美國債務(wù)上限難題:先還債,還是先發(fā)社保
????當(dāng)然,出現(xiàn)上述情況的條件是財(cái)政部決定把老奶奶放在中國和其他債券持有人之前。這樣的考驗(yàn)很快就會(huì)到來。10月17日之后,美國政府的賬戶里就將只剩下約300億美元(1843.5億元人民幣)資金,再加上平均每天約70億美元(430.15億元人民幣)的遞延稅收入,這就是美國政府所能動(dòng)用的全部資金——而且這種情況也不會(huì)維持很久。到11月初,財(cái)政部就要為聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)(Medicare)撥款約170億美元(1044.65億元人民幣);為社保撥款250億美元(1536.25億元人民幣),而且此后每周還需要為社保提供120億美元(737.4億元人民幣)資金;此外還要為現(xiàn)役和退伍軍人,包括補(bǔ)充保障收入(Supplemental Security Income)領(lǐng)取人,撥款250億美元。11月15日,政府還得向債券持有人支付約310億美元(1904.95億元人民幣)利息——屆時(shí)就可能出現(xiàn)資金缺口。 ????在這種情況下,美國政府有可能推遲還債時(shí)間,直到獲得資金或者債務(wù)上限問題得到解決——它會(huì)有什么樣的反應(yīng)將主要取決于市場做何反應(yīng)。此外,接下來會(huì)發(fā)生什么完全沒人說得準(zhǔn)。為了老奶奶和中國著想,但愿我們永遠(yuǎn)也不用知道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:Charlie??? |
????That is, of course, if the Treasury decides to put grandma first in line in front of China and other bondholders. The test will come sooner than later. After the 17th the U.S. will only have around $30 billion in its account. It receives on average around $7 billion a day in revenue from withholding taxes. That revenue, combined with the $30 billion, is all the money the U.S. can live on -- it won't last very long. At the beginning of November the Treasury will need to pay out some $17 billion to Medicare; $25 billion to social security (with another $12 billion weekly thereafter); and $25 billion for military and veteran pay, including those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). On November 15th the government will have to pay around $31 billion in interest due to bondholders -- it probably won't have enough cash to cover it. ????The government could then delay payments on its debt until it has the money or until a deal is worked out -- how it responds will be dictated largely on how the market responds. Beyond that, it is really anyone's guess as to what could happen next. For grandma and China's sake, let's hope we never find out. |