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巴菲特不擔(dān)心新一輪金融危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

巴菲特不擔(dān)心新一輪金融危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Stephen Gandel 2013-05-07
前兩天,巴菲特在伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司的年度股東大會(huì)上說(shuō),他并不擔(dān)心會(huì)出現(xiàn)新一輪的金融危機(jī),而且他依然看好美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????上周六,沃倫?巴菲特在伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的年度股東大會(huì)上現(xiàn)場(chǎng)回答了投資者、記者和分析師的提問(wèn),還第一次邀請(qǐng)了一位做空伯克希爾-哈撒韋股票的投資者道格?卡斯上臺(tái)。(“你還沒(méi)說(shuō)服我們賣出股票,請(qǐng)繼續(xù)努力,”巴菲特對(duì)其中一個(gè)問(wèn)題給出了這樣的回答。)提問(wèn)涉及的范圍很廣泛,從當(dāng)前美國(guó)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的刺激性措施,甚至包括內(nèi)衣(伯克希爾擁有Fruit of the Loom內(nèi)衣品牌),無(wú)所不及。下面是我們收獲的六點(diǎn)啟示:

????1) 巴菲特認(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大威脅是不斷增長(zhǎng)的醫(yī)療成本。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中每1美元就有17.5美分用于醫(yī)療,大大高于其他國(guó)家的8美分。巴菲特稱,這是一大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)劣勢(shì)。

????2) 企業(yè)利潤(rùn)可能已經(jīng)觸頂,至少?gòu)钠髽I(yè)利潤(rùn)占經(jīng)濟(jì)的百分比來(lái)看是這樣。巴菲特稱,企業(yè)狀況已經(jīng)顯著復(fù)蘇,但失業(yè)率仍處于高位。他認(rèn)為,這種兩極狀態(tài)將繼續(xù)是“公開討論”的熱點(diǎn)。但他認(rèn)為,美國(guó)GDP將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。因此不全是壞消息。

????3) 巴菲特還沒(méi)用過(guò)虛擬貨幣交易系統(tǒng)Mt. Gox。巴菲特稱,他對(duì)最近熱議的虛擬貨幣比特幣(Bitcoin)了解不多。巴菲特的合伙人查理?芒格稱,他不相信比特幣能夠成為切實(shí)可行的貨幣。巴菲特相信,在未來(lái)一些年,美元仍將是默認(rèn)的“世界貨幣”,或許永遠(yuǎn)都會(huì)是。巴菲特說(shuō):“在我們持有的490億美元中,我們還沒(méi)有將任何一部分轉(zhuǎn)為比特幣?!?/p>

????4) 巴菲特并不擔(dān)心可能再次出現(xiàn)金融危機(jī),但芒格可能有這樣的擔(dān)憂。巴菲特稱,他不擔(dān)心銀行會(huì)不會(huì)制造下一輪泡沫或危機(jī)。他沒(méi)有計(jì)劃拋售所持任何一家大銀行的股票,包括富國(guó)銀行(Wells Fargo)、U.S. Bancorp和M&T Bancorp。但巴菲特的確表示,多德-弗蘭克法案(Dodd-Frank)和其他一些新的監(jiān)管措施降低了銀行業(yè)可能產(chǎn)生的回報(bào)。

????不過(guò),芒格認(rèn)為,需要加強(qiáng)對(duì)大銀行的管控。比如,他指出,金融衍生品市場(chǎng)已變得過(guò)于龐大,應(yīng)當(dāng)從傳統(tǒng)銀行業(yè)務(wù)中剝離出來(lái)。芒格說(shuō):“大銀行的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表很難理解。”

????5) 巴菲特仍然需要為它所做的報(bào)紙投資進(jìn)行辯護(hù)。巴菲特首次表示,收購(gòu)小型報(bào)紙讓他獲得了稅收利益。

????6) 巴菲特依然看好美國(guó)。他說(shuō):“我認(rèn)為,今天在美國(guó)出生的小孩將來(lái)的人生機(jī)遇將比過(guò)去任何時(shí)候都要好?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????At Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) annual meeting on Saturday, Warren Buffett fielded questions from investors, journalists, analysts and, for the first time, invited onto the stage one investor, Doug Kass, who is betting against Berkshire's stocks. ("You haven't convinced us yet to sell our stock, but keep working," said Buffett in response to one question.) The questions ranged from those about the challenges facing America, the Fed's stimulus efforts and underwear (Berkshire owns Fruit of the Loom). Here's what we learned:

????1) The biggest threat facing the U.S. economy is rising health care costs, says Buffett. The U.S. economy spends 17.5 cents of every dollar on health care, compared to 8 cents in other countries. Buffett said that's a major competitive disadvantage.

????2) Corporate profits may have peaked, at least as a percentage of the economy. Buffett says corporations have made an amazing recovery, but he notes that the unemployment rate remains high. He said he thought that dichotomy would remain a topic of "public discourse." But he thinks GDP will grow. So not all bad.

????3) Buffett hasn't been to Mt. Gox. He says doesn't know much about Bitcoin, the virtual currency that has been gotten a lot of buzz lately. Buffett's partner Charlie Munger said that he has no confidence that Bitcoin will become a viable meaningful currency. Buffett said he thinks the dollar will remain the world's default currency for years to come, perhaps forever. "Of our $49 billion, we haven't moved any of it into Bitcoins," says Buffett.

????4) Buffett isn't worried about another financial crisis, but Munger may be. Buffett says he doesn't worry about banks creating the next bubble or bust. And he says he has no plans to sell the shares he has in any of the big banks, including Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and M&T Bancorp (MTB). But Buffett does says that Dodd-Frank and other new regulations have lowered the returns banks can generate.

????Munger, though, says he thinks more should be done to reign in the big banks. For one, he thinks the market for financial derivatives has gotten too big and should be separated from traditional banks. "The financial statements of big banks are hard to understand," says Munger.

????5) Buffett still has to defend his investment in newspapers. For the first time, Buffett says he's getting a tax benefit from buying small newspapers.

????6) Buffett is still bullish on America. "I believe a baby born in America today will have better opportunities in life than ever before," says Buffett.

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