????末日博士又回來了。

????因為準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂和金融危機而名滿天下的紐約大學(xué)(New York University)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家努里爾?魯比尼上周五表示，2014年將是美國經(jīng)濟另一個令人失望的年份。與幾年前相比，魯比尼其實對美國經(jīng)濟更加樂觀了一些。但隨著經(jīng)濟前景有所改善，再加上華盛頓的政治僵持出現(xiàn)一定程度緩和，其他經(jīng)濟學(xué)家紛紛上調(diào)了他們的經(jīng)濟預(yù)測值。

????因此，魯比尼認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟學(xué)界的共識再次超前。

????相反，這位紐約大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟增速將回升，但還是不足以提升美國普通工人的收入。這種情況將限制美國人購物和償債的能力，而經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)增長恰恰需要這兩方面來維系。與此同時，企業(yè)盈利正在放緩。雖然股票還沒有泡沫，但魯比尼認(rèn)為目前的股價看起來有些昂貴。他還認(rèn)為，日益增長的能源供應(yīng)在2014年對美國經(jīng)濟的推動或許不如很多人認(rèn)為的那么大。

????“現(xiàn)在的問題是，我們是否已經(jīng)踏上了脫離泡沫的可持續(xù)增長軌道，”魯比尼說?！按鸢甘?，還沒有?！?/p>

????上周五，在時代公司(Time Inc)主辦的一場早餐會上，魯比尼發(fā)表了這番見解。歐亞集團 (Eurasia Group)的伊恩?布雷默也參加了這場由《時代》周刊(Time)財經(jīng)編輯拉娜?弗魯哈爾主持的早餐會談。

????布雷默也認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)測過于超前。但他指出，2014年的主要風(fēng)險將來自政治領(lǐng)域，而非經(jīng)濟。他最擔(dān)憂事情的是，奧巴馬在第二任期的外交政策議程似乎不那么雄心勃勃。他說，愛德華?斯諾登曝光的美國政府監(jiān)控計劃已經(jīng)傷害了美國的海外形象。“其他國家或許不愛我們充當(dāng)世界警察，”布雷默說。“但他們的確非常不喜歡我們成為世界的私家偵探?！?/p>

????布雷默認(rèn)為，這起事件的負(fù)面印象將減少美國公司的海外機會。最重要的是，包括巴西在內(nèi)的許多新興市場國家將在今年舉行大選。他說，這一點可能會導(dǎo)致比以往更大的政治動蕩。

????魯比尼與布雷默對中國經(jīng)濟的前景持不同意見。布雷默認(rèn)為，中國或許將馴服金融部門?！皶粫秀y行倒閉？會，”布雷默說?！爸袊苏幵诒仨毜锰舫鲒A家和輸家的時點。這將導(dǎo)致不穩(wěn)定?！?/p>

????魯比尼則認(rèn)為，出于對增長前景的擔(dān)憂，中國在未來幾年很可能會推遲經(jīng)濟改革?！爸袊?jīng)濟今年不會硬著陸，”魯比尼說。“但中國經(jīng)濟增長的50%來自政府推動，這是不可持續(xù)的?！?/p>

????中國的問題或許會對美國產(chǎn)生正面影響。布雷默說，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將再次把經(jīng)濟增長的希望寄托在美國身上。他認(rèn)為，這將促使中國加大在美國的投資。

????Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who is famous for having predicted the housing bust and financial crisis, said on Friday that 2014 will be another disappointing year for the U.S. economy. Roubini is actually a bit more optimistic about the U.S. than he has been in previous years. But as the outlook has improved, and the stagnation in Washington has lessened a bit, other economists have upped their economic prognoses.

????As a result, Roubini once again thinks the consensus has gotten ahead of itself.

????Instead, the NYU economist says growth will pick up, but not enough to produce raises for average American workers. That will limit Americans' ability to shop and pay down debt, two things the economy needs for sustained growth. At the same time, corporate earnings are slowing. And while stocks aren't in a bubble, Roubini says they now look expensive. What's more, he says the U.S. may not get as much of a boost from its growing energy supply in 2014 as many think.

????"The question is whether we have gotten to sustainable growth that is not based on bubbles," says Roubini. "Not yet."

????Roubini made his comments at a breakfast event hosted on Friday by Time Inc. The conversation, which also included the Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer, was moderated by Time's Rana Foroohar (who had her own take on the discussion).

????Bremmer agreed that economists have gotten ahead of themselves. But he says the main risks in 2014 will be political, not economic. His biggest concern is that the Obama Administration's foreign policy agenda appears to be less ambitious in the president's second term. And he says the revelations from Edward Snowden have hurt the U.S. overseas. "Other countries don't love us being the world's cop," says Bremmer. "But they really don't like us being the world's private eye."

????Bremmer thinks the fallout will lead to fewer opportunities for U.S. companies abroad. On top of that, Bremmer noted that many emerging market countries wild hold elections this year, includingBrazil. He says that could lead to more political instability than usual.

????Roubini and Bremmer differed on China. Bremmer believes China will likely rein in its financial sector. "Will there be banks that go bankrupt? Yes," says Bremmer. "The Chinese are at the point where they are ready to pick winners and losers. That will cause instability."

????Roubini, on the other hand, thinks that China, worried about growth, is likely to put off economic reform for another few years. "We won't see a hard landing this year," says Roubini. "But 50% of China's economic growth comes from the government. That's not sustainable."

????Problems in China may offer an upside to the U.S. Bremmer says Chinese leaders are once again looking to the U.S. for growth. He thinks that will lead to more Chinese investment in the States.