????觸及債務(wù)上限并非世界末日——至少它不會(huì)馬上到來(lái)。如果美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)議員在10月17日最終期限過(guò)后仍然爭(zhēng)執(zhí)不休，很可能出現(xiàn)的情況就是美國(guó)政府靠現(xiàn)金支撐一個(gè)月左右，然后就必須開(kāi)始做出艱難的抉擇。如果這種情況延續(xù)到12月份，大家就不用惦記今年的圣誕節(jié)了。

????共和黨人在最近的預(yù)算論戰(zhàn)中一直信誓旦旦地說(shuō)他們不會(huì)把債務(wù)上限當(dāng)做迫使奧巴馬政府讓步的談判籌碼。的確，他們?cè)敢庾屨P(guān)門(mén)，而且上周他們已經(jīng)這樣做了，但他們不愿意因?yàn)樽约壕芙^提高債務(wù)上限而讓美國(guó)違約。但就在剛剛過(guò)去的這個(gè)周末，眾議院議長(zhǎng)約翰?博納在美國(guó)廣播公司（ABC）的This Week節(jié)目上說(shuō)“眾議院投票的目的不是為了通過(guò)一個(gè)明確的債務(wù)上限”，這番言論激化了這場(chǎng)論戰(zhàn)。博納還說(shuō)：“總統(tǒng)不跟我們對(duì)話，這樣做是在冒違約的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！敝芏?，奧巴馬做出反擊。他表示，今年民主黨參議員曾19次嘗試和共和黨人商討預(yù)算，但都遭到了拒絕。

????在這場(chǎng)和奧巴馬政府的長(zhǎng)期博弈中，共和黨方面此時(shí)加碼的原因還不清楚。這可能是博納議長(zhǎng)保留顏面的舉動(dòng)，目的是想讓奧巴馬政府接受本方在預(yù)算問(wèn)題上做出較小的讓步，這樣他就不至于一敗涂地。無(wú)論出于什么原因，違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本身就已經(jīng)讓本周的華爾街打了個(gè)哆嗦，美國(guó)股市遭遇重挫，美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率則小幅上升。周二，體現(xiàn)股市波動(dòng)幅度的VIX指數(shù)升至20以上，表明市場(chǎng)真的有了顧慮。

????如果未能及時(shí)提高債務(wù)上限，很難說(shuō)會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣的局面，因?yàn)檫@種情況前所未有。實(shí)際上，自1917年設(shè)立以來(lái)，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)已經(jīng)73次投票同意提高政府債務(wù)上限。但考慮到政府債務(wù)即將達(dá)到17萬(wàn)億美元（104.47萬(wàn)億元人民幣）這個(gè)難以維繼的高水平，再加上共和黨內(nèi)部意見(jiàn)不統(tǒng)一，第74次投票可能會(huì)變得非常有意思。

????那么，如果美國(guó)政府在10月17日觸及債務(wù)上限，會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣的情況呢？財(cái)政部的“支票賬戶”里還會(huì)剩下300億美元（1843.5億元人民幣），四處都會(huì)充斥著恐慌氣氛。有些人認(rèn)為，財(cái)政部可能會(huì)把這些資金首先用在比較“重要”的方面，同時(shí)暫緩那些不太重要的支出，直到國(guó)會(huì)恢復(fù)神智，提高債務(wù)上限。比如，財(cái)政部可能會(huì)決定發(fā)放退伍軍人福利，但暫時(shí)不給現(xiàn)役部隊(duì)撥款。

????但誰(shuí)來(lái)決定哪些事情比較重要呢？不是財(cái)政部。已經(jīng)有人指出，由財(cái)政部進(jìn)行選擇是非法行為，他們不會(huì)這樣做。無(wú)論怎樣，就算有這樣的想法，財(cái)政部也可能無(wú)法采取這樣的行動(dòng)，原因是作為美國(guó)政府的出納機(jī)構(gòu)，財(cái)政部顯然沒(méi)辦法在支付對(duì)象和支付時(shí)間方面實(shí)現(xiàn)差異化運(yùn)作。這就好比你的支票賬戶每天都需要自動(dòng)支付8000萬(wàn)筆款項(xiàng)，停止一千筆付款都很難，更不用說(shuō)數(shù)百萬(wàn)筆了。人們可能覺(jué)得政府的支付系統(tǒng)會(huì)比較完善，但顯然這個(gè)系統(tǒng)只是在機(jī)械地運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。幸好，向美國(guó)國(guó)債持有人支付利息的是另一套支付系統(tǒng)，所以從理論上講政府可以把這筆付款安排在其他所有要支付的款項(xiàng)之前。雖然先支付債券利息、而不是老年人社?？赡懿缓戏ɑ蛘卟坏赖拢梢员苊饷绹?guó)國(guó)債違約。

