????黃金本輪牛市恐怕馬上要到頭了。

????直到去年，黃金價(jià)格已連續(xù)11年走高。投資者購(gòu)買黃金通常有兩個(gè)原因：要么是為了防范不確定的經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期，要么是為了抵御通脹。金融危機(jī)過(guò)后，黃金價(jià)格連著幾年飆升，而且隨著歐洲處理債務(wù)問(wèn)題持續(xù)上漲。金價(jià)在2011年9月登頂，交易價(jià)格超過(guò)每盎司1,900美元。

????隨著上面提到的這些憂懼大大減弱，黃金價(jià)格現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始穩(wěn)步下降。本周二上午，黃金在紐約的交易價(jià)格為每盎司1,592.85美元，降幅差點(diǎn)就達(dá)到20％，而降幅20％一般被視為熊市的標(biāo)志。

????本輪金價(jià)下調(diào)正值全球經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖初現(xiàn)端倪之際。尤其需要注意的是美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)隨著房市復(fù)蘇的穩(wěn)步上升。盡管批評(píng)人士擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)買入數(shù)千億美元的承諾可能導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快攀升，但通脹其實(shí)一直都在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的控制之下。

????這些因素導(dǎo)致投資者將資金抽離黃金等避險(xiǎn)投資，轉(zhuǎn)而買入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的資產(chǎn)——股票。自今年年初以來(lái)，美股價(jià)格飆升，創(chuàng)下新高。上周，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（Dow Jones Industrial Average）創(chuàng)下了自2007年以來(lái)的最高記錄。

????正如英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》（Financial Times）指出，投資者正以前所未有的速度拋售黃金交易所交易基金。約有106噸黃金在2月被拋出——是記錄在案的最高單月拋售額。繼億萬(wàn)富翁喬治?索羅斯等大投資者在去年底拋售持有的黃金交易所交易基金之后，黃金交易所交易基金的持有量1月份以來(lái)已經(jīng)下降了140噸。

????分析師預(yù)測(cè)，這可能標(biāo)志著黃金本輪牛市已經(jīng)進(jìn)入尾聲。

????高盛（Goldman Sachs）上月發(fā)布了一份名為《黃金周期可能拐點(diǎn)將至》的報(bào)告。報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)黃金價(jià)格將一路下跌至2014年。分析師將3個(gè)月、半年以及1年的（目標(biāo)）金價(jià)從1,825美元、1,805美元以及1,800美元分別下調(diào)至1615美元、1,600美元以及1,550美元。此外，他們將2013年與2014年的預(yù)期金價(jià)從每盎司1,810美元和每盎司1,750美元分別下調(diào)至每盎司1,600美元以及每盎司1,450美元。

????達(dá)米安?庫(kù)爾瓦林以及杰弗里?柯里撰寫的這份報(bào)告稱：“事實(shí)上，我們懷疑我們對(duì)金價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌的預(yù)測(cè)是否正確，黃金價(jià)格的下跌可能比我們預(yù)期的要更快、更狠?！?/p>

????It may not be much longer before the yellow metal says bye-bye to its bull run.

????Up until last year, gold prices traded higher for 11 consecutive years. Investors typically buy it for two reasons: Either to guard against uncertain economic times or to hedge against inflation. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with debt problems. Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 a troy ounce.

????As much of these fears have subsided, prices have steadily fallen. On Tuesday morning in New York, gold traded at $1,592.85 an ounce, only a few percentage points away from a 20% decline, a benchmark that's generally defined as a bear market.

????This decline comes amid signs of a global recovery. In particular, U.S. home prices have steadily risen as the housing market heals. And although critics worry that the Federal Reserve's promise to buy up hundreds of billions of dollars would cause prices to rise too fast, the central bank has kept inflation under control.

????These factors have led investors to take their money out of gold and other safe-haven investments and park them in riskier assets -- namely, stocks, which have soared to new records since the start of the year. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) pierced through levels last seen in 2007.

????As the Financial Times noted, investors have sold gold exchange-traded funds at a record pace. About 106 tonnes of bullion was dumped in February -- the biggest monthly sell-off on record. Since January, gold ETF holdings have declined 140 tonnes, after big investors such as billionaire George Soros sold off their gold ETF holdings at the end of last year.

????From analysts' forecasts, this could mark the beginning of the end of gold's bull run.

????"The turn in the gold cycle is likely already underway," read the title of a Goldman Sachs report released last month. The report predicted prices for the precious metal would decline well into 2014. Analysts lowered their 3-, 6- and 12- month gold price to a respective $1,615, $1,600 and $1,550 an ounce from $1,825, $1,805 and $1,800. For 2013 and 2014, they lowered expectations respectively to $1,600 an ounce and $1,450 from $1,810 an ounce and $1,750.

????"In fact, we suspect that if indeed our forecast for further declines in gold prices proves correct, the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than we expect," notes Goldman's report by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie.