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印度經(jīng)濟(jì)為什么陷入困境

印度經(jīng)濟(jì)為什么陷入困境

Sanjay Sanghoee 2014-02-13
印度央行最近將印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題歸咎于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ),但這個(gè)國(guó)家自己其實(shí)應(yīng)該承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任。它面臨的挑戰(zhàn)遠(yuǎn)不止貨幣政策這么簡(jiǎn)單。印度必須解決好腐敗問(wèn)題,投資國(guó)內(nèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,提高勞動(dòng)力利用率,才能充分釋放經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?jié)摿Α?

????繼新興市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩的憂(yōu)慮引發(fā)全球性股市拋盤(pán)后,印度央行總裁拉吉拉姆?拉詹日前指責(zé)堅(jiān)持執(zhí)行縮減月度債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃的美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)?!皣?guó)際貨幣政策合作已經(jīng)瓦解,”拉詹表示,并且補(bǔ)充說(shuō),“美國(guó)應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮它的政策對(duì)全世界其他地區(qū)產(chǎn)生的影響?!?/p>

????拉詹后來(lái)改口, 但他此番言論凸顯了印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的脆弱性。理論上,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“逐步縮減”債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)量,加上投資者預(yù)期利率上漲將導(dǎo)致資本逃離印度,流往美國(guó)。由于海外擁有更高的投資回報(bào),投資者對(duì)印度盧比的需求將出現(xiàn)下降,進(jìn)一步壓低盧比和推升通脹。實(shí)際上,印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率在2013年已經(jīng)下降到了4.5%,低于過(guò)去10年的平均值9%;通脹率已經(jīng)高達(dá)9.9%。如果印度央行必須通過(guò)繼續(xù)加息來(lái)支撐盧比,只會(huì)進(jìn)一步損傷印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)步伐。

????不過(guò),這樣的兩難境地也是印度自己一手締造的。

????雖然印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)一直很強(qiáng)勁,但它的全國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施嚴(yán)重落后。道路坑坑洼洼、交通堵塞不堪、公共交通服務(wù)糟糕,供水供電缺乏穩(wěn)定,此外,教育標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不斷下降【微軟(Microsoft)新任CEO薩蒂亞納德拉是個(gè)例外,并非常態(tài)】,印度的國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)并沒(méi)有跟上私營(yíng)部門(mén)的發(fā)展步伐。

????部分原因是因?yàn)槿丝谶^(guò)多和資源緊張,其余則是因?yàn)楣埠退綘I(yíng)部門(mén)對(duì)發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施缺乏興趣。電信和信息科技等行業(yè)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但這些增長(zhǎng)只能讓印度人口中的一小部分人獲益,大部分人仍身處貧困和農(nóng)村被遺忘的角落。(印度的人均收入在金磚四國(guó)中最低。而且四分之三的農(nóng)村人口生活在貧困中。)

????中國(guó)的人均收入沒(méi)有高出太多,但中國(guó)的小城鎮(zhèn)已經(jīng)變成欣欣向榮的制造樞紐,使得中國(guó)能夠最大化地利用自己的資源和勞動(dòng)力。(中國(guó)制造業(yè)最近的收縮是由于信貸市場(chǎng)收緊造成的,并不是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)策略變化的征兆。缺乏這樣一些關(guān)鍵的投資,印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)受到阻礙。

????談到通脹,印度的高速增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)造成物價(jià)飆升,但由于財(cái)富集中在非常少數(shù)的一些人手中,普通印度人無(wú)法承擔(dān)物價(jià)的上漲。作為對(duì)策,印度央行調(diào)高了利率,但這只會(huì)降低對(duì)所有經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的推動(dòng)力。借貸成本的上升會(huì)侵蝕企業(yè)利潤(rùn)率,但不能遏制通脹,只要另外一個(gè)源頭,也就是腐敗,仍在推高物價(jià)。

????去年,印度在透明國(guó)際(Transparency International)清廉指數(shù)(Corruption Perception Index)調(diào)查的176個(gè)國(guó)家中排名第94位。一個(gè)更大的問(wèn)題是雖然商界對(duì)于政府的腐敗行為怨聲載道,但他們?nèi)匀辉敢饨柚V賂繞過(guò)法律,結(jié)果導(dǎo)致腐敗狀況進(jìn)一步惡化。涉及電信、建筑、煤礦和其他行業(yè)大公司的腐敗丑聞司空見(jiàn)慣。畢馬威(KPMG)2011年進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究顯示,至少在某種程度上,私營(yíng)部門(mén)實(shí)際上引起了印度的腐敗。

