你的預(yù)期聽起來(lái)也不是那么有利于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????我覺(jué)得如果新興市場(chǎng)跌至谷底，美國(guó)也難以獨(dú)善其身。如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰，世界上沒(méi)有哪個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體能幸免于難。但這不是我的基本觀點(diǎn)。我的基本觀點(diǎn)是情況將逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，大型新興市場(chǎng)的走勢(shì)會(huì)放慢，與此同時(shí)，信心和資金會(huì)不斷回到美國(guó)和日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。

????那么現(xiàn)在你會(huì)把資金投向何處呢？

????我最看好那些正在進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革、而且建立了新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的國(guó)家，包括菲律賓、墨西哥和巴基斯坦。摩根士丹利投資管理最近一直在向東歐投資。我們認(rèn)為這個(gè)市場(chǎng)有價(jià)值。波蘭等國(guó)的基本面相當(dāng)好，而且有跡象表明歐洲正在擺脫經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

那么你認(rèn)為歐洲的問(wèn)題已經(jīng)得到解決？

????歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)處于失衡狀態(tài)，所以永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)V型反彈。歐洲國(guó)家的債務(wù)仍然過(guò)高，人口結(jié)構(gòu)比美國(guó)還糟糕。但擺脫危機(jī)對(duì)波蘭等國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)應(yīng)該是件好事。

讓吉姆?奧尼爾失業(yè)讓你感到驕傲嗎？

????沒(méi)什么可說(shuō)的，我聽說(shuō)他是退休。

拉古蘭?拉賈（另一位印度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，以向美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)發(fā)出金融危機(jī)警告而著稱）最近成為印度央行行長(zhǎng)。你嫉妒嗎?

????（大笑）不。我很滿意自己的現(xiàn)狀。拉賈非常聰明，但這份工作難度很大。印度的基本面問(wèn)題非常嚴(yán)重，就算一名出色的央行行長(zhǎng)也難以解決。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

What you are predicting doesn't sound so positive for the U.S. economy either.

????If the emerging markets have a complete crash, then I don't think the U.S. can do well. No economy in the world will survive if China's economy implodes. But that's not my base case. What I am talking about is a gradual shift away where you see the large emerging markets slow down at the same time that confidence and capital is returning to the U.S., Japan, and other developed nations.

So where you would you be putting your money now?

????My best bets are countries where economic reform is happening and where there is new political leadership. That's happening in the Philippines and Mexico and Pakistan. Morgan Stanley Investment Management has recently been putting money into Eastern Europe. We see value there. The fundamentals of Poland and others are quite good, and there are signs that Europe is pulling out of its recession.

So you think Europe's problems are behind it?

????Europe will never have a V-shaped recovery because of its imbalances. There's still too much debt and the demographics are worse than in the U.S. But the fact that they are pulling out of a recession should be good for Poland and others.

Are you proud of driving Jim O'Neil out of a job?

????No comment. I heard he retired.

Raghuram Rajan [another Indian economist who is famous for warning the Fed about the financial crisis] was recently picked to be the head of India's central bank. Jealous?

????(Laughs) No. I am happy where I am. Rajan is a very smart guy, but he's got a tough job. Indian's fundamental problems are very deep, deeper than anything a good central banker can fix.