成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)小幅削減購債,美股意外大漲三百點(diǎn)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)小幅削減購債,美股意外大漲三百點(diǎn)

Stephen Gandel 2013-12-19
投資者幾個(gè)月來一直擔(dān)心的事情在周三發(fā)生了,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)終于兌現(xiàn)承諾,把購債規(guī)模削減了100億美元。不過,出人意料的是,美國股市不僅沒有下跌,反而大漲了300點(diǎn)。個(gè)中有何蹊蹺。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(the Federal Reserve)削減購債規(guī)模的影響也許遠(yuǎn)沒有我們預(yù)計(jì)的那么糟糕。

????一年多以來,投資者一直在為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)著手終止經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃做著準(zhǔn)備。周三,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最終宣布小幅削減購債規(guī)模,那么股市到底下跌了多少呢?

????跌幅為零。

????相反,股指大幅上漲了近300點(diǎn),債券市場(chǎng)則略有下跌。這是怎么回事?

????實(shí)際情況表明,削減購債規(guī)模對(duì)股票和債券市場(chǎng)(甚至整體經(jīng)濟(jì))而言并沒有我們認(rèn)為的那么重要。

????對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)壓縮購債計(jì)劃,人們主要擔(dān)心它會(huì)導(dǎo)致利率上升。但無論怎樣,利率注定要上升。經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)利率水平就會(huì)提高。現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)正在改善,所以利率也在上漲。10年期美國國債收益率已從年初的2%左右逼近3%。目前尚不清楚這個(gè)上漲和削減購債規(guī)模有多大關(guān)系。

????更重要的是,利率上升似乎并未導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。上個(gè)月的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再次好于預(yù)期,目前的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)下降到7%,創(chuàng)下了五年來的新低。由此可見,利率上升并沒有延緩經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。

????到目前為止,削減購債的幅度很小。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)僅僅只是把購債的規(guī)模壓縮了100億美元。它意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購買債券的規(guī)模比我們的預(yù)期少了11%。當(dāng)然,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)很可能進(jìn)一步減少購債數(shù)額。但即便如此,這對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所持債券規(guī)模產(chǎn)生明顯影響還需要很長一段時(shí)間,預(yù)計(jì)這個(gè)數(shù)字本周會(huì)超過4萬億美元。

????人們一直在探討美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購債計(jì)劃中最重要的是什么?是存量,還是流動(dòng)性?或者說,是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持有的債券規(guī)模,還是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在購買的債券數(shù)額?最近,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家得出結(jié)論,流動(dòng)性比我們想象的更重要,但二者之間的差距也許沒那么大。

????接下來讓我們看看股市的表現(xiàn)。長期以來,一些策略分析師一直認(rèn)為,伯南克是股市持續(xù)上漲,或者至少上漲到目前水平的唯一原因。如果真是這樣,那么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布減少注資規(guī)模應(yīng)該會(huì)造成股市下跌,而不是上漲。

????至少,它表明股市的復(fù)蘇(乃至整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的關(guān)系并沒我們想象的那么密切。相反,股市上行似乎是得益于經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的好轉(zhuǎn),所以說到底,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇才是關(guān)鍵因素。與此相比,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否削減購債規(guī)模并不是那么重要。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Lina??

????The Federal Reserve's taper may turn out to be a lot less terrible than we thought.

????For more than a year, investors have been bracing for the beginning of the end of the Fed's stimulus program. So on Wednesday when the Fed finally announced it would pull back a little, how far did stocks fall?

????They didn't.

????Instead, they rose, a lot, by nearly 300 points. Bonds were down slightly. What gives?

????The taper, it turns out, for the stock and bond market -- and perhaps even the economy altogether -- matters a lot less than we thought.

????One of the main concerns about the Fed pulling back on its bond buying program is that it would cause interest rates to rise. But that was bound to happen anyway. Interest rates tend to rise when the economy improves. And the economy has been improving. So interest rates are up. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to just under 3% from around 2% at the beginning of the year. It's not clear how much that has to do with the taper.

????Even more important, that rise in interest rates doesn't seem to be slowing the economy. Last month's jobs report was once again better than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 7%, the lowest it has been in five years. So clearly higher interest rates are not spooking the economy.

????And the taper, at least so far, is tiny. The Fed is only reducing its bond buying program by $10 billion. That means the Fed will be buying 11% fewer bonds than we thought. Of course, the Fed is likely to pull back further. But even if they do, it will be a long time before that makes a big dent in the Fed's total bond holding, which is expected to cross $4 trillion this week.

????There has been a debate over what matters more in the Fed's bond buying program: the stock or the flow -- how much bonds the Fed has, or how much it is buying. Recently, economists have come to the conclusion that the flow matters more than we thought. But perhaps not that much more.

????And then there's stocks. Some strategists have long contended that the only reason the market has been going up, or at least going up as much as it has, is because been Ben Bernanke. If that was true, then the announcement that the Fed will be pumping a little less money into the market should have made stocks drop, not rise.

????What this says, at the very least, is that the recovery in the market, and perhaps the economy as a whole, has less to do with the Fed than we thought. Instead, it appears that the market is rising because the economy is improving, and in the end that's what matters. Compared to that, whether the Fed tapers or not just isn't nearly as important.

掃描二維碼下載財(cái)富APP
深夜放纵内射少妇| 最新国产麻豆福利在线观看| 国产99久久久国产精品| 国产精品无码无卡毛片不卡视| 亚洲精品在线视频| 91久久人澡人人添人人爽欧美| 亚洲欧美日韩国产成人精品影院| 亚洲av无码国产一级毛片久久国产精选精华精品| 亚洲精品偷拍视频免费观看| 欧美午夜福利一级高清一区二区| 久久国产AVJUST麻豆av天堂电影网| 国产一区二区精品九九| 国产精品国产三级欧美二区| 亚洲中文字幕无码永久免弗| 无码AⅤ精品影院亚洲AV无码成人专区片在线观看| 午夜激情经典印度女人性液| 婷婷开心色四房播播| 精品国精品无码自拍自在线| 被按摩的人妻中文字幕| 狠人精品人人妻久久久久久人人爽| 亚洲成AV人片一区二区三区| 激情无码专区在线观看| 久久无码精品一区二区三区| 久久精品国产亚洲a∨麻豆| 日本熟妇色XXXXX日本免费看| 亚洲中文久久精品无码97| 熟妇高潮精品一区二区三区| 亚洲国产日韩a在线播放| 日韩av片无码一区二区三区不卡| 国色天香社区视频手机版| 制服丝袜长腿无码专区第一页| 国产精品自在自线视频| 人妻中文字幕乱人伦在线| 99亚洲精品中文字幕无码不卡| 国产日韩欧美成人综合电影在线观看| 国产无码在线免费大片| 伊人久久中文字幕亚洲综合| 欧美成人性毛片视频| 午夜无码福利片国产播放| 婷婷久久综合九色综合97| 大陆少妇无码在线观看|