????華爾街可能是伊朗和美國之間長期博弈的最新受害者。有消息稱，伊朗和所謂的“五加一”國家已在上周末達成協(xié)議。協(xié)議將限制伊朗的鈾濃縮活動，也會減輕該國受到的經(jīng)濟制裁。受此影響，本周一原油價格下降，各國股市全面飆升。

????但細看之下，這份協(xié)議幾乎沒有令人興奮的地方，至少在伊美博弈剛剛開始的時候是這樣。雖然有人希望這能成為和平解決爭端的第一步，但局勢激化的可能性依然很高。

????奧巴馬總統(tǒng)對美伊外交官周末簽署的這份協(xié)議發(fā)表了評論。聽了他的話，人們可能會覺得他應(yīng)該再得一次諾貝爾和平獎，因為這份協(xié)議避免了一場你死我活的核戰(zhàn)爭。然而，盡管這是美國和伊朗首次簽署官方協(xié)議，具有歷史意義，但它在歷史上的作用并不像其他協(xié)議那么重要，比如說化解古巴導(dǎo)彈危機的1962年美蘇協(xié)議。

????這份協(xié)議的主要目的是讓雙方都獲得一些喘息空間，為后續(xù)談判做好鋪墊，除此之外別無他用。雙方將在六個月到一年時間內(nèi)擬定一份更為全面的協(xié)議。在此期間，美伊都將向?qū)Ψ绞竞?，但相互的饋贈非常之少。雙方的堅定立場都沒有真正動搖，因此只是有限地改變了實際狀況。

????想想看，伊朗給了美國什么呢？首先，他們同意國際原子能機構(gòu)（IAEA）檢查員對伊朗的核設(shè)施進行監(jiān)督。但這不是什么大的讓步，因為IAEA檢查員已經(jīng)可以進入大多數(shù)伊朗核設(shè)施，而且還在8月份發(fā)表了最新的監(jiān)督報告。

????其次，伊朗方面同意停止修建可能用于生產(chǎn)钚的設(shè)施。同樣，這也只是后退了一小步，原因是據(jù)報道，該設(shè)施一直未完工，是因為更為嚴厲的制裁造成伊朗無論如何也得不到讓該設(shè)施投產(chǎn)所需的零部件。

????最后，伊朗同意停止鈾濃縮活動，但在此之前伊朗生產(chǎn)的濃縮鈾將超過某些類型的核反應(yīng)堆投入運轉(zhuǎn)所需要的數(shù)量。這似乎也不是什么了不起的成就，因為IAEA的最新報告指出，伊朗擁有的鈾中，純度令人擔心的鈾只占總量的4%，而且這種鈾的產(chǎn)量一直很少。看來，這份協(xié)議并沒有讓伊朗放棄太多東西。相應(yīng)的，美國及其盟友的讓步也不大。

????Wall Street may be the latest victim in the long-running chess game involving Iran and the U.S. Equity prices shot up across the globe as oil prices fell Monday on the news that Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 had reached an agreement over the weekend, which would curb development of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.

????But a closer look at the deal suggests there is little to be excited about, at least not this early in the game. While one hopes this could be the first step to a peaceful resolution, there still remains a good chance that things could blow up.

????Listening to President Obama speak about the agreement his diplomats sealed with Iran over the weekend, one might think he deserved another Nobel Peace Prize for averting all-out thermonuclear war. But while the deal is historic, as it marks the first time the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran have officially penned an agreement together, it isn't as historic as, say, the agreement between the U.S. and the USSR in 1962 that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis.

????The Iranian deal is primarily about giving both sides a little breathing room, setting the stage for upcoming negotiations and shouldn't be seen as anything but that. The two sides have six months to a year to hash out a more comprehensive agreement. During that time, each side will get a little something as a good faith gift -- a very little something. Neither side really budged from its hardline position, limiting the amount of change in the status quo.

????Consider what the Iranians gave to the other side. They first agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to monitor their nuclear facilities. That wasn't much of a giveaway, though, considering that IAEA inspectors already have access to most of Iran's facilities, with their most recent report issued in August.

????The Iranians also agreed to halt construction of a facility that could possibly make plutonium. That too is a bit of a weak giveaway as the facility reportedly remains unfinished because the tighter sanctions have prevented Iran from acquiring the necessary parts to bring the sucker online anyway.

????Lastly, Iran agreed to halt the enrichment of uranium to levels that are higher than what is required to feed certain types of nuclear reactors. That also doesn't seem to be a big deal as the latest IAEA report points out that only around 4% of the nation's uranium stockpiles have been enriched beyond that worrisome threshold and that production remains low.

????The Iranians don't seem to be giving up too much in the deal. As such, the U.S. and its allies aren't either.