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歐元可能不是拉脫維亞的福星

歐元可能不是拉脫維亞的福星

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-06-08
最近,歐洲央行同意拉脫維亞加入歐盟。這個波羅的海小國有望成為歐盟第18個成員國。經(jīng)過漫長的等待,它的入歐征程終于取得了新的進(jìn)展。不過,成為歐盟成員國對它可能弊大于利。

????即便歐元區(qū)債務(wù)問題繁多,一些國家還是想加入這個集團(tuán)。

????本周,歐洲央行(European Central Bank)同意波羅的海小國拉脫維亞加盟歐元區(qū),成為歐盟第18個成員國。消息一出,拉脫維亞政府上下一片歡騰。事實(shí)上,凡是有意宣布?xì)W元為本國官方貨幣的,無論是哪個國家,或許都能夠說明該國政府已經(jīng)重拾信心,認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)會存續(xù)下去。不過拉脫維亞可能是在自找麻煩,得不償失。

????拉脫維亞走了很長一段路才等到今天。2009年正值全球金融危機(jī)肆虐之際,拉脫維亞國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值大幅萎縮約20%。但由于獲得歐盟(European Union)和國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)提供的101億美元緊急援助,該國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢自此出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。拉脫維亞還大幅削減預(yù)算赤字,削減政府支出,并加大了征稅力度。這些舉措無不利于拉脫維亞滿足《馬斯特里赫特條約》(Maastricht Treaty)所規(guī)定的財政要求,從而獲得資格,最終得以名正言順地加入世界頭號貨幣聯(lián)盟。

????盡管歐元給西班牙和希臘等國帶來了種種棘手問題,加入歐元區(qū)對于拉脫維亞而言似乎是順理成章的下一步。畢竟,也正如拉脫維亞總理瓦爾吉斯?東布羅夫斯基斯所說,該國施行拉特(拉脫維亞法定貨幣——譯注)盯住歐元的匯率制已達(dá)10年之久。而且有多達(dá)90%的拉脫維亞私人債和公司債均以歐元計值。

????拉脫維亞并不是唯一對歐元相關(guān)困境視而不見的國家。2011年,愛沙尼亞宣布加入歐元區(qū)。該國總統(tǒng)托馬斯?亨德里克?伊爾韋斯最近表示,歐元很好,既利于愛沙尼亞經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,又提振了投資者信心。另一個波羅的海國家立陶宛計劃于2015效仿拉脫維亞加盟歐元區(qū)。

????較之歐元區(qū)其他多數(shù)國家,拉脫維亞與愛沙尼亞及立陶宛一樣都屬于較為貧窮的小國。誠然,加入歐元區(qū)會帶來各種經(jīng)濟(jì)便利。除此之外,加入歐元區(qū)對于成員國之間的商品及服務(wù)貿(mào)易而言,不但容易許多,而且成本更低。不過對于拉脫維亞政府來說,啟用歐元作為本幣主要是出于政治考慮,而非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。

????Despite all the eurozone's debt problems, some still want to be a part of it.

????This week, the government of Latvia cheered when the European Central Bank gave the tiny Baltic state a nod to become the 18th member of the eurozone. The fact that any country wants to call the euro its official tender might signal renewed faith that the currency zone will survive, but Latvia may also be in for more trouble than membership is worth.

????Latvia has come a long way, however: In 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the country's GDP shrank sharply by some 20%. It also received a $10.1 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, but Latvia has since turned its economy around. The country has aggressively reduced its budget deficit, cut government spending, and raised taxes. All this helped Latvia fulfill the financial requirements of the Maastricht Treaty, which effectively deems it fit to join the world's biggest currency union.

????The euro seemed like the natural next step, regardless of all the troubles the currency has brought countries like Spain and Greece. After all, as Latvia Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis has said, the lats has been pegged to the euro for 10 years. And as much as 90% of Latvia's private and corporate debt are already in euros.

????Latvia isn't the only country overlooking the euro's troubles. In 2011, Estonia adopted the single currency; its President Toomas Hedrik Ilves recently said the euro is a "great currency" that has benefitted the economy and boosted investors' confidence. Lithuania, the third Baltic state, plans to follow in 2015.

????Like Estonia and Lithuania, Latvia is a relatively small and poor country compared with most of the rest of the currency zone. True, all kinds of economic perks come with joining the euro; among other things, it essentially makes it easier and less costly for a member to trade goods and services with other members. But for Latvia's government, getting to call the euro its home currency has more to do with politics than economics.

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