????6. 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)并購將增多：隨著全球化步伐的加快以及消費(fèi)者加速從固定網(wǎng)絡(luò)轉(zhuǎn)向移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，F(xiàn)acebook和Twitter等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨擘必須得更加靈活和貪婪，才能跟上行業(yè)發(fā)展的步伐。它們還得進(jìn)一步開發(fā)本公司已經(jīng)羽翼豐滿的“智能廣告網(wǎng)絡(luò)”，同時(shí)增強(qiáng)自身移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)的能力。我相信，這將使移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和廣告技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的并購數(shù)量在2014年大幅上升。我預(yù)計(jì)，網(wǎng)絡(luò)股將在2014年出現(xiàn)適度增長，原因是大型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)堅(jiān)實(shí)，可以進(jìn)行更多的收購。移動(dòng)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的出現(xiàn)將繼續(xù)讓消費(fèi)者的認(rèn)同度發(fā)生分化，特別是在十幾歲和二十幾歲這兩個(gè)年齡組。舉例來說，Snapchat、Vine、Nextdoor和Instagram等社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)已經(jīng)暴露出了Facebook和Twitter的弱點(diǎn)，特別是在面對年輕的移動(dòng)設(shè)備用戶的時(shí)候。移動(dòng)設(shè)備構(gòu)建的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)在便攜性方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過臺(tái)式機(jī)，這種情況讓所有大型社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司更容易受到?jīng)_擊。我為什么認(rèn)為并購對它們很重要？這就是原因之一。它們必須保持對移動(dòng)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)領(lǐng)域的控制。如果主要依靠內(nèi)生性增長策略，這些公司就無法做到這一點(diǎn)。2014年，專家們回顧Facebook對Instagram的收購時(shí)會(huì)認(rèn)為這是一項(xiàng)天才之舉，因?yàn)樗鼘⑦M(jìn)一步鼓勵(lì)其他大型社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司采取外生性增長策略。

????7. 比特幣將大行其道：我認(rèn)為，比特幣顯然將繼續(xù)增長，但也將出現(xiàn)極端的波動(dòng)性。Overstock.com等零售商會(huì)在更多的經(jīng)營網(wǎng)點(diǎn)使用比特幣。不過，銀行業(yè)和政府仍將存在一定分歧。這些機(jī)構(gòu)仍將無法正確認(rèn)識(shí)到比特幣帶來的真正機(jī)遇和威脅。比特幣有可能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治脫鉤。

????8. 2014年納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)將再次上漲：納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)年底可能收于4500點(diǎn)，但也可能更接近5000點(diǎn)，這是納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)在2000年創(chuàng)下的神奇紀(jì)錄。但同時(shí)，投資者們也會(huì)因此在自己的博客里大談“泡沫”問題。我認(rèn)為，關(guān)于泡沫的探討會(huì)讓投資者著迷，他們會(huì)不由自主地把2014年和1999年進(jìn)行比較；他們還會(huì)注意到，2014年正是科技行業(yè)首次進(jìn)入繁榮期15周年。以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克市場雖然有可能出現(xiàn)不安和波動(dòng)，但我認(rèn)為它的整體趨勢將繼續(xù)向上。個(gè)人投資者最終會(huì)重返這個(gè)市場，從中受益。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

作者簡介

????本文作者是硅谷風(fēng)投公司Norwest Venture Partners合伙人。他在哈佛商學(xué)院獲得了工商管理碩士學(xué)位，在斯坦福大學(xué)獲得了管理科學(xué)和工程（工業(yè)工程）理學(xué)學(xué)士學(xué)位。

????譯者：Charlie

????6. Internet M&A deals will rise: As a result of an accelerated trend toward globalization and shifts from web to mobile consumption, most Internet giants including Facebook and Twitter (TWTR) will have to become much more agile and acquisitive to keep pace. They will also need to further develop their own full-fledged "smart ad network" and enhance mobile capabilities. I believe this will result in a spike in more mobile and adtech M&A in 2014. I predict Internet stocks will be up reasonably high in 2014, giving the Internet giants' solid ground from which to make more acquisitions. The emergence of mobile social networks will continue to fragment mind share, especially in the teen and tween demographic. For example, Snapchat, Vine, Nextdoor, and Instagram are examples of mobile social networks that have shown Facebook's and Twitter's vulnerability, especially when it comes to young mobile users. The fact that the social graph is much more "transportable" on the mobile device than on the PC makes all social incumbents more vulnerable. This is one reason why I think M&A is important for them; they must maintain control of the social mobile world, and they cannot do this relying largely on an organic growth strategy. In 2014, the experts will look back at Instagram's acquisition by Facebook as a genius move that will further embolden other large social properties to step up inorganic growth strategies.

????7. Bitcoin will thrive: I think it's evident that Bitcoin will continue to rise, but will also show extreme volatility. Adoption by outlets such as Overstock.com and other retailers will continue to grow. However, the banking industry and governments will remain somewhat split. These institutions will continue to misunderstand the real opportunities and threats this crypto currency provides. Bitcoin has the opportunity to decouple the economic world from the political world.

????8. NASDAQ Index will rise again in 2014: The NASDAQ index could end the year at 4,500, but may even get close to the magical 5,000 mark set at the peak of 2000. This will create a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a "Bubble." I predict that investors will get captivated by the bubble chatter and will obsessively compare 2014 with 1999 and note that this is the 15th year anniversary of the first tech boom. While there may be anxiety and volatility in the tech-heavy NASDAQ, I think the overall upward trend should continue. The retail investor will finally come back to the market and benefit.

About the Author

????Sergio Monsalve is a partner at Norwest Venture Partners. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a bachelor of science degree in management sciences and engineering (industrial engineering) from Stanford University.