????西班牙政府是不是從它的銀行那里學(xué)來(lái)了這一招，開始編造數(shù)據(jù)，讓市場(chǎng)以為西班牙正處在復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程中？一些華爾街人士已經(jīng)開始公開質(zhì)疑西班牙政府樂觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的真實(shí)性。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席投資官邁克爾?切巴萊斯特在最近的一份研究報(bào)告中提出，市場(chǎng)不打折扣地接受西班牙GDP數(shù)據(jù)是否明智？他指出了基于西班牙GDP數(shù)據(jù)的一系列不尋常信號(hào)——這些信號(hào)暗示，馬德里的GDP數(shù)據(jù)可能不可靠。當(dāng)年只有極少數(shù)銀行投資官明智地拒絕將客戶資金投入旁氏騙局（Ponzi）主謀伯納德?麥道夫所操作的基金，切巴萊斯特就是其中之一。

????切巴萊斯特不是唯一的一個(gè)持懷疑態(tài)度的華爾街人士。主權(quán)債務(wù)交易員告訴《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune），他們開始將經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）等其他機(jī)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)與西班牙的官方經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)做仔細(xì)的比較分析。OECD在上周三就西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況發(fā)布了一份相當(dāng)悲觀的報(bào)告，預(yù)測(cè)西班牙2013年的失業(yè)率還會(huì)繼續(xù)上升，并在明年達(dá)到28%的峰值，而且西班牙今年的GDP將下降1.7%，降幅是去年的4倍。

????主權(quán)債務(wù)投資者希望政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)是真實(shí)的。與跟投資者?；ㄕ械膰?guó)家相比，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)透明穩(wěn)固的國(guó)家雖然利率低，但能吸引更多的資本。班基亞銀行股票配售交易失利使投資者懷疑西班牙政府是否對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)做了手腳。如果情況屬實(shí)，這對(duì)歐盟以及它想解決主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的愿望來(lái)說可不是個(gè)好兆頭。一旦投資者不再信任歐盟某個(gè)成員國(guó)政府，他們可能會(huì)對(duì)所有歐盟成員國(guó)政府持懷疑態(tài)度。這樣一來(lái)，政府很難從市場(chǎng)借到資金，這對(duì)歐元來(lái)說將是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難。

????西班牙政府有兩個(gè)選擇，它可以站出來(lái)并進(jìn)行艱難的改革，馴服經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退這頭野獸；也可以跟市場(chǎng)?；ㄕ?，得到一些緩沖的時(shí)間。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Has the Spanish government taken a page out of the banks' playbook and started fudging their numbers to try and fool the markets into believing that Spain is on the road to recovery? Some on Wall Street have started to openly question the validity of Madrid's rosy economic indicators. Michael Cembalest, the chief investment officer of J.P. Morgan (JPM), posited in a recent note as to whether or not it was wise for the markets to accept Spanish GDP data at face value. Cembalest, who was one of the only bank investment officers who refused to put his clients' money in funds run by Ponzi master Bernard Madoff, noted a number of strange economic indicators based on Spanish GDP numbers -- indicators that seem to show that the GDP numbers coming out of Madrid aren't to be trusted.

????Cembalest isn't the only one on Wall Street with doubts. Traders who deal in sovereign debt have told Fortune that they are beginning to take a closer look at Spanish economic data from other sources, such as the OECD, which came out with a pretty grim report on the state of the Spanish economy on Wednesday. It projects the unemployment rate in Spain will continue rising in 2013, peaking next year at 28%, and that Spanish GDP will contract 1.7% this year, four times as much as it did last year.

????Sovereign debt investors count on governments to report the truth. Those countries with transparent and solid economic statistics attract more capital and pay lower interest rates than those that play games with investors. Bankia's terrible share sale has investors wondering if the Spanish government is playing fast and loose with their economic data. If true, this doesn't bode well for the EU and its hopes of putting the sovereign debt crisis to bed. If investors no longer trust what one EU government says, they may decide to stop listening to all of them. That could spell disaster for the euro as governments again find it difficult to borrow from the markets.

????The Spanish government can either step up and make the tough changes needed to tame the recessionary beast, or they can play games with the markets and buy some time.