????信不信由你，就在其他方面的通脹壓力不斷堆積的時(shí)候，大宗商品價(jià)格正在向上突破。不相信？看看金價(jià)吧。今年初以來，金價(jià)漲幅已經(jīng)超過了7%，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）則下跌了1.5%。同時(shí)，路透商品研究局（CRB）商品價(jià)格指數(shù)年初以來已經(jīng)上漲了4%。

????眼下的情況讓人心神不寧，但跟通縮沒什么關(guān)系。

????如果美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）主席詹尼特?耶倫決定將削減購債規(guī)模的計(jì)劃倒轉(zhuǎn)過來以便“拯救”股市，由此產(chǎn)生的影響可能造成美元匯率下跌，同時(shí)促使投資者追逐收益率，由此可能導(dǎo)致抗通脹資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格上升，引發(fā)新一輪降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度的大宗商品價(jià)格上漲。

????2011-2012年見頂后，大宗商品價(jià)格在2013年跌入低谷。受去年價(jià)格下跌影響，階段性比較變得特別敏感，因此大宗商品價(jià)格的小幅上升看起來就是同比增長。但它只是一個(gè)表面現(xiàn)象，而非實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢。但制定政策的依據(jù)以及市場陷入恐慌的原因就是表面情況如何，而不是它實(shí)際表現(xiàn)如何。

????投資研究機(jī)構(gòu)Hedgeye首席執(zhí)行官基思?麥卡洛認(rèn)為，我們不太可能看到2011-2012年那樣的真正通脹（當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲并沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)物價(jià)在上漲的情況）。但隨著人們意識到大宗商品價(jià)格上漲以及與之相伴的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩和股價(jià)下跌，就會有人懷疑美聯(lián)儲將再次放松政策，以便為正在失去動(dòng)力的經(jīng)濟(jì)提供支持。如果耶倫在壓縮購債規(guī)模方面開倒車，股市可能會短暫上行。但美元將在全球范圍內(nèi)下跌，進(jìn)而造成通脹率以更快的速度上升。

????美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬下令提高工資之前，工資上漲的速度就已經(jīng)在逐步加快。儲蓄率向著歷史最低點(diǎn)下滑，消費(fèi)再次取代了儲蓄。2013年第三季度，美國居民總負(fù)債出現(xiàn)了18個(gè)季度以來的首次正增長。居民去杠桿化延續(xù)了5年后，再次出現(xiàn)了以信貸為動(dòng)力的消費(fèi)增長。如果消費(fèi)者因?yàn)橘I漲不買跌而開始擔(dān)心通脹，過度消費(fèi)現(xiàn)象就可能加劇。

????通脹可能造成股市估值水平下降，而這和大多數(shù)華爾街策略分析師的預(yù)期正好相反。去年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通脹上升的速度雙雙加快，樂觀的投資者因此賦予股市較高的市盈率，物價(jià)也因此上漲?，F(xiàn)在，大宗商品價(jià)格上漲的速度正在加快，但美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長出現(xiàn)了放緩跡象。這種趨勢不是什么好事，這種局面也不容易對付，而且政界沒有誰希望聽到別人說政策方面最好的方案就是按兵不動(dòng)，靜待這個(gè)階段走到盡頭。因?yàn)檫@樣會增加美聯(lián)儲采取其他補(bǔ)救措施的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????由于華爾街的預(yù)期過于樂觀，投資者并沒有為經(jīng)濟(jì)減速和股票估值水平下降做好準(zhǔn)備。麥卡洛說，大宗商品價(jià)格似乎跑在了美聯(lián)儲政策的前面——如果耶倫倒轉(zhuǎn)壓縮購債規(guī)模的政策，針對通脹的投資就可能激增。隨著股市下跌，CRB商品價(jià)格指數(shù)等廣義通脹指標(biāo)的最低點(diǎn)正在不斷上升。

????Believe it or not, commodity prices are breaking out right now as other inflationary pressures continue to build. Don't believe it? Take a look at gold prices. They have already risen over 7% year-to-date as the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 1.5%. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is up 4% year-to-date.

????Something is stirring here, and it doesn't have the whiff of deflation.

????If U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen decides to "rescue" equity markets by reversing the central bank's plans to scale down its bond purchases, the impact could knock down the U.S. Dollar and trigger investors to chase yield, which would drive up inflation hedge assets and likely spark another round of growth-slowing commodity inflation.

????After peaking in 2011-2012, commodity prices cratered in 2013. Because of last year's price declines, period-to-period comparisons are especially sensitive, so even a moderate commodity price increase looks inflationary year over year. This is an optical effect, not yet an economic reality. But policy -- and market panics -- are made in response to how things appear, not how things actually are.

????Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says we are unlikely to see 2011-2012 style actual inflation (which the Fed did not see at the time). But, as people perceive the rise in commodity prices alongside decelerating growth and declining stock prices, there will be speculation that the Fed will again loosen policy to support flagging growth. If Yellen reverses plans to scale down the Fed's bond purchases, a process dubbed, "tapering," your stocks will lift temporarily. But globally the dollar will suffer, causing inflation to rise faster.

????Wage inflation was rising at the margin even before President Obama ordered wage increases. Savings rates are declining toward historic lows as consumption is again displacing savings. During the third quarter of 2013, aggregate household debt growth turned positive for the first time in 18 calendar quarters. After five years of household deleveraging, credit-driven consumption growth is back, and consumer overspending could spike if consumers start to worry about inflation as consumers chase rising prices.

????Inflation is likely to lead to stock market multiple compression, the very opposite of what most Wall Street strategists are calling for. Last year saw both growth and inflation accelerating, leading optimistic investors to assign higher price-to-earnings ratio multiples to stocks and driving prices higher. Now commodity inflation is rising, but U.S. growth is showing signs of slowing. This is not a good place to be, and not an easy one to work out of, and no politician wants to hear that the best policy option is to sit tight and wait it out. This increases the risk of new tinkering by the Fed.

????Thanks to over-optimistic Wall Street projections, investors are not positioned for slower growth and stock price multiple compression. McCullough says commodity prices seem to be front-running Fed policy -- an "inflation trade" that could explode if Yellen reverses the taper. Broad measures of inflation, such as CRB prices, continue to make higher lows as stock prices decline.