????上周初，西班牙一家銀行的股票發(fā)行交易失利，預(yù)示著西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)面臨困境，而且很有可能波及整個歐盟。為了補(bǔ)充已所剩無幾的資本金，已被收歸國有的班基亞銀行（Bankia）發(fā)行了115億新股，結(jié)果該行股價在上周二應(yīng)聲重挫21%。由于機(jī)構(gòu)投資者拋售班基亞股票，它的股價在之前一周已經(jīng)暴跌了50%，加上上周的下挫，無疑是雪上加霜。自2011年組建以來，班基亞銀行股價已經(jīng)累計下跌八成。

????西班牙政府沒料到班基亞的配股交易結(jié)果這么糟糕——事實(shí)上，它下令銀行走這一步是希望這個舉措能使人們對遭受重創(chuàng)的西班牙銀行體系恢復(fù)信心。結(jié)果不僅搞砸了，還促使華爾街質(zhì)疑西班牙銀行系統(tǒng)的真實(shí)狀況和西班牙整體經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。

????市場原本以為西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)正在從大衰退中觸底反彈，由此看來它的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況可能比市場預(yù)期糟糕的多。事實(shí)上，這個判斷導(dǎo)致投資者和分析師們開始公開質(zhì)疑西班牙政府所公布經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的真實(shí)性。一旦銀行或政府被發(fā)現(xiàn)存在任何捏造數(shù)據(jù)的行為，那么，無論之前市場曾對西班牙或是陷入困境的其他歐洲國家的國債抱有多大的信心，它都將因此而蕩然無存，甚至很可能引發(fā)對歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)的新一輪毀壞性攻擊——這一次或許給歐元致命一擊。

????西班牙在動蕩不堪、無休無止的歐債危機(jī)中似乎度過了一段悠閑的假期。今年市場主要的擔(dān)憂集中在塞浦路斯和它垮掉的銀行系統(tǒng)，以及意大利紊亂的政局。那段時間里，西班牙能夠以相對較低的利率發(fā)行大量的長期國債——西班牙10年期國債收益率在5月份降至4%以下，是2010年以來首次來到這個水平。它讓政府能夠繼續(xù)以低利率籌借足夠的現(xiàn)金，支撐堆積如山的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。

????由馬里亞諾?拉霍伊領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的西班牙保守政府試圖通過控制開支以平衡國家預(yù)算。西班牙政府告訴民眾，政府已經(jīng)把預(yù)算赤字減少到了只占GDP的7%的水平，比2009年的11.2%大有下降。此外，政府還裁撤了近40萬個公務(wù)員職位，還把人力成本壓縮到了2005年的水平。西班牙經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本項(xiàng)目15年來第一次實(shí)現(xiàn)了盈余，總體貿(mào)易也在40年內(nèi)首次實(shí)現(xiàn)了順差。雖然政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示去年第四季度的GDP仍在收縮，環(huán)比下跌了0.5%，但市場認(rèn)為情況并不是很糟糕。

????從西班牙政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)傳遞的相對樂觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景來看，會出現(xiàn)班基亞銀行配股交易慘敗這么離譜的局面實(shí)在蹊蹺。也許班基亞銀行是個例外，也就是說，它可能未能很好地反映出西班牙整體經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的狀況。但這家銀行擁有全國10%的存款和10%的抵押貸款，鑒于他的規(guī)模，很難讓人相信這種可能性。

????對于這次股票發(fā)行交易受挫，更可信的解釋是，西班牙的經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有政府所說的那么好。

????為了更取信于投資者，銀行往往會刻意少報壞賬損失，它們在這方面聲名狼藉。例如，2008-2012年期間，盡管全國失業(yè)率從10%上升到了25%，西班牙各銀行公布的貸款平均凈損失率卻只有3%。根據(jù)銀行貸款損失率和失業(yè)率的正相關(guān)性，很容易判斷這個數(shù)據(jù)并不合理。最后，西班牙各大銀行被迫坦白，承認(rèn)它們存在一大批不良資產(chǎn)，最后才獲得了去年的緊急救助。

????A disastrous share offering in Madrid earlier this week portends continued economic trouble for Spain and, quite possibly, for the European Union. Shares of Bankia, the nationalized Spanish lender, fell by as much as 21% Tuesday as the bank issued 11.5 billion new shares in a bid to boost the bank's depleted capital base. The drop added to losses sustained last week when institutional investors sent Bankia's share price down by a whopping 50%. Overall, the bank's shares have lost 80% of their value since it was formed in 2011.

????The Bankia share sale wasn't supposed to go so terribly wrong -- indeed, the government, which ordered the move, thought it would evoke confidence in the badly-damaged Spanish banking system. Instead, the Bankia bungle has raised new questions on Wall Street as to the true state of the Spanish banking system, as well as Spain's overall economic trajectory.

????Thought to be bottoming out from a terrible recession, Spain may actually be in far worse shape than the market believed. So much so, in fact, that investors and analysts have started to openly question the validity of economic data issued by the Spanish government. If it's discovered that the banks or the government have been fudging the numbers in any way, then whatever confidence the market once had in Spanish sovereign debt and that of other troubled European nations would be totally wiped away, potentially setting off another destructive round of attacks against European sovereign debt -- one that might ultimately prove fatal to the euro.

????Spain has enjoyed a bit of a holiday of sorts from the tumultuous and seemingly never-ending European debt crisis. This year the markets have been mostly concerned with Cyprus and its failed banking system and Italy with its dysfunctional political system. During that time Spain was able to issue enough long-term debt at relatively low interest rates, with the Spanish 10-year bond dipping below 4% in May for the first time since 2010, thus allowing the government to continue borrowing sufficient cash at low rates to support its mounting debt load.

????The nation's conservative government, led by Mariano Rajoy, has tried to curb spending in an attempt to balance the nation's budget. The government has told the public that it has been able to cut the nation's budget deficit to just 7% of GDP -- down from 11.2% in 2009. It has eliminated nearly 400,000 government jobs and brought labor costs down to where they were in 2005. Spain also posted a current and capital account surplus for the first time in 15 years and an overall trade surplus for the first time in 40 years. And while the government reported last quarter the nation's GDP was still contracting, falling 0.5% from the prior quarter, it wasn't seen by the markets as being terribly bad.

????Given the relatively positive economic outlook relayed by the Spanish government it is odd that the Bankia share sale would go so horribly wrong. It is possible that Bankia is a unique exception and is therefore not a great reflection of Spain's overall economic recovery. But that's hard to believe given its size, encompassing 10% of the nation's deposits and 10% of its mortgages.

????A more plausible explanation for the busted offering is that Spain's economy isn't performing as well as Spain's government is saying.

????Banks are notorious for underreporting loan losses tied with bad bets in an attempt to look healthier to investors. For example, Spanish banks maintained that their net loan losses averaged just 3% from 2008 to 2012, even as unemployment in the nation during that time rose from 10% to 25%. That simply made no sense given the positive correlation of bank loan losses with unemployment. Eventually, the Spanish banks were forced to come clean and admit they were sitting on a bunch of non-performing assets, leading to last year's bailout.