????當(dāng)然，只要未能及時(shí)向任何一位債權(quán)人付款，從技術(shù)上講美國(guó)政府就已經(jīng)違約——無(wú)論對(duì)方是堪薩斯州沒(méi)能領(lǐng)到社保的老奶奶，還是持有美國(guó)國(guó)債的中國(guó)政府。但華爾街和白宮說(shuō)到自己所擔(dān)心的政府“違約”時(shí)，他們想到的不是那位老奶奶（盡管他們應(yīng)該想到她）。相反，他們擔(dān)心的是市場(chǎng)陷入混亂，同時(shí)導(dǎo)致所謂的“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇”果實(shí)化為烏有。他們擔(dān)心的是如果不能向一、兩名債券持有人支付利息，美國(guó)政府就無(wú)法繼續(xù)以合理的利率發(fā)行債券。

????Breaching the debt ceiling wouldn't be the end of the world -- at least not right away. If Washington continues to squabble past the October 17th deadline the country could probably hold things together using cash for about a month or so before it had to start making the hard decisions. But if this thing goes on into December, you can just forget about Christmas this year.

????Throughout the recent budget debate in Washington, the Republicans have sworn up and down that they would not use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to win concessions from the Obama administration. Sure, they would shut the government down, as they did last week, but they wouldn't allow the U.S. to default on its commitments by refusing to raise the debt limit. But this past weekend, House Speaker John Boehner escalated the budget fight saying on ABC's This Week, that "the votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit." He followed up, saying that "the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us." On Tuesday President Obama shot back saying that Senate Democrats have tried to discuss the budget with Republicans 19 times this year but were rejected.

????It is unclear why the Republicans upped the stakes in their long-standing poker game with the Obama administration. It could be a face-saving move by the speaker to get the administration to agree to smaller budget concessions, so that he wouldn't have to walk away totally defeated. Whatever the reason, the mere threat of a U.S. default caused Wall Street to shiver a bit this week, with stocks taking a dive and Treasury yields edging upwards. On Tuesday the VIX volatility index moved above 20, suggesting that the markets have become officially worried.

????It is hard to say for sure what could occur if the government failed to raise the debt limit in time as it has never happened before. Indeed, Congress has successfully voted to raise the debt limit a total of 73 times since it was created in 1917. But with the nation's debt approaching an unsustainably high $17 trillion and with the Republican Party fragmented, the 74th time could be the charm.

????So what happens on October 17th and the government has hit the debt ceiling? The Treasury has $30 billion left in its "checking account" and panic roams the streets. Some believe the Treasury could prioritize its spending to pay the more "important" things first and put off less important payments until the government comes to its senses and raises the debt ceiling. For example it may choose to pay veterans benefits but put off paying active duty troops.

????But who is to say what is more important? Not the Treasury. It has said that it is illegal for them to pick and choose winners and that they wouldn't do it. In any case, it probably couldn't even do it if it wanted to as the government's check writing machine apparently has no way of differentiating who it is paying and when. It's as if you had 80 million automatic debits in your checking account every single day – it would be hard to stop a thousand of them, but millions? One would think that the government would have a more sophisticated payment network but apparently it just works on autopilot. Luckily, interest payments made to those holding Treasury bonds are on a separate payment system, so in theory the government could prioritize those payments over all others. While it might be illegal or unethical to prioritize interest payments over, say, social security checks to the elderly, it would avoid the nation defaulting on its bonds.

????To be sure, the government would technically be in default the second it delays payment to any of its creditors -- whether it be your grandma in Kansas who didn't receive her social security check or the People's Republic of China who didn't receive the interest on its cache of U.S. Treasury bonds. But when Wall Street and the White House say they are worried about a government "default" they aren't thinking about grandma (though they should); rather, they are worried about the markets going haywire and crushing what's left of the so-called "economic recovery." If the U.S. misses an interest payment or two the fear is that the government won't be able to issue more debt at reasonable rates.