基金上漲15.96%。相比之下，五只母基金2012年平均僅實(shí)現(xiàn)漲幅6.46%。

????從Protégé當(dāng)前暫時(shí)落后的表現(xiàn)，或許已聽(tīng)到過(guò)太多烏龜說(shuō)法的塞德斯對(duì)于這場(chǎng)賭局設(shè)想的是另一種結(jié)果，就像電影《城市鄉(xiāng)巴佬》（City Slickers）里一樣。塞德斯稱，這部電影里“比利?克里斯托飾演的角色問(wèn)杰克?帕倫斯飾演的角色，今天他有沒(méi)有殺人？后者的回答是，‘今天還沒(méi)到頭呢’?！?/p>

????我們會(huì)保留這個(gè)懸念，繼續(xù)跟進(jìn)報(bào)道這場(chǎng)十年賭局。此處要談的是雙方從賭局之初就購(gòu)入和提交的抵押品10年期零息美國(guó)國(guó)債。當(dāng)時(shí)雙方各自拿出了約32萬(wàn)美元，因此債券總金額約為64萬(wàn)美元。原本的設(shè)計(jì)是，到2017年12月31日賭局終結(jié)時(shí)，抵押品總價(jià)值將逐步增至100萬(wàn)美元——“百萬(wàn)賭局”的說(shuō)法即由此而來(lái)。

????It's halfway time in the 10-year stock market wager sometimes called The Million-Dollar Bet—that's Warren Buffett backing the performance of an S&P index fund vs. a New York money manager backing five funds of hedge funds—and there's double-barreled news.

????Item One: For the first time since the bet started five years ago, Buffett has moved ahead—by an okay margin to boot. Item Two: For the first time ever as well, both sides have crawled out of the ditch (though the funds of funds barely made it) and are showing positive results.

????About that history of bad results, of course, you need to keep in mind that this bet started in the gut-wrenching year of 2008, which left both contenders deep in the red. Buffett, though, was definitely a deeper shade of red: Vanguard's Admiral shares—the S&P index fund he'd backed—lost 37% in 2008 vs. a 24% drop, on the average, for Protégé's five funds of funds.

????Reporting on that first year of the bet, Fortune quoted Buffett as just hoping he could be like the fabled tortoise that ultimately passes the hare.

????So now the tortoise, after crawling four more years, indeed leads. At the five-year mark, the Vanguard index fund backed by Buffett is up by 8.69%. The five funds of funds picked by Protégé Partners to carry its flag in the race are up, on the average, only—"gulp," says Protégé partner Ted Seides—0.13%.

????By the terms of the bet, the identity of those five funds has never been made public. It has always been assumed, however, that one of them is a fund of funds run by Protégé itself.

????The strength of 2012's stock market is naturally what carried the contestants into the black. The market's vigor is displayed in the performance of the index fund, which rose by 15.96% last year. In contrast, the five funds of funds managed a 2012 gain, on the average, of only 6.46%.

????From his trailing position, and probably having heard enough about the tortoise, Protégé's Seides imagines an alternative future for the bet by recalling the movie, City Slickers. In it, says Seides, "Billy Crystal's character asks Jack Palance's character, Curly, if he has killed anyone today—and Curly answers, 'Day ain't over yet.'"

????We'll let that suspense hang and report still one more piece of news about this bet. This bulletin concerns the 10-year zero-coupon bond that the two bettors, Buffett and Protégé, bought with the collateral they put up as the bet began. Each contributed about $320,000, so a total of roughly $640,000 went into the bond. Its value was set to rise gradually to $1 million—thus the nickname for the bet—by its conclusion on December 31, 2017.