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大預(yù)測(cè):美國債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的4個(gè)恐怖情形

大預(yù)測(cè):美國債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的4個(gè)恐怖情形

Stephen Gandel 2013-10-09
美國債務(wù)違約可能會(huì)引發(fā)一系列災(zāi)難性的后果,甚至可能導(dǎo)致美國金融系統(tǒng)徹底崩盤。而這場(chǎng)危機(jī)到底會(huì)如何展開?4種情形最有可能出現(xiàn)。

????過去,政府官員總是將安撫市場(chǎng)視為己任。不過,這都是過去的事了。上周,美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬和美國財(cái)長雅各布?盧均表示,他們認(rèn)為華爾街對(duì)美國債務(wù)上限違約的畏懼之心還不夠。

????目前,大多數(shù)華爾街人士看起來仍然賭定圍繞債務(wù)上限最終將達(dá)成一項(xiàng)交易。但在一些交易席位,違約的可能性正在開始滲入。沒人知道違約意味著什么,但每個(gè)人都知道結(jié)果會(huì)很糟糕。

????交易員認(rèn)為違約可能導(dǎo)致美國金融體系大坍塌,或者至少造成災(zāi)難性場(chǎng)面,下面是這場(chǎng)危機(jī)可能的演變方式。

????Government officials used to see it as part of their job to calm the markets. Not anymore. Last week, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew both said they thought Wall Street wasn't freaking out enough about the possibility of a debt ceiling default.

????Right now, most of Wall Street appears to be betting that a deal will get done. But on some trading desks, the possibility of a default is starting to sink in. No one knows what it means, but everyone agrees it would be bad.

????Here are some of the ways traders think a default could result in a total collapse of our financial system, or at least a disastrous scenario.

????熱狗困境

????普遍認(rèn)識(shí)是,如果美國政府違約,它將在10月末債務(wù)到期時(shí)違約。但這可不一定。一些交易員因此十分擔(dān)憂。為什么?情形和熱狗一樣。

????加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)(RBC Capital markets)的策略師們?cè)谏现馨l(fā)布的報(bào)告中稱,華爾街的交易系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)無法將違約的美國國債與其他債券區(qū)分開來。這就是華爾街人士所謂的熱狗困境:熱狗里的香腸即便只有一小塊肉是臭的,你也不會(huì)吃了。

????“當(dāng)初市場(chǎng)設(shè)立時(shí),根本沒人想過美國國債違約的可能,”RBC美國利率策略主管邁克爾?克洛赫蒂表示。

????我們?cè)谶@次金融危機(jī)的早期就曾經(jīng)遇到過這樣的問題。當(dāng)時(shí)雖然違約的住房貸款數(shù)量相對(duì)很少,還是沒人想要按揭債券。這種有毒的債券被絞碎,混入不同債券。然后,這些債券也被絞碎,塞進(jìn)其他的債券。

????對(duì)于以避險(xiǎn)投資者為主的美國國債市場(chǎng),這個(gè)問題會(huì)更糟。擔(dān)心可能卷入違約債券會(huì)讓很多避險(xiǎn)投資者逃離這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。美國債券價(jià)格將出現(xiàn)暴跌??寺搴盏僬f:“這種情況會(huì)非常、非常糟糕?!?

????The hot dog dilemma

????The general consensus is that if the government defaults it will be on debt coming due in late October. But not necessarily. And that has some traders concerned. Why? Hot dogs.

????Strategists at RBC Capital markets, in a report last week, said Wall Street's trading systems are not set up to sort out defaulted Treasury bonds from the rest. This is what Wall Streeters call the hot dog dilemma: Even if a small portion of the meat going into a frank is funky, you won't eat it.

????"When markets were set up, no one really ever contemplated the Treasury defaulting," says Michael Cloherty, who is the head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC.

????We ran into this problem in the early days of the financial crisis. Even though relatively few home loans had defaulted, no one wanted mortgage bonds. The toxic debt had been ground up and mixed into various bonds. And those bonds had been ground up and stuffed into other bonds.

????The problem could be worse in the Treasury market, which is generally made up of risk-averse investors. The fear of being stuck with a defaulted bond might cause many of those investors to run from the market altogether. U.S. debt prices would plunge. "It could be really, really bad," says Cloherty.

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