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貝萊德是否大到不能倒?

貝萊德是否大到不能倒?

Sheila Bair 2013-12-06
美國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正在評(píng)估資本管理公司給市場(chǎng)帶來的潛在系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并有可能推出相應(yīng)的金融改革措施。消息一出,貝萊德等資本管理巨頭馬上開始了游說,希望抵制可能的改革。

????聽!你聽到了嗎?圣誕假期臨近,你聽到從美國首都華盛頓傳來的響亮的鐘聲了嗎?那是基督教組織救世軍的圣誕老人的街頭游行?還是教會(huì)的鐘樓在播放經(jīng)典的圣誕節(jié)歌曲《鐘聲頌歌》(Carol of the Bells)?又或者是像圣誕節(jié)經(jīng)典影片《美好人生》(It's a Wonderful Life)所講述的那樣,是天使們得到了翅膀?

????都不是。它是美國游說人士投身金融行業(yè)反對(duì)金融改革的最新斗爭(zhēng),同時(shí)按下計(jì)時(shí)收費(fèi)器的聲音。我說的改革是監(jiān)管規(guī)模達(dá)數(shù)萬億美元的資產(chǎn)管理行業(yè)的初期努力。這場(chǎng)斗爭(zhēng)有望比大型銀行早前針對(duì)沃爾克法則中禁止投機(jī)交易這個(gè)提議發(fā)起的斗爭(zhēng)更激烈。

????華盛頓官場(chǎng)上聽到的響聲是政府研究團(tuán)隊(duì)——美國財(cái)政部金融研究辦公室(Office of Financial Research, OFR)發(fā)布的一份看起來似乎無關(guān)痛癢的報(bào)告。OFR由多德-弗蘭克金融改革法案創(chuàng)建,職責(zé)包括開展、贊助與“金融穩(wěn)定”相關(guān)的研究。這么做似乎合情合理,畢竟,2008年的金融危機(jī)幾乎拖垮了整個(gè)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????OFR受到上級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)——金融穩(wěn)定監(jiān)督委員會(huì)(Financial Stability Oversight Council,簡稱FSOC)的指示,要求密切關(guān)注與資產(chǎn)管理公司相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。FSOC是一個(gè)由全球金融機(jī)構(gòu)監(jiān)管者組成的國際組織。共同基金、私募資本、對(duì)沖基金、各大保險(xiǎn)公司的資產(chǎn)管理部門以及銀行共同管理著總額高達(dá)53萬億美元的資產(chǎn)。其中有10家公司的資產(chǎn)管理額均超過1萬億美元。貝萊德(BlackRock)是目前為止最大的資本管理公司,資本高達(dá)4.1萬億美元。

????雖然OFR的報(bào)告缺少足夠的數(shù)據(jù),不那么讓人信服,但是,如果仔細(xì)分析下資產(chǎn)管理公司,我們就會(huì)不寒而栗地發(fā)現(xiàn),他們和當(dāng)年金融危機(jī)中的銀行業(yè)如此相像。類似過度杠桿化(為了更多收益而不加思考的放大杠桿)、為獲取收益而承擔(dān)巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債比例不當(dāng)、將資產(chǎn)隱藏在多個(gè)賬戶從而逃脫監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和大眾投資者……這些毛病資產(chǎn)管理公司一個(gè)不落,全染上了。

????OFR發(fā)布的這份報(bào)告是不是完美無缺?不。不過話說回來,有什么事情是完美的?我認(rèn)為,這份報(bào)告的根本目的不過是幫助金融穩(wěn)定監(jiān)督委員會(huì)拓寬視野,不要只盯著已經(jīng)受到監(jiān)管的銀行體系,還要增進(jìn)對(duì)資產(chǎn)管理公司的業(yè)務(wù)以及活動(dòng)的了解,以便判斷是否存在任何可能危及市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這是金融穩(wěn)定監(jiān)督委員會(huì)和OFR的職責(zé)所在。

????人們(包括我在內(nèi))對(duì)大銀行總是喜歡落井下石,但信不信由你,大銀行并不是2008年金融危機(jī)所有問題的根源所在。資產(chǎn)管理公司和保險(xiǎn)公司也同樣脫不了干系?;厥?年前,納稅人提心吊膽地看著聯(lián)邦政府掏出上萬億美元去救助深陷泥潭的美國國際集團(tuán)( American Insurance Group,AIG),金融市場(chǎng)和共同基金產(chǎn)業(yè),難道這些錢不會(huì)打水漂?不過,我們要明白,政府救助的不僅僅是銀行業(yè),我們還在救助非銀行產(chǎn)業(yè)。那些持有大量銀行債務(wù),且在金融衍生品交易中作為銀行對(duì)手方的機(jī)構(gòu)同樣受益于我們的救助。如果我們沒有對(duì)銀行進(jìn)行救助,上述非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)可能會(huì)損失慘重。

????Hark. Do you hear it? That sound of ringing bells coming from the nation's capital as we enter the holiday season? Is it Salvation Army Santas taking to the street corners? Church campaniles playing "Carol of the Bells?" Or maybe angels getting their wings a la the Christmas classic It's a Wonderful Life?

????Nope. It's the ka-ching of K Street lobbyists ringing up the billable hours as they pile into the newest industry battle against financial reform. I am speaking of nascent efforts to regulate the multi-trillion dollar asset management industry. This war promises to be even bigger than the one megabanks have waged against the Volcker rule's proposed ban on speculative trading.

????The shot heard 'round the beltway was a seemingly innocuous report by a government research group called, appropriately, the Office of Financial Research or "OFR." The OFR was created by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law to -- among other things -- conduct and sponsor research related to "financial stability." That seems reasonable after the 2008 financial crisis nearly brought down the world economy.

????The OFR was asked by its parent agency, a group of major financial regulatory heads called the Financial Stability Oversight Council or "FSOC," to look at potential risks associated with asset managers. These entities -- which include mutual funds, private equity and hedge funds, as well as the asset management divisions of insurance companies and banks -- collectively control about $53 trillion of assets. Ten firms each individually control over $1 trillion in assets with the largest, by far, being BlackRock (BLK), which manages $4.1 trillion.

????While acknowledging the lack of complete data to conduct the analysis, the OFR report had, I thought, some useful observations about things asset managers do that are frighteningly similar to the kinds of things that banks did in the lead-up to the financial crisis. You know, things like excessive leverage (yes, a number of them do use significant leverage to enhance returns), taking big risks to reach for yield, mismatching assets and liabilities, and putting assets in separate accounts that are not transparent to regulators or their public investors.

????Was the report perfect? No. Is anything? But its primary purpose, as I understand it, was simply to help FSOC look outside of the regulated banking system to learn more about the business and activities of asset managers so it could determine if there were any risks that might threaten markets and the economy. That is what the FSOC and OFR are supposed to do.

????People love to beat up on the big banks (and I do my fair share), but believe it or not, they were not the root of all evil in 2008. Asset managers and insurance companies also created significant problems. As you will recall, taxpayers had to risk trillions in government support to bailout both the American Insurance Group, a.k.a. AIG (AIG), as well as the money market/mutual fund industry. What's more, it is important to understand that when we bailed out the banks, we also bailed out these nonbank institutions, as some were heavily invested in bank debt or were standing on the other side of bank derivatives trades. Without the bank bailouts, these nonbanks could have taken big losses.

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