????1986年1月，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）投資策略分析師拜倫?維恩提出了來年的十大“意外”事件?，F(xiàn)在，雖然已經(jīng)成為黑石集團（Blackstone Group）咨詢業(yè)務(wù)副董事長，他依然在堅持進行這樣的預(yù)測。

????維恩對“意外”事件的定義是，普通投資者認為它們發(fā)生的可能性只有三分之一，而他相信這些事件很有可能出現(xiàn)（也就是說，可能性超過50%）。下面就是他列出的2014年十大“意外”事件。

????1. 套用狄更斯的說法，這是最好的市場，也是最壞的市場。最壞的局面將首先出現(xiàn)——地緣政治問題和極度樂觀情緒將讓美國市場出現(xiàn)10%以上的大幅度回調(diào)。隨后將是最好的局面，美國市場將創(chuàng)下新高。到年底，標普500指數(shù)（Standard & Poor's 500）的總回報率將達到20%。

????2. 美國經(jīng)濟將最終走出低谷。增長率將超過3%，失業(yè)率將向6%滑落。實際情況將表明，美聯(lián)儲（Fed）削減資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模無礙大局。

????3. 美國經(jīng)濟強于歐洲，日本將提高美元匯率。歐元/美元匯率將跌至1.25以下，美元/日元匯率將達到120。

????4. 迪克?切尼說出現(xiàn)赤字沒有關(guān)系。各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人中只有安倍晉三認識到切尼是對的。安倍將繼續(xù)積極進行財政和貨幣擴張，年初日經(jīng)225指數(shù)（Nikkei 225）將升至18000點。但銷售稅的增長、人口老齡化以及勞動力不斷減少最終將帶來不利影響，下半年日本市場將暴跌（20%）。

????5. 三中全會提出中國要向內(nèi)需型經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)變，同時降低對投資的依賴，這將使2014年中國經(jīng)濟增長率降至6%。A股市場在這一年的表現(xiàn)將再次讓人感到失望。新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子會強調(diào)，他們的方針政策最符合中國的長遠利益。

????6. 實際情況將繼續(xù)表明，新興市場投資變化無常。在墨西哥和韓國，強有力的政府和增長性政策將帶動當?shù)毓墒写蠓蠞q，但其他新興市場將無法趕上墨西哥和韓國的腳步。

????7. 盡管美國石油產(chǎn)量上升，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（West Texas Intermediate）的價格仍將超過110美元。和發(fā)達國家保守并且下降的石油消費量相比，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的需求所產(chǎn)生的影響將繼續(xù)超過前者。

????8. 生活水平提高以及新興市場更多地以消費者為導(dǎo)向?qū)⑴まD(zhuǎn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格下跌的局面。玉米、小麥和大豆的價格將分別達到5.25美元/蒲式耳、7.50美元/蒲式耳和16.00美元/蒲式耳。

????9. 美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)強勁，再加上通脹水平有所提高，將使美國10年期國債收益率升至4.0%。短期利率將保持在零點附近。中期收益率上升將給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)帶來不利影響，但對美元來說是個有利因素。

????In January 1986, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Byron Wien published a list of 10 "surprises" for the upcoming year. He is now vice chairman of The Blackstone Group's (BX) advisory practice, but is still making predictions.

????For Wien,"surprises" are events that the average investor would only assign a one-out-of-three chance of taking place, but which he believes are "probable" (i.e., having a better than 50% likelihood of happening). What follows is his list of surprises for 2014.

????1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) approaches a 20% total return by year end.

????2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.

????3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.

????4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don't matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population, and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.

????5. China's Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.

????6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.

????7. In spite of increased U.S. production, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.

????8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.

????9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.