????你敢對(duì)賭比特幣泡沫終將破裂嗎？

????當(dāng)然。但這將是一筆代價(jià)高昂的交易。而如果最終泡沫破裂，即使投資者能從中獲益，利潤(rùn)也不會(huì)太高。

????對(duì)賭的傳統(tǒng)方式是“做空”。要想進(jìn)行賣空交易，就必須先借入你要對(duì)賭的股票或債券或其他任何東西。而借入比特幣幾乎是不可能的。據(jù)稱香港一家公司正在測(cè)試提供比特幣做空交易，但筆者并未找到太多這方面的信息。

????投資者可以購(gòu)買衍生工具合約，等到比特幣價(jià)格下跌時(shí)，合約價(jià)值就會(huì)上漲。目前，有許多機(jī)構(gòu)推出了比特幣期權(quán)和期貨產(chǎn)品。

????其中一家機(jī)構(gòu)是莫斯科的比特幣交易所ICBIT。

????比特幣股權(quán)交易所MPEx也推出了比特幣期權(quán)。這家交易所為以比特幣交易股份的公司提供股權(quán)交易服務(wù)，目前共有四家這樣的公司。

????布魯克林交易處理商BitInstant正計(jì)劃在明年年初成立一家比特幣期權(quán)交易所。

????這些機(jī)構(gòu)均要求開立賬戶后才能進(jìn)行交易，而且都不接受美元。所以，你首先必須從其他地方購(gòu)買比特幣，然后將其轉(zhuǎn)入ICBIT或MPEx的賬戶后才能開始交易。而購(gòu)買比特幣本身就有很大難度。

????在MPEx開設(shè)賬戶要收費(fèi)30個(gè)比特幣，按照周三的收市價(jià)格，這相當(dāng)于33,000美元。

????好消息是，ICBIT可以免費(fèi)提供賬戶，但要收取交易傭金。而要想查看合約價(jià)格，投資者必須啟動(dòng)賬戶，并存入最低0.1個(gè)比特幣。（比特幣可以分割到小數(shù)購(gòu)買。）

????我決定從經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Coinbr展開調(diào)查。這家公司允許投資者在MPEx上交易期權(quán)，無需在MPEx開立賬戶。不過，如果要開始交易，仍需在Coinbr的賬戶中存入至少0.1個(gè)比特幣。好在MPEx允許任何人查看合約價(jià)格，所以在開始操作之前，你能比較清楚地了解情況。

????首先：既然投資者計(jì)劃做空比特幣，自然要買入看跌期權(quán)。所謂看跌期權(quán)是指允許投資者以預(yù)定價(jià)格賣出投資品的衍生工具合約。如果該投資品的實(shí)際價(jià)格下跌至預(yù)定價(jià)格或執(zhí)行價(jià)格以下，則投資者能夠獲利。

????投資者也可以賣出看漲期權(quán)（以預(yù)定價(jià)格購(gòu)買的權(quán)利），但這種操作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高，而且需要抵押。因此，筆者還是堅(jiān)持看跌期權(quán)。

????Can you bet on the likely eventual bitcoin crash?

????You bet. But it's an expensive trade. And even if you're right, you won't walk away with much, if anything.

????The traditional way you bet against something is to "short it." But in order to do a short sale you have to borrow a share of stock or bond or whatever you are looking to bet against. And borrowing bitcoins is nearly impossible. There is a company based in Hong Kong in testing phase that seems to offer bitcoin shorting, but I couldn't find out much about it.

????What you can buy is a derivative contract that will rise in value when bitcoins fall in price. There are a number of places that sell options and futures on bitcoins.

????One place -- ICBIT, a bitcoin exchange -- is run by a guy in Moscow.

????MPEx, a stock exchange for companies with shares traded in bitcoins -- there are four of them -- also lists bitcoin options.

????BitInstant, a Brooklyn-based payment processor, is planning on launching a bitcoin futures exchange early next year.

????All of these places require that you open an account to start trading, and none of them take dollars. So you have to buy some bitcoins elsewhere, which in itself is no easy task, and transfer them to your ICBIT or MPEx account before you can get started.

????MPEx charges 30 bitcoins to open an account, which at Wednesday's closing price was $33,000.

????I heard good things about ICBIT, which offered accounts for free but charges a commission when you trade. But to see the prices of the contracts, you had to get your account up and running and deposit a minimum of 0.1 bitcoins. (You can buy bitcoins in fractions.)

????I decided to check out Coinbr, a brokerage firm that allows you to trade options on MPEx without opening an account there. You still have to deposit 0.1 bitcoin in a Coinbr account to get started. But MPEx allows anyone to see the prices of its contracts, so you know what you are getting into before you start.

????Here we go: If you are betting against bitcoins, what you want to do is buy a put option, which is a derivative contract that allows you to sell something at a set price. If the actual price of the thing falls below the set price, or strike price, you make money.

????You could also sell a call option, the right to buy at a set price, but that is riskier and requires collateral. So I stuck to looking at put contracts.