????在上周六德國(guó)全國(guó)性報(bào)紙《星期日世界報(bào)》（Welt am Sonntag）刊登的訪談中，高盛（Goldman Sachs）CEO勞埃德?布蘭克梵宣稱歐元區(qū)解體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)在去年消退。布蘭克梵進(jìn)一步說(shuō)道，美國(guó)人一貫地低估了歐洲人想要“建立一個(gè)團(tuán)結(jié)的歐洲”的決心，但“我不會(huì)犯同樣的錯(cuò)誤”。

????布蘭克梵是怎么想的？歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的脆弱健康狀況從去年春季起就已經(jīng)陷入危險(xiǎn)境地。這使歐元這一歐洲通用貨幣面臨前所未有的危險(xiǎn)。歐盟官員和國(guó)家元首們的團(tuán)結(jié)聲明，對(duì)成員國(guó)根本缺陷的拼命縫補(bǔ)遮擋，甚至迷惑了金融界一些最聰明的人士，包括布蘭克梵，他們都確信歐元區(qū)這次能夠幸免。

????幾乎所有的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)都嚴(yán)峻惡化，直指歐元區(qū)的崩潰。據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)測(cè)，歐元區(qū)17國(guó)的失業(yè)率從去年的11.4%驟升至今年的12.3%，創(chuàng)下新高。2013年西班牙和希臘的失業(yè)率均高達(dá)27%，未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)，在歐元區(qū)第二和第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的法國(guó)和意大利，失業(yè)率將達(dá)到約2%。

????以GDP衡量，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在不斷萎縮，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正向蕭條傾斜。歐元區(qū)GDP在2011年僅增長(zhǎng)1.4%，2012年下降0.6%，今年將繼續(xù)萎縮——在這些陷入困境的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，只有愛爾蘭實(shí)現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)。即使法國(guó)這個(gè)捍衛(wèi)歐元的強(qiáng)國(guó)也蒙受了GDP縮水之苦。盡管實(shí)行了飽受詬病的“財(cái)政緊縮”政策，法國(guó)的巨額債務(wù)仍在持續(xù)增加。今年法國(guó)外債占GDP的92%，而2008年只有62%。意大利、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭和希臘的外債占GDP比例則已經(jīng)超過(guò)100%，西班牙正快速接近三位數(shù)。

????有這么多糟糕的數(shù)據(jù)，為什么多頭還愈加相信歐元區(qū)能渡過(guò)難關(guān)？如果歐元區(qū)南部成員國(guó)會(huì)對(duì)他們僵化的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行根本性的結(jié)構(gòu)改革，布蘭克梵的觀點(diǎn)才能說(shuō)得通。但這并不是歐元區(qū)目前的主旋律。“歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力問題遠(yuǎn)比債務(wù)問題嚴(yán)重，可這一點(diǎn)卻被嚴(yán)重忽視，”卡內(nèi)基梅隆大學(xué)（Carnegie Mellon）著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾倫?梅爾策說(shuō)。

????在意大利、西班牙和法國(guó)，制造一輛車或一塊鋼板的“單位勞動(dòng)力成本”遠(yuǎn)高于德國(guó)或荷蘭，這對(duì)它們的出口來(lái)說(shuō)無(wú)疑構(gòu)成了重大打擊。同時(shí)，它們還嚴(yán)重依賴來(lái)自德國(guó)和中國(guó)等低成本國(guó)家的進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品。

????對(duì)此只有兩種解決辦法。經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱的國(guó)家應(yīng)大幅削減工資和退休金開支，針對(duì)限制性的用工規(guī)則進(jìn)行改革，或使貨幣貶值。隨著意大利和法國(guó)放棄養(yǎng)老金制度改革，第一種路徑方面的進(jìn)展極為令人失望。由于失業(yè)率上升，歐洲的單位勞動(dòng)力成本有所下降，但單憑這一點(diǎn)還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足以提升它們的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力或有效減少進(jìn)口。因?yàn)闊o(wú)法再借助本幣貶值這一利器，歐元區(qū)國(guó)家在債務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的泥潭里越陷越深。

????In an interview published last Saturday in the German national newspaper Welt am Sonntag (World on Sunday), Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein declared that the risk of a euro breakup has faded in the past year. Blankfein went on to argue that Americans typically underestimate the will of Europeans to "see through the creation of a united Europe," and that "I'm not going to make the same mistake myself."

????What is Lloyd Blankfein thinking? The health of Europe's fragile economies has taken agefahrhlich, German for perilous, turn since last spring. That puts the common currency in far greater danger than ever. The declarations of solidarity by European Union officials and heads of state, and a desperate patchwork of fixes that that only mask the members' basic weakness, are deluding the best financial minds, including Blankfein, into believing that the euro is virtually certain to survive.

????The shocking deterioration in practically every economic metric points to the opposite conclusion. Unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone will jump from 11.4% in 2012 to a record 12.3% this year, according to the most recent IMF projections. The jobless rate in Spain and Greece will reach 27% in 2013, while around 2% of workers in France and Italy, the zone's second and third-largest economies, will lose their paychecks over the next two years.

????Measured in GDP, the eurozone is now shrinking, and risks careening into a depression. After expanding 1.4% in 2011, the euro area retreated 0.6% in 2012 and will contract again this year, with only one of the troubled economies -- Ireland --showing any growth. Even France, long bulwark of the common currency, suffers dwindling output. Despite the much-vilified shift to "austerity," the mountainous debts continue to rise. This year, France's borrowings will reach 92% of GDP, versus 62% in 2008. For Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece, that figure already exceeds 100%, and Spain is fast approaching triple-digits.

????So given the dreadful numbers, why are the bulls gaining confidence that the euro will pull through? If the southern members were making fundamental, structural reforms to their rigid labor markets, the Blankfein view would make sense. But that's not the main theme in the eurozone. "The nations in the eurozone have a competitiveness problem far more than a debt problem, and it's been greatly underappreciated," notes Allan Meltzer, the renowned economist at Carnegie Mellon.

????In Italy, Spain and France, "unit labor costs," the wages and benefits required to produce a car or sheet of steel, are far higher than in Germany or the Netherlands. That's hammering their exports. At the same time, they're importing heavily from the lower-cost countries, from Germany to China.

????Only two solutions are possible. The weak nations need to radically reduce wages and pension costs, and reform restrictive work rules, or shift to cheaper currencies. Progress on the former has been extremely disappointing, with Italy and France already retreating on pension reform. Unit labor costs have fallen in response to rising joblessness, but not nearly enough to make their exports competitive or garner required reductions in imports. With the traditional safety valve of a falling currency no longer available, these nations are drifting further and further into debt and decline.