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巴西全力避免經(jīng)濟陷阱

巴西全力避免經(jīng)濟陷阱

Amy Kaslow 2014-01-17
近些年來,巴西經(jīng)濟增長迅速,甚至有人評價稱,它用20年的時間走完了美國花了200年才走過的發(fā)展道路。但巴西經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展速度遠遠超過了合格技術(shù)工人的培養(yǎng)和供應(yīng)速度。要維持目前的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展勢頭,它必須竭盡全力避開這個陷阱。

????國際能源機構(gòu)( International Energy Agency )預(yù)測稱,巴西的石油產(chǎn)量在未來20年將增加兩倍,增至日產(chǎn)600萬桶,從而成為世界第六大原油生產(chǎn)商。要實現(xiàn)如此樂觀的前景,需要巴西在未來5年內(nèi)投入數(shù)千億美元開發(fā)油田和煉油廠。如果沒有開發(fā)這些項目所需的勞動力,這一幕根本無從實現(xiàn)。

????人力資源服務(wù)公司萬寶盛華( Manpower)2013年的一項調(diào)查顯示,巴西是全球第二大最缺乏技術(shù)工人的國家。68%的巴西雇主聲稱,他們面臨人才短缺問題,嚴重程度僅次于日本(85%)。汽車制造商,建筑公司和能源企業(yè)越來越依賴其他國家的工人(巴西與9個國家接壤)。過去5年來,巴西勞工部頒發(fā)的外國技術(shù)工人臨時工作簽證一直在穩(wěn)步增長。

????為了應(yīng)對不斷累積的人才短缺壓力,巴西總統(tǒng)迪爾瑪?羅塞夫已經(jīng)設(shè)定了提升合格工人數(shù)量的目標(biāo),以推動雇主和州及地方政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就預(yù)測和協(xié)調(diào)各自的勞動力需求展開合作。

????就伯南布哥州(巴西增長最快的州之一)而言,這項戰(zhàn)略看上去很有前景。巴西首屈一指的醫(yī)藥研究企業(yè)諾華公司(Novartis)在這個州建造的南美首家生物制藥廠將于2017年正式投產(chǎn),這家公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始為這家工廠吸引和培訓(xùn)工人。諾華生物制藥公司(Novartis Biociencias S.A.)巴西法律事務(wù)主管伊莎貝拉?馬西埃爾?德薩說,我們知道,如果不盡早著手,“我們就招不到人才了?!边@家公司將斥資數(shù)百萬美元,與州政府和聯(lián)邦大學(xué)(Federal University,巴西頂尖大學(xué)之一)合作開發(fā)一個專業(yè)課程在線學(xué)習(xí)平臺以及一個面向巴西殘障人士的學(xué)習(xí)管道,培訓(xùn)能夠勝任實驗室、生物安全和呼叫中心工作的合格工人。

????此外,羅塞夫還抱定決心要擊退地方主義,并為只會說葡萄牙語的國民打破就業(yè)障礙。她打算在2015年之前派遣10.1萬名巴西學(xué)生赴英語國家學(xué)習(xí)科學(xué)和數(shù)學(xué)(只有5%的巴西人講英語,政府把英語視為有競爭力的勞動力必須具備的能力之一)。羅塞夫特意選擇安德拉德幫助政府尋求外部幫助。安德拉德在總部位于丹佛的非政府組織“美國巴西連接中心”(U.S.-Brazil Connect)的幫助下已經(jīng)與數(shù)家美國社區(qū)學(xué)院結(jié)成合作關(guān)系,其中包括得克薩斯州的休斯敦社區(qū)學(xué)院(Houston Community College)、科羅拉多州的紅巖社區(qū)學(xué)院(Rock Community College)和密歇根州的杰克遜社區(qū)學(xué)院(Jackson Community College)等。這些學(xué)院開設(shè)的以拓寬就業(yè)渠道為宗旨的英語培訓(xùn)項目對巴西年輕人頗具吸引力。

????17歲的韋斯利?梅洛就是其中一位。這位來自薩爾瓦多市(位于巴西東北部的巴伊亞州)的年輕人去年秋天在科羅拉多州參觀了幾所學(xué)校。梅洛說:“這個計劃的真實意圖在于,讓學(xué)生沉浸在英語環(huán)境之中,然后回巴西工作,幫助祖國發(fā)展壯大?!彼诎鸵羴喼莨プx一個為期兩年的機電一體化學(xué)位。他說,將來回國后,“應(yīng)該能夠很容易找到一份工作。巴西需要大量的技術(shù)、工業(yè)自動化,以及具備許多其他技能的人才。”

????但梅洛并不確定他能在巴西待足夠長的時間,以“幫助這個國家改變。”他說,他受夠了幾乎每天都會碰到的安全和公共交通難題?!拔易≡诰嚯x技校大約10分鐘車程的地方,學(xué)校在馬路邊,附近有一個貧民窟,”梅洛說。他要花兩個小時才能到家?!敖?jīng)過的公交車實在太擁擠了,還經(jīng)常嚴重誤點。有一回等車時,我還被一幫暴徒搶走了背包。我的化學(xué)書就是在那里弄丟的。”

