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冰島再次成為歐洲的定時(shí)炸彈

冰島再次成為歐洲的定時(shí)炸彈

Cyrus Sanati 2013-08-14
冰島是全球金融危機(jī)期間第一個(gè)崩盤(pán)的國(guó)家,也是第一個(gè)實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈的國(guó)家。同時(shí),冰島面臨的問(wèn)題是大多數(shù)歐洲國(guó)家都面臨的問(wèn)題,它堪稱歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)之弊的一個(gè)樣本?,F(xiàn)在,新一輪的冰島危機(jī)可能再次來(lái)襲,而冰島的危機(jī)可能會(huì)是歐洲大陸危機(jī)的提前預(yù)演。

????冰島存疑的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢(shì)必將大白天下,而這可能會(huì)給歐洲其他國(guó)家?guī)?lái)嚴(yán)重后果。自2008年以來(lái),這個(gè)小島國(guó)一直得以規(guī)避全局性的經(jīng)濟(jì)崩盤(pán),這在很大程度上是因?yàn)楸鶏u政府實(shí)施的資本管制使得其本幣免于崩潰。與此同時(shí),這個(gè)國(guó)家的“僵尸”銀行都設(shè)法避免了徹底倒閉,因?yàn)樗鼈兊耐涎討?zhàn)術(shù)使它們與債權(quán)人清算擦肩而過(guò)。

????但是,冰島政府和銀行在本地人口與外部元素之間架設(shè)的隔離墻終于開(kāi)始坍塌。不幸的是,目前冰島在自救方面已經(jīng)心有余而力不足,它最終將不得不面對(duì)殘酷現(xiàn)實(shí)。但更令市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂的是,新一輪冰島貨幣危機(jī)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)可能會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)歐洲產(chǎn)生什么樣的影響?畢竟,2008年冰島轟然崩盤(pán)正是讓歐洲陷入債務(wù)危機(jī)的動(dòng)因,因?yàn)樗┞读藲W洲地區(qū)銀行系統(tǒng)的弱點(diǎn)。冰島再度崩盤(pán)可以輕易重新點(diǎn)燃投資者的擔(dān)憂情緒,從而讓歐洲大陸再度陷入恐慌。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期的冰島看上去不像一個(gè)主權(quán)國(guó)家,而更像是一只對(duì)沖基金。冰島的三家主要銀行過(guò)去在全球各地收購(gòu)資產(chǎn),最高峰的時(shí)候持有資產(chǎn)規(guī)模約為其年度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的10倍。它們之所以能夠吸引到如此巨額的資金,主要是因?yàn)樗鼈兿蛞杂?guó)人和荷蘭人為主的儲(chǔ)戶承諾豐厚的投資回報(bào)率——往往是這些海外儲(chǔ)戶所在國(guó)投資回報(bào)率的數(shù)倍。這些銀行曾一度能兌現(xiàn)這個(gè)諾言,因?yàn)樗鼈兛梢缘蛢r(jià)借入以某一貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的資金,然后以其他更高利率貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的資金借出。這還使得它們能夠向本國(guó)居民借出數(shù)十億冰島克朗,助長(zhǎng)了肆無(wú)忌憚的房地產(chǎn)泡沫。

????當(dāng)然,這一切最終都轟然倒塌。這些推動(dòng)銀行利潤(rùn)飆升的套利交易消失,而大量的房產(chǎn)貸款也變?yōu)椴涣假J款。冰島的經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始崩潰,陷入一個(gè)貨幣貶值與惡性通脹主導(dǎo)的破壞性螺旋,險(xiǎn)些使冰島克朗兌其他貨幣匯率墮入萬(wàn)劫不復(fù)的境地,居民儲(chǔ)蓄也差點(diǎn)一夜間變成廢紙。

????冰島政府迅速做出反應(yīng),在國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund,簡(jiǎn)稱:IMF)的幫助下,推出了資本控制措施限制資金出入境。此舉保住了冰島克朗幣值。與此同時(shí),IMF借給冰島近50億美元的穩(wěn)定基金用于紓困。這筆資金可能聽(tīng)上去并不多,但它實(shí)際上已經(jīng)超過(guò)冰島GDP的三分之一。

????現(xiàn)在冰島經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)反彈,增長(zhǎng)速度超過(guò)了大部分其他歐洲國(guó)家。失業(yè)率也從2009年的峰值8%大幅下降到如今的4%左右。與此同時(shí),國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)者信心也與日俱增,而旅游業(yè)也出現(xiàn)不斷增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭。旅游業(yè)是冰島兩大產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,另一大產(chǎn)業(yè)是漁業(yè)。所有的一切似乎表明,冰島已經(jīng)復(fù)蘇,至少大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家乃至IMF都這么認(rèn)為。

????The inevitable unmasking of Iceland's dubious economic recovery could have severe consequences for the rest of Europe. Since 2008, the small island nation has been able to avoid an all-out economic meltdown thanks largely to government-imposed capital controls that have kept its currency from imploding. At the same time, the nation's zombie banks have managed to avoid total collapse thanks to delay tactics that have allowed them to avoid settling with their creditors.

????But the walls the government and its banks erected to shield its population from the outside elements have finally started to crumble. Unfortunately, there is not much Iceland can do to save itself at this point; it will need to face the music eventually. The bigger concern is what impact another Icelandic currency crisis could have on Europe in the months ahead. After all, Iceland's spectacular collapse in 2008 helped set the European debt crisis in motion as it exposed weaknesses in the region's banking system. Another Icelandic meltdown could easily reignite investor fears, leading to yet another panic on the continent.

????During the boom years Iceland was run more like a hedge fund than a sovereign nation. Its three main banks accumulated assets from around the globe that at its height equaled around 10 times the nation's total annual economic output, or GDP. They were able to attract this enormous amount of capital by promising depositors, mostly in the U.K. and the Netherlands, returns on their cash that were multiples of what they could receive back home. For a time, the banks were able to deliver on their promises as they borrowed cheaply in one currency and lent in others that carried higher interest rates. This allowed them to lend billions of Icelandic Krona to their own population, fueling a property bubble of unmitigated proportion.

????Eventually, of course, it all came crashing down. The carry trade that fueled bank profits disappeared, and a great deal of those property loans turned sour. Iceland's economy started to crash, falling into a destructive devaluation-inflation led spiral that threatened to obliterate the value of the Icelandic Krona relative to other currencies and wipe out the savings of its citizens overnight.

????The Icelandic government responded quickly, and with the help of the International Monetary Fund, introduced capital controls to restrict the flow of money in and out of the country. This preserved the value of its currency. At the same time, the IMF lent Iceland nearly $5 billion to stabilize itself. That may not seem like a lot of money, but it is actually equal to more than a third of Iceland's GDP.

????Iceland's economy appears as if it has rebounded, growing faster than most of its European cousins. Unemployment has fallen sharply from a peak of 8% in 2009 to around half that today. At the same time, consumer confidence in the country is growing, as is tourism, which is one of the two major industries in Iceland, the other being fishing. All in all it seems that Iceland has recovered, at least that is what most economists and even the IMF say.

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