????

????斯洛文尼亞可能會(huì)成為似乎無(wú)休無(wú)止的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)中即將倒下的下一張多米諾骨牌。由于過去幾年里受到腐敗猖獗、銀行業(yè)危機(jī)及不良財(cái)政政策等三方面的影響，這個(gè)地處阿爾卑斯山的小國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)一片慘淡。雖然主權(quán)債務(wù)違約并未到迫在眉睫的地步，不過可能已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了，屆時(shí)必定會(huì)在其他歐洲國(guó)家的投資者中掀起一股不滿的浪潮。

????對(duì)于歐元區(qū)來說，上周應(yīng)該是令人欣喜的一周。權(quán)威人士幾乎個(gè)個(gè)以為歐元區(qū)到現(xiàn)在會(huì)縮小規(guī)模，但是由十七大成員國(guó)組成的這個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟已經(jīng)接納了拉脫維亞這位新成員國(guó)。在布魯塞爾，歐洲官僚個(gè)個(gè)喜形于色，趁機(jī)對(duì)歐盟的懷疑派發(fā)起反擊?！袄摼S亞渴望使用歐元，表明對(duì)我們通用貨幣滿懷信心，”歐盟貨幣事務(wù)專員奧利?雷恩上周三在布魯塞爾對(duì)記者說?！斑@也進(jìn)一步說明，那些認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)會(huì)瓦解的人，其實(shí)是后知后覺，大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)?！?/p>

????不過，拉脫維亞進(jìn)入歐元區(qū)不應(yīng)該當(dāng)作是對(duì)歐元這株病秧子投上信任的一票。這個(gè)前蘇聯(lián)共和國(guó)總是信誓旦旦的說要加入歐元區(qū)，至今已有多年之久，因?yàn)槔摼S亞政府希望從政治上和經(jīng)濟(jì)上進(jìn)一步疏遠(yuǎn)自己和俄羅斯前巨頭的關(guān)系。事實(shí)上，拉脫維亞別無(wú)他法。根據(jù)2003年加入歐盟時(shí)的約定，拉脫維亞達(dá)的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)達(dá)到一定水平后就必須加入歐元區(qū)。拉脫維亞本幣自2005年以來就與歐元掛鉤，因此無(wú)論從哪一方面來講，拉脫維亞早就成為歐元區(qū)名副其實(shí)的成員國(guó)了。

????歐元區(qū)或許越來越“壯大”，不過還談不上更加“健康”。實(shí)際上，整個(gè)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)問題猶存：西班牙銀行系統(tǒng)搖搖欲墜；意大利新政府時(shí)下正在撤銷財(cái)政緊縮措施；荷蘭政府支出失去控制；而法國(guó)卻仍然患有妄想癥。由于許多歐元區(qū)大國(guó)財(cái)政存在不穩(wěn)定因素，因此人們很容易忽略周邊小國(guó)正在滋生的一些問題。不過從希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙及最近的例子塞浦路斯來看，我們可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，一些小國(guó)家出現(xiàn)的大問題會(huì)很快失控，從而導(dǎo)致整個(gè)歐元區(qū)出現(xiàn)重大金融震蕩。

????斯洛文尼亞就是此時(shí)此刻似乎正深陷重大困境的小國(guó)中的一員。考慮到它是東歐前共產(chǎn)主義國(guó)家中“最西方化”以及經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的一員，人們可能會(huì)感到驚訝，不過斯洛文尼亞的確存在一些重大問題，最終會(huì)迫使它向歐洲央行（European Central Bank）尋求救助。

????乍一看，斯洛文尼亞政府似乎并不存在希臘或意大利那樣的支出問題。斯洛文尼亞的債務(wù)率為53%，遠(yuǎn)低于歐盟約90%的平均水平。不過該國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)眼下正處于自由落體狀態(tài)，沒有任何跡象顯示短時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。2008年以來，斯洛文尼亞的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降了10.6%，按高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）報(bào)告的說法，這可謂“所有歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中下滑最嚴(yán)重的一次”。斯洛文尼亞內(nèi)需下滑更嚴(yán)重，自2007年以來降幅度達(dá)20%。最后，由于許多主要貿(mào)易伙伴均陷入衰退泥潭，斯洛文尼亞的出口在去年出現(xiàn)零增長(zhǎng)。由此一來，面對(duì)稅收下滑局面的斯洛文尼亞政府也因此被迫按5%至8%左右的（較）高利率籌措更多資金來維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。由于國(guó)債日益增加，而國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值卻日益下滑，斯洛文尼亞目前低于均值的負(fù)債比率將會(huì)出現(xiàn)迅速上升的勢(shì)頭。

????Slovenia may be the next domino to fall in the seemingly endless European sovereign debt crisis. The tiny alpine nation's economy has been ripped apart over the last few years thanks to rampant corruption, a banking crisis, and unsound fiscal policies. While a sovereign default isn't exactly imminent, it may be just around the corner, setting off a wave of discontent among investors in other European nations.

????This week was supposed to be a happy one for the euro. Instead of getting smaller, as pretty much every pundit thought would happen by now, the 17-member currency club welcomed in a new member, Latvia. In Brussels, European bureaucrats were all smiles, taking the opportunity to bash eurosceptics. "Latvia's desire to adopt the Euro is a sign of confidence in our common currency," Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for monetary affairs, told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. "It is further evidence that those who predicted a disintegration of the Euro were indeed behind the curve and simply wrong."

????But Latvia's accession into the euro club shouldn't be seen as a vote of confidence in the sickly common currency. The former Soviet republic has been banging to get into the currency club for years now, mostly in an attempt by the Latvian government to further distance itself both politically and economically from its former Russian overlords. In fact, Latvia really had no choice but to join the club given the terms of its entrance into the European Union in 2003, which states that it must join the Euro after hitting certain economic markers. Its currency has been pegged to the Euro since 2005, so for all intents and purposes it has been a de facto member of the club for years.

????The eurozone may be getting bigger, but that doesn't mean it is getting any healthier. Indeed, there remain pockets of economic trouble all around the continent: Spain's banks remain shaky; Italy's new government is reversing austerity measures; the Netherlands can't control its spending; and France remains delusional. With so many of the big eurozone countries in fiscal turmoil, it can be easy to overlook the issues bubbling up in the smaller countries on the periphery. But as we have seen with Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and most recently, Cyprus, big problems in small countries can quickly spin out of control, causing major financial disruptions across the eurozone.

????One of those small countries that seems to be in some big trouble at the moment is Slovenia. That may be surprising given its reputation for being the "most Western" and economically stable of the former communist Eastern bloc, but Slovenia has some major issues that could eventually force it to seek a bailout from the European Central Bank.

????At first blush, it doesn't appear as if the government has a spending problem, a la that of the likes of Greece or Italy. Its debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 53%, which is well below the EU average of around 90%. But the nation's economy is in free fall and shows no sign of recovering anytime soon. Its GDP has fallen by 10.6% from 2008, which is "one of the most severe falls in any Euro area economy," according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Domestic demand in the country has fallen even harder, down 20% from 2007. Lastly, export growth stalled last year as many of Slovenia's lead trading partners fell into recession. All this has resulted in a drop in tax receipts, which has forced the government to borrow more money at (relatively) high interest rates of around 5% to 8% to stay afloat. With the country's debt increasing and GDP falling, that below average debt-to-GDP ratio Slovenia is currently sporting will start to move up pretty fast.