????結(jié)果是貪腐文化甚至影響到了基本的政府服務(wù),增加了商業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)成本。這種情況抬高了所有東西的價(jià)格,包括制成品、服務(wù)、電力、水和電話(huà)服務(wù),造成了事實(shí)上的通脹。它也阻礙了外國(guó)投資,特別是來(lái)自美國(guó)和歐洲的機(jī)構(gòu)投資。這些機(jī)構(gòu)不喜賄賂,擔(dān)心會(huì)違反本國(guó)的反腐敗法。所有這些都給印度盧比帶來(lái)了更大的壓力。

????如果考慮到現(xiàn)在被抑制的需求,印度經(jīng)濟(jì)肯定還會(huì)保持增長(zhǎng),印度公司也將繼續(xù)在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)出擊,但如果拉詹想在抑制通脹的同時(shí)將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最大化,印度政府就必須解決好腐敗問(wèn)題,投資國(guó)內(nèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,提高勞動(dòng)力利用率。不論是印度、還是美國(guó),單憑貨幣政策并不能解決這些問(wèn)題。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????本文作者是一位政治和商業(yè)評(píng)論家。他曾在知名投行Lazard Freres和Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein就職,并曾服務(wù)于對(duì)沖基金Ramius。他現(xiàn)任中型市場(chǎng)電臺(tái)運(yùn)營(yíng)商Board of Davidson Media Group的董事,擁有哥倫比亞商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位。他還是兩本驚悚小說(shuō)的作者。

????In the wake of a global stock market selloff driven by worries over slower growth in emerging markets, the head of India's central bank, Raghuram Rajan, criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve as it pressed on with plans to dial back its monthly bond purchases: "International monetary cooperation has broken down," said Rajan, who added that "the U.S. should worry about the effects of its polices on the rest of the world."

????Rajan later backtracked, but his remarks highlight the vulnerabilities of India's economy. Theoretically, the Fed's taper, and investors' expectations of a rise in interest rates would cause capital to leave India for the U.S. With higher returns available abroad, investors' demand for India's rupee would fall, further weakening the currency and raising inflation. Already, India's economic growth has declined to 4.5% in 2013 from an average of 9% over the past decade; inflation is high at 9.9%. If India's central bank has to keep raising interest rates to prop up the rupee, it could further impair the nation's economic progress.

????India's Catch-22, however, is of its own making.

????While economic growth has been robust, its national infrastructure is severely underdeveloped. From crumbling roads, traffic congestion, and poor public transportation to unreliable electricity and water supply and declining educational standards (Microsoft's new CEO Satya Nadella being the exception, not the norm), India's national foundation has failed to keep pace with the financial prosperity of its private sector.

????Part of this is due to overpopulation and a strain on resources, but the rest is due to a lack of interest both in public and private spheres for developing infrastructure. Industries such as telecommunications and information technology continue to grow, but the benefits of that growth accrue to a small subset of the population, leaving the bulk of the country in poverty and rural limbo. (India's per capita income is the lowest of the BRICs nations. and three out of four people in rural areas live in poverty.)

????China's income per capita isn't that much better, but its small towns have become thriving manufacturing hubs that have allowed the country to maximize the use of its resources and labor force. (The recent contraction in Chinese manufacturing is the result of a tightening in credit markets, not an indictment of the country's growth strategy). Without such critical investments, India's long-term growth could be jeopardized.

????As for inflation, India's rapid growth has caused prices to soar, but since that wealth is concentrated in very few hands, average Indians cannot afford the higher prices. In response, the central bank has raised interest rates, but that will only lower the tide for all boats. Higher borrowing costs hurt business profitability but won't stop inflation as long as price hikes are also being fueled by another source: corruption.

????Last year, India ranked 94th out of 176 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. An even bigger problem is that while the business community complains bitterly about government corruption, it also exacerbates it through its willingness to pay bribes to bypass the law. Large corruption scandals involving major companies in telecommunications, construction, coal mining, and other industries are commonplace, and a 2011 study conducted by KPMG suggests that the private sector actually induces corruption in India, at least to some degree.

????The result is a culture of venality that affects even basic government services and increases the cost of doing business. This raises the price of everything, including produced goods, services, electricity, water, and telephone service to create de facto inflation. It also discourages foreign investment, especially from institutions in the U.S. and Europe, who dislike paying bribes and worry about violating anti-corruption laws in their home country. All this, in turn, puts even more pressure on the currency.

????The Indian economy will certainly keep growing, if for no other reason than pent-up demand, and Indian companies will continue to compete aggressively on the world stage, but if Rajan wants to curtail inflation and maximize that growth at the same time, then his government must address the problem of corruption properly, invest in the infrastructure of the nation, and expand the utilization of its workforce. Monetary policy alone -- in India or in the U.S. -- cannot solve these problems.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. Sanghoee sits on the Board of Davidson Media Group, a mid-market radio station operator and has an MBA from Columbia Business School. He is also the author of two thriller novels.

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