????讓我們進一步回顧一下歷史。20世紀80年代中期，在社會主義總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?密特朗治下，法國經(jīng)濟做出了“正確轉(zhuǎn)向”，采取了限制開支、裁減聯(lián)邦公務員并停止國有化等做法——當時我就在法國。這些緊縮措施讓法國成為德國的強大對手，而且?guī)砹硕嗄甑膹妱旁鲩L。從2001年到2005年，法國再次展現(xiàn)了強大的潛力，當時領導法國的是保守派總統(tǒng)雅克?希拉克和財政部長蒂埃里?布雷頓。不論你是否相信，2005年前后的法國在大多數(shù)方面都強于德國——失業(yè)率較低；債務占GDP的65%，水平適中而且跟德國差不多；增長率達到2%以上，和德國相當。

????隨后，在尼古拉?薩科齊和弗朗索瓦?奧朗德的領導下，法國的經(jīng)濟形勢急轉(zhuǎn)直下，令人吃驚。法國的失業(yè)率達到11.1%，而德國的失業(yè)率只有6.7%。2014年債務將占法國GDP的95%，這是個危險的水平，比德國的債務/GDP比例高15個百分點。2012年，法國經(jīng)濟停滯不前，2013年將增長0.1%。德國2013年的增長率也不高，為0.4%，但區(qū)別在于德國工業(yè)在全球市場上的競爭力很強，法國工業(yè)卻不是這樣。和克魯格曼教授的觀點正好相反，法國的未來顯得黯淡無光。為什么？這就是原因。

????1998年以來，法國在全球出口市場上的份額從7%下降到了3%。2004年至今，法國的出口型企業(yè)從12.4萬個減少到了11.7萬個；德國在這方面則實現(xiàn)了大幅增長，現(xiàn)在德國出口型企業(yè)的數(shù)量已經(jīng)是法國的兩倍。

????法國的問題在于成本。成本問題則來自兩個方面：昂貴的勞動力和陳舊的生產(chǎn)設施。2005年以來，法國和德國的單位勞動力成本，或者說汽車、計算機等制造業(yè)的工資和福利分別上升了25%和7%。法國工人的生產(chǎn)率稍低于德國工人，但比后者掙得多。法國工人的每小時工資和福利約為35歐元，德國工人約為34歐元。

????需要注意的一個要點是，和全世界的勞動者相比，法國工人相當能干。研究機構(gòu)Flash Economics指出，法國工人的生產(chǎn)率看起來很高的主要原因是，法國工人的工作時間是工業(yè)化國家里最短的。經(jīng)濟繁榮時，法國公司不愿意招人，原因是經(jīng)濟衰退時解雇員工的成本很高。因此，法國公司的員工數(shù)量往往偏少。

????真正地問題是法國企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)設施、供應鏈、倉庫和計算機系統(tǒng)都很陳舊，原因是因為稅賦過重，盈利不足以支撐新的資本品投資。因此，法國的整體生產(chǎn)率，也就是勞動力和生產(chǎn)設備的產(chǎn)出水平自20世紀90年代末以來就沒有得到絲毫提升。

????平價汽車和鋼材產(chǎn)品等大眾化行業(yè)在法國所占的比例很高，成本問題因此特別嚴重。德國有奧迪和奔馳，法國則出產(chǎn)標致和雷諾。和德國善于制造的豪華轎車和機械工具相比，過于普通的法國產(chǎn)品對價格上漲的敏感性要高得多。就這樣，較高的成本和不斷上升的產(chǎn)品價格給法國的出口帶來了沉重打擊。

????過去，法國的競爭力問題從未帶來過災難，因為法國可以一直讓法朗貶值。而今，歐元流通后，這條路走不通了。解決問題的辦法包括減輕公司稅負，降低福利帶來的成本，從而使勞動力具有競爭力，并將利潤重新交還給公司，讓它們有錢修建最先進的工廠。可惜，克魯格曼教授不會認同這樣的做法。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie??????

????Let's go back even further. In the mid-1980s, France made an economic "right turn" under Socialist President Francois Mitterrand -- I was there at the time -- into spending discipline, reductions in the federal workforce, and an end to nationalizations. The austerity program made France a formidable competitor to Germany and led to years of strong growth. In the early to mid-2000s, France demonstrated its powerful potential once again under conservative Jacques Chirac and his finance minister Thierry Breton. In the mid-2000s, France was, believe it or not, beating Germany on most metrics. Its jobless rate was lower, its debt-to-GDP was about the same at a modest 65%, and its growth rate matched its northern neighbor in the 2% range.

????What's happened since, under Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Fran?ois Hollande, is a shocking reversal of fortune. France's unemployment rate stands at 11.1%, vs. 6.7% in Germany. France's ratio of debt-to-GDP will hit 95%, a dangerous number, in 2014. That's 15 points above Germany. France grew at 0.1% in 2013 after posting 0% expansion in 2012. Germany's not growing much either at 0.4% for 2013. The difference is that Germany's industries are highly competitive on world markets, and France's are not. That's why, contrary to Krugman's arguments, France's future looks bleak.

????Since 1998, France's share of global exports has fallen from 7% to 3%. The number of companies selling goods abroad has declined from 124,000 to 117,000 since 2004, compared to a big increase in Germany, which now boasts twice as many exporters as its neighbor.

????For France, the problem is costs, and that problem divides into two categories: expensive labor and old plants. Since the mid-2000s, the cost in wages and benefits of making a car or computer, unit labor costs, have risen 25% in France and 7% in Germany. French workers are also somewhat less productive than German workers. But French workers earn more than their German counterparts, around 35 euros an hour in wages and benefits versus 34 euros for the Germans.

????It's important to note that French workers are quite productive compared to their global counterparts. The research firm Flash Economics points out that the main reason the productivity numbers look good is that French workers toil fewer hours than those of any other industrial nation. Companies are reluctant to hire workers in good times because of the high costs of laying them off in recessions. Hence, they tend to operate with lean workforces.

????The real problem is that the plants, supply chains, warehouses, and computer systems are antiquated. The reason is that overtaxed corporations lack the earnings to invest in new capital equipment. As a result, France's total productivity -- output for its use of labor and plants -- has shown no increase whatsoever since the late 1990s.

????The cost problem is especially serious because France is heavily concentrated in commoditized industries, including inexpensive cars and steel products. Germany sells Audis and Mercedes; France sells Peugeots and Renaults. Because French products are so ordinary, they're far more sensitive to higher prices than the luxury cars and machine tools that are Germany's specialty. Hence, higher costs, and rising prices, hit France's exports hard.

????In the past, France's competitiveness issue never careened into disaster because it could always devalue its currency. Today, under the euro, that option is gone. The solution is reducing taxes on business and lowering benefits costs to make labor competitive and restore the profits that would allow companies to build state-of-the-art plants. Unfortunately, that's a course of action of which Krugman wouldn't approve.