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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)考慮曲線退出經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激行動(dòng)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)考慮曲線退出經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激行動(dòng)

Stephen Gandel 2013-09-27
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮采用華爾街方式來(lái)退出量化寬松政策:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)把美國(guó)國(guó)債作為擔(dān)保品抵押給銀行,銀行為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提供隔夜資金,獲得收益,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)借此回籠市場(chǎng)上流通的貨幣,推高利率。但業(yè)內(nèi)人士擔(dān)心,這種方式可能導(dǎo)致影子銀行體系膨脹。

????另外一個(gè)擔(dān)憂是,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)利用回購(gòu)市場(chǎng)可能形成擠出效應(yīng),影響到通用電氣(General Electric)和其他依賴貨幣市場(chǎng)融資的公司。為了與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)爭(zhēng)奪資金,大公司或許不得不為自己的短期貸款支付更高的利率。當(dāng)然,這正是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目的。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在試圖提高利率。但隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)借入這么龐大的資金,大公司貸款利率的快速增長(zhǎng)可能超出預(yù)期。結(jié)果將市場(chǎng)從一個(gè)人為矯正

????“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)沖進(jìn)回購(gòu)市場(chǎng),希望能修復(fù)量化寬松產(chǎn)生的問(wèn)題。結(jié)果是在越來(lái)越多的市場(chǎng)中,推動(dòng)價(jià)格的是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ),而并不是投資者。我們將喪失正常的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)體系,”市場(chǎng)策略師詹姆斯?比安科說(shuō)?!懊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)官員會(huì)說(shuō),這些擔(dān)憂用錯(cuò)了地方,但他們總是這么說(shuō)?!?/p>

????當(dāng)然,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)延遲逐步退出計(jì)劃意味著我們可能要等待更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間,才能看到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)真正推高利率。因此,現(xiàn)在還沒(méi)有什么好擔(dān)心的。但如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)遲遲不停止刺激措施,等待的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),將來(lái)就越有可能我們最終還是得擔(dān)心這個(gè)問(wèn)題。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????Another concern is that the Fed's use of the repo market might crowd out General Electric (GE) and other large companies that rely on money market funds for borrowing. Big corporations might have to pay a higher interest rate for their short-term loans to compete with the Fed. That, of course, is the point. The Fed is trying to raise interest rates. But with the Fed borrowing so much, borrowing rates for big companies could shoot up more than expected. The result is a market that's jumping from one artificial correction to another.

????"The Fed is jumping into the repo market to fix problems that were caused by quantitative easing. What you get is more and more markets where prices are not being set by investors but by the Fed. We are losing the market's normal price discovery system," says market strategist James Bianco. "Fed officials will say these concerns are misplaced, but they always say that."

????Of course, the fact that the Fed put off tapering means that it will be longer until the Fed actually raises interest rates. So there is nothing to worry about, yet. But the longer Fed waits before calling off its stimulus efforts, the more likely it is that we will have to worry about it someday.

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