????梅洛爭辯說,要是公共交通能更好一些,小偷也不至于如此猖狂。要是窮人沒有被排擠得這么厲害,犯罪現(xiàn)象就會少得多。

????薩爾瓦多的地鐵系統(tǒng)堪稱巴西政府轉(zhuǎn)移財政支出重點的象征。自1997年以來,這套地鐵系統(tǒng)的建設(shè)一直停滯不前,目前只是一些不知通往何處的混凝土柱和銹跡斑斑的鐵軌。

????巴西政府承諾要趕在世界杯開幕前及時改善公共交通系統(tǒng)。近幾個月以來,出于對政府斥巨資建造體育場館、接待中心和其他服務(wù)于賽事的公共設(shè)施的強烈不滿,已有上百萬巴西人走上街頭,舉行聲勢浩大的抗議活動。他們聲稱,這些投入轉(zhuǎn)移了政府對鋪面道路、郵件傳送和飲用水等方面的投資資金。

????梅洛說,這些服務(wù)對于數(shù)量迅速增長、生活在貧民窟或棚戶區(qū)、缺乏熟練技術(shù)的下層階級來說依然遙不可及。正在抗議的不僅僅是窮人和年輕人,“如果我媽媽同意我去,我也會去參加這些示威活動?!?/p>

????

????The International Energy Agency forecasts Brazil will triple its oil output in the next 20 years, with 6 million barrels per day, to become the sixth largest producer in the world. This optimistic outlook requires hundreds of billions of dollars to develop fields and refineries in the next five years. This cannot happen without the workforce to develop it.

????Brazil ranks second among the world's nations suffering from acute skills shortages, according to a 2013 survey by Manpower. Sixty-eight percent of the nation's employers reported that they have a talent problem, just behind Japan's 85%. Bordering nine countries, Brazil's automakers, construction firms, and energy concerns are increasingly reliant on workers from other countries. For the past five years, Brazil's Ministry of Labor has steadily increased temporary work visas for foreign technical workers.

????Responding to mounting pressures, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff has set goals to boost the number of work-ready Brazilians, pushing both employers and local and state leaders to collaborate to anticipate and coordinate their staffing needs.

????The strategy looks promising for Pernambuco, one of Brazil's fastest growing states. Brazil's leading pharmaceutical research firm, Novartis, will open the continent's first biotech plant there in 2017 and it's already scrambling to attract and train the workers to staff it. Short of this early and sustained effort, says Isabella Maciel de Sa, country legal head at Novartis Biociencias S.A., "we know we would not find the talent." Along with the state government and Federal University [one of Brazil's top universities], the company is developing a million-dollar online platform of specialized courses and a pipeline for the Brazil's disabled population to train for work in labs, biosecurity, and call centers.

????Intent on beating back provincialism and breaking barriers for Portuguese-only speakers, Rousseff has also set a 2015 deadline for sending 101,000 Brazilian students abroad to study science and math in English (only 5% of Brazilians speak the language, which the government has deemed necessary for a competitive workforce). Rousseff tapped Andrade to advance the government's hunt for outside help. Working with Denver-based U.S.-Brazil Connect, Andrade has teamed up with U.S. community colleges -- including Texas' Houston Community College, Colorado's Red Rock Community College, and Michigan's Jackson Community College, where expanding career-based and English proficiency programs attract young Brazilians.

????Among them is Wesley Melo, a 17-year-old from Salvador, in the northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia, who visited Colorado schools this past fall. "The real idea of the program is to send students to get immersion and then to return to Brazil and work in industry and help the country to grow," says Melo, who is pursuing a two-year mechatronics (mechanical and electronics) degree in Bahia. Back home, he says, "it should be easy to get a job…. In Brazil, we need technical, industrial automation, and so many other skills."

????But Melo is not sure he'll stay in Brazil long enough to "help the country change." He says he is fed up with the daily safety and public transportation difficulties. "I live about 10 minutes from technical school, which is on a road near a favela," says Melo. It takes him two hours to get home. "The busses pass and they are really crowded. And there are big delays. Waiting for the bus, I was robbed by thugs who took my backpack. My chemistry book was in there."

????Melo contends that if there were better public transportation, he would not have been so vulnerable to thieves. And if the poor were not so marginalized, there would be less crime.

????Emblematic of the Brazilian government's shifting fiscal priorities, Salvador's subway system, under construction and stalled since 1997, offers concrete pillars to nowhere and rusting rails.

????The government promises to improve mobility in time for the World Cup. Upward of a million Brazilian protestors have taken to the streets in recent months, seething over the government's commitment to build stadiums, hospitality centers, and an array of other public facilities for the games, which, they contend, diverts investments for paved roads, mail delivery, and potable water.

????Melo says that basics remain out of reach for the burgeoning unskilled underclass living in favelas, or shantytowns. It's not just the poor or the young who are demonstrating, he says: "If my mother had let me go, I would have joined the demonstrations."?????????

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