????在金價(jià)跌至兩年新低之際，一個(gè)悖論也隨之出現(xiàn)：金價(jià)下跌反映出美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的好消息，但它也意味著來(lái)自世界其他地區(qū)的壞消息，而黃金作為避險(xiǎn)投資品種正失去往日的光彩。

????經(jīng)過(guò)連續(xù)11年的上漲后，黃金價(jià)格于去年10月份開(kāi)始穩(wěn)步下降。近來(lái)金價(jià)跌勢(shì)加劇，上周五跌幅達(dá)到5%，正式陷入熊市。周一投資者繼續(xù)拋售黃金頭寸，金價(jià)一度跌至每盎司1361.70美元，跌幅超過(guò)9%。

????歷史上，許多投資者在經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻時(shí)期偏愛(ài)投資黃金。在全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的幾年里，金價(jià)持續(xù)飆升，之后歐洲出現(xiàn)債務(wù)危機(jī)，金價(jià)繼續(xù)攀升。

????金價(jià)在2011年9月觸及峰值，報(bào)每盎司逾1900美元，但之后已經(jīng)累計(jì)下跌了24%，受美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇跡象影響。與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)住房?jī)r(jià)格穩(wěn)步攀升。自今年年初以來(lái)，美國(guó)股市屢創(chuàng)新高，因投資者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好升溫。不過(guò)，盡管美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)似乎較好，但是中國(guó)和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的一些跡象令人不安，以至于投資者不那么相信投資黃金可以讓他們免受損失。

????上周金價(jià)大跌，因市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心身陷債務(wù)危機(jī)的塞浦路斯將會(huì)大舉出售其黃金儲(chǔ)備。根據(jù)歐盟的救助計(jì)劃要求，塞浦路斯需要自行籌集一部分資金。這促使投資者擔(dān)心其他債臺(tái)高筑的歐元區(qū)國(guó)家可能也會(huì)拋售部分黃金儲(chǔ)備，尤其是意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙。

????在周一中國(guó)公布弱于預(yù)期的第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速后，黃金拋盤(pán)繼續(xù)。中國(guó)和印度都是世界上首屈一指的黃金消費(fèi)國(guó)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年第一季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)7.7%，低于政府8%的增速目標(biāo)，與曾經(jīng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)三十年的兩位數(shù)增速相差甚遠(yuǎn)。投資者擔(dān)心手頭現(xiàn)金縮水的中國(guó)消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)減少黃金消費(fèi)。更重要的是，如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速繼續(xù)顯著放緩，那將影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)并打擊原材料出口國(guó)。過(guò)去十年里，由于中國(guó)需求激增，原材料出口國(guó)受益匪淺。

????在上周的一份報(bào)告中，高盛（Goldman Sachs）將其對(duì)黃金的三個(gè)月目標(biāo)價(jià)由1615美元每盎司下調(diào)至1530美元每盎司，并將12個(gè)月目標(biāo)價(jià)由1550美元每盎司下調(diào)至1390美元每盎司。此前，法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行（Societe Generale）在4月2日發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告中稱(chēng)金價(jià)存在“泡沫”。法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行以及巴克萊銀行（Barclays）和瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）等機(jī)構(gòu)均預(yù)測(cè)2014年黃金均價(jià)將低于今年。

????可以肯定的是，看跌前景也有可能被夸大了。雖然德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）上周將其2013年目標(biāo)金價(jià)下調(diào)至1637美元每盎司，該行仍然預(yù)計(jì)明年黃金均價(jià)能達(dá)到1810美元每盎司。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)差的時(shí)候，金價(jià)往往會(huì)走高。但考慮到中國(guó)和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，目前情況并非如此。金價(jià)未來(lái)的走勢(shì)可能會(huì)更復(fù)雜。皮特森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）資深研究員雅各布?芬克?柯克加德說(shuō)，投資者也許因?yàn)槿致匪箳伿埸S金儲(chǔ)備的計(jì)劃而擔(dān)心其他歐洲國(guó)家也會(huì)效仿，但是這不太可能發(fā)生。

????柯克加德說(shuō)：“它們目前都不存在像塞浦路斯那樣的嚴(yán)重財(cái)政壓力。”他還說(shuō)，不可否認(rèn)的是，某個(gè)國(guó)家可能會(huì)決定宣布一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的、預(yù)先安排好的黃金出售計(jì)劃，時(shí)間跨越5到10年，和幾個(gè)歐盟（European Union）國(guó)家在幾年前的做法相似，但即使那樣似乎也不太可能。若要籌集迫切需要的現(xiàn)金，大多數(shù)歐洲國(guó)家有其他資產(chǎn)可以出售或私有化。

????最終，金價(jià)是否會(huì)繼續(xù)下滑很可能取決于中國(guó)以及部分歐洲國(guó)家是否能夠很好地應(yīng)付任何新的重大問(wèn)題。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????As gold plunges to new two-year lows, a paradox has emerged: The decline reflects better news in the U.S. economy, but it also suggests bad news in other parts of the world as bullion loses its luster as a safe-haven investment.

????After rising for 11 consecutive years, the price of gold started falling steadily in October. Its downward spiral has intensified, with prices falling by 5% on Friday, officially entering bear market territory. The sell-off continued Monday, as prices dropped by more than 9% to $1,361.70 an ounce.

????Historically, many investors think of gold as an alternative investment when economic times get tough. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with its monstrous debt problems.

????Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 an ounce, but prices have since fallen 24% on signs that the U.S. economy is recovering. Home prices have steadily risen. And since the start of the year, the U.S. stock market has soared to record highs as investors turned to riskier investments. But while the U.S. appears to be doing better, signs in China and Europe look so troubling that investors don't seem very convinced gold will guard them from losses.

????Last week, gold plunged on worries that debt-troubled Cyprus would sell a big chunk of its gold reserves to foot the bill for portions of a bailout. This has spurred fears that other European countries struggling with high debts, particularly Italy, Spain, and Portugal, might also sell some gold reserves.

????And on Monday, the sell-off continued after China -- the world's biggest buyer of gold besides India -- reported slower-than-expected growth. During the start of the year, the Chinese economy grew 7.7%, lower than the government's targeted 8% growth rate and by far a big drop from the double-digit annual growth it had seen over three decades. Investors worried that Chinese consumers, faced with less cash, may buy less gold. What's more, if China's economy continues to significantly slow, it will affect economies across the world and hurt exporters of raw materials that have come to demand on surging Chinese demand over the past decade.

????In a report last week, Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its three-month price target for an ounce of gold to $1,530 from $1,615 and lowered its 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550. This followed Societe Generale's April 2 note calling gold a "bubble." The bank, along with Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), are among those forecasting lower average prices in 2014 than this year.

????To be sure, the bearish outlook could be overblown. While Deutsche Bank (DB) last week lowered its 2013 gold forecast to $1,637, it still expects prices to average $1,810 next year.

????Gold usually rises when economies aren't doing so well, but it's clear that hasn't been the case when factoring in China and Europe. And the direction of prices could get more complicated.Cyprus's plans to sell off gold reserves might have spawned investor worries that other European nations might follow, but that's unlikely to happen, says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

????"None of them are in the acute fiscal stress that Cyprus is at the moment, and it would send a signal of desperation to go out and suddenly sell gold," Kirkegaard says. Admittedly, he adds, a country might decide to announce a long-term program spanning five to 10 years of prefixed gold sales, similar to what several European Union countries did years ago, but even that seems unlikely. Most European countries will have other things they can sell or privatize to come up with desperately needed cash.

????In the end, whether gold will continue its downward slide could very well hinge on how well China and parts of Europe might withstand any more major problems.