????

????要想得到經(jīng)濟學(xué)家情況良好的判定，斯洛文尼亞還有一堆問題需要解決?？上У氖?，其中某些問題異常棘手，要獨自應(yīng)對似乎不大可能。斯洛文尼亞需要越過的最大障礙之一，即其他東歐鄰國早在上世紀(jì)90年代所處理過的問題，也就是向自由市場經(jīng)濟的過渡問題。

????雖然斯洛文尼亞與其他鄰國幾乎在同時擺脫了共產(chǎn)主義，但該國經(jīng)濟急速發(fā)展，從而使得它有力地跳過了自社會主義國家向資本主義國家邁進時所必須經(jīng)歷的許多痛苦步驟。比如說，國家仍然對許多生產(chǎn)資料實行控制，控制力度幾乎涉及國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟的一半。國有企業(yè)任人唯親、管理不善，致使經(jīng)濟運行低效。而且腐敗猖獗。又如，安永公司（Ernst and Young）近期開展的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，94%的斯洛文尼亞人認(rèn)為行賄屬于正常商業(yè)慣例。逃稅漏稅似乎也是這個國家面臨的重大問題。事實上，斯洛文尼亞總理雅奈茲?揚沙（上周鋃鐺入獄）早在年初就被迫下臺，原因是他被人發(fā)現(xiàn)在報稅問題上弄虛作假。

????斯洛文尼亞的經(jīng)濟危機已經(jīng)歸類為“銀行業(yè)”危機，同西班牙和愛爾蘭的遭遇一樣。但是，西班牙和愛爾蘭的危機根源集中于向私營部門提供的不良房產(chǎn)貸款，而斯洛文尼亞銀行業(yè)危機的根源卻集中于腐敗以及有組織的盜竊活動。事實證明，斯洛文尼亞的銀行的確在給人們借錢，但毫無疑問全是在給政府官員的“親朋好友”借錢，以方便他們持有國家控股公司的股權(quán)。此外，銀行還為人們進行管理層收購提供貸款，當(dāng)然這些人還是政府官員的這幫親朋好友，他們已經(jīng)持有國家控股公司股權(quán)。這些銀行同樣直接向斯洛文尼亞的企業(yè)出借大量資金，用以企業(yè)擴大規(guī)模，或者只是讓企業(yè)茍延殘喘。如果效率低下的工廠沒法付工資怎么辦？向銀行伸手借吧。

????這些貸款每一筆都是有后果的。歐盟發(fā)布的報告稱，斯洛文尼亞（非金融）公司部門的平均債務(wù)股本比約為200%，是歐盟范圍類遙遙領(lǐng)先的最高水平。分析師們稱，約有50%的尚未償還的銀行貸款的借方為斯洛文尼亞企業(yè)，其中30%為不良貸款。斯洛文尼亞上周公布，銀行貸款余額中，約有20%為不良貸款。也就是說，國內(nèi)每五筆銀行貸款中就有兩筆屬于不良貸款。大致可以肯定的是，這個數(shù)據(jù)還是保守估計。

????通過出售政府債券從投資者手中借取資金來填補銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的漏洞，這是斯洛文尼亞政府當(dāng)下正在設(shè)想的法子。為使得這項計劃成功落實，斯洛文尼亞政府必須要借到足夠多的資金來完成下面三件工作：1）對銀行進行資本重組；2）彌補預(yù)算赤字；以及3）償付其原先發(fā)行的債券（其中大量債券在未來幾個月內(nèi)很快到期）。

????斯洛文尼亞政府這項舉措成效如何呢？四月份，政府?dāng)M發(fā)債籌集1億歐元資金，不過僅僅售出價值約為5千萬歐元的債券。因為投資者對此毫無興趣。接著到五月份，穆迪（Moody's）將斯洛文尼亞信貸評級下調(diào)至非投資級別（即垃圾級債券）。但是兩天后，斯洛文尼亞奇跡般地聲稱，已向積極申購的投資者們賣出價值35億歐元的債券。主要買家是誰呢？答案是斯洛文尼亞的銀行。因此，從根本上講，向政府借出資金的正是斯洛文尼亞的國家控股銀行，然后政府又拿著這些資金來填補自身資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的漏洞。真是這樣嗎？是的，沒錯。

????Slovenia has a lot of issues it needs to resolve before economists can give it a clean bill of health. Unfortunately, some of them are so monumental that it seems impossible for the country to resolve on its own. Among the biggest hurdles Slovenia needs to jump over is a problem that its other Eastern European neighbors dealt with in the 1990s -- transition to a free-market economy.

????While Slovenia broke free of communism at pretty much the same time as the rest of its neighbors, its economy boomed to such a degree that it was able to skip many of the painful steps a country must go through when moving from a socialist to a capitalist state. For example, the state still controls much of the means of production, around 50% of the economy. Cronyism and bad management at the state-run firms have led to an inefficient economy. Corruption is rampant. For example, a recent study conducted by Ernst and Young found that 94% of Slovenes think bribes are a normal business practice. Tax dodging seems to be a big problem in the country, as well. In fact, the country's Prime Minister, Janez Jansa, was forced to step down earlier this year after it was found that he cheated on his taxes (he was sentenced to jail this week).

????Slovenia's economic crisis has been categorized as a "banking" crisis, a la the likes of Spain and Ireland. But while the roots of the crisis in Spain and Ireland centered on bad property loans to the private sector, the roots of Slovenia's banking crisis centers on corruption and organized theft. It turns out the banks were lending money to people -- no doubt close "friends" of the government -- to buy stakes in state-controlled firms. It also did the reverse, finance management buyouts for people, again close friends of the government, who had stakes in state-controlled firms. The banks also loaned lots of money directly to Slovenian companies to either expand, or in some cases, to simply keep the lights on. Can't make payroll at the inefficient factory? Just borrow it from the bank.

????All this borrowing has its consequences. The EU reports that the Slovenian (non-financial) corporate sector has an average debt-to-equity ratio of around 200% -- far and away the highest level of corporate indebtedness in the EU. Around 50% of the bank's loans outstanding were made to Slovenian companies, 30% of which are non-performing, analysts say. Slovenia reported this week that in total, around 20%, or one out of every five, of the nation's bank loans are non-performing. That number is almost certainly a conservative estimate.

????The government is attempting to fill the hole in the banks' balance sheet by borrowing money from investors through the sale of government bonds. For this scheme to be successful, the government must be able to borrow enough money to: a) recapitalize its banks; b) cover its budget deficit; and c) to cover its old bonds -- much of which are rapidly coming due over the next few months.

????How are they doing with that? Well, in April the government went to the market to raise 100 million euros but only managed to sell around half that much. No one was interested. Then in May, Moody's downgraded Slovenia's credit rating to non-investment grade (i.e. junk). But miraculously, two days later, the country said it sold 3.5 billion euros of debt to eager investors. Who was the main buyer? Slovenian banks. So Slovenia's state-controlled banks essentially loaned money to the government which will be used to fill the hole in their own balance sheet. Really? Yes